After a disappointing season last fall for this column, things got off to an even worse start in Week 0. One of the 2 players I targeted on the prop market injured himself during his first play on the field and missed the rest of the game. The other, Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson, showed nothing that justified an offseason of hype. And then UNLV almost blew it against an FCS squad in Dan Mullen’s debut.
Let’s see how Week 1 goes and then make adjustments from there.
I gave my thoughts on the slate of games earlier this week. From a bettor’s perspective, here’s what I’m targeting.
As always, the best price at the time of publication is listed in parentheses, but shop around at any of your preferred sports betting apps.
Last week: 0-2
Last season: 33-37
Week 1 schedule, odds
SDS is a hub this season with live, up-to-date college football betting odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every Week 1 game below.
Bet Tulane -5.5 vs. Northwestern (-108 via DraftKings)
Over the last 10 seasons, Northwestern has ended the year with a top-25 defense by SP+ standards 7 times. In the 3 seasons the Wildcats didn’t have a top-25 defense, they posted a combined record of 8-28. All 3 of those campaigns have come in the last 4 years.
As we move further and further from the Pat Fitzgerald era, things will get bleak. Fitz was an outstanding coach who constantly had Northwestern punching well above its weight class. After a splendid 8-5 season in David Braun’s debut, the Wildcats fell to 4-8 last fall. SP+ projects a defense that sits outside the top 35 and a program that will maybe win 4 games.
Since the start of the 2021 season, Northwestern is 9-27 straight up in games where it closed as an underdog. Over that same stretch, Northwestern is 8-11 against the spread as a road underdog. Braun went 3-2 ATS as a road dog in his debut season, then 2-3 last fall.
The question of each Northwestern season is always the same: Does the defense have enough to make up for what the offense always lacks?
I don’t think that question will be any different in 2025, even though SMU transfer Preston Stone takes the reins at quarterback. Stone was benched early last year for ineffective play. I’m curious how he looks in a new environment.
Northwestern also has to deal with the ATS monster that is Jon Sumrall. Over the last 4 seasons, Sumrall is 28-14 against the spread — one of the best marks of any coach in the country. SP+ projects Tulane to field a top-30 offense this season and would set the spread for this game at 12.3 points in favor of the Green Wave on a neutral field. Give Tulane a couple of extra points for playing at home and there’s a 2-score gap between these 2.
Bet Notre Dame team total over 24.5 points (-115 via Caesars)
Notre Dame has scored at least 27 points in 28 of its last 36 games under head coach Marcus Freeman. The Irish did it in 12 of their 16 games last fall in spite of a rather limited offensive profile. With Riley Leonard quarterbacking the offense, Notre Dame had a game manager. And yet the Irish were still one of the most efficient scoring units in all of college football.
Notre Dame averaged 0.571 points per play last year — the fourth-best mark in the country. It was not an explosive pass game (seventh percentile in explosive pass play rate) but rather a dynamic run game. The Irish ranked in the 87th percentile in non-explosive EPA per play. They also ranked in the top 15% of all teams for opportunity rate, line yards per carry, and stuff rate.
The offensive line once again projects as a mauling unit. Home run-hitting superstar Jeremiyah Love returns in the backfield. And now a quarterback with a blue-chip arm takes the reins. If there’s any improvement in the pass game, this offense becomes one of the more dangerous in all of college football. All the pieces are there.
It’s fair to question how this will all look in Week 1 on the road against a ranked opponent, but there are worse places to play for opposing quarterbacks. Miami is 10-16-1 ATS at home since the start of the 2021 season. Only 3 ACC teams (Stanford among them) have been worse. Miami has suffered 6 outright defeats as a home favorite during that stretch.
Last season, the Hurricanes ranked in the 16th percentile for explosive run rate allowed and the 19th percentile for explosive pass rate allowed, per Game on Paper. Miami also ranked 85th nationally in points per play allowed (0.408). In its first game under a new defensive coordinator, I like the Irish to score.
You also have to consider the potential for short fields resulting from Miami offensive turnovers. Carson Beck threw 12 interceptions last season at Georgia, he had 20 turnover-worthy plays, and this will be his first game back after surgery on his throwing arm.
Bet Michigan -34.5 vs. New Mexico (-115 via BetMGM)
The Wolverines were a 10-point favorite or greater in 4 games last season. They covered the spread in only 1 of those outings — a 50-6 throttling of Northwestern. The offense was bad. In fact, the offense was offensively bad. As the pass game evaporated into thin air, the offense cratered. Michigan finished 101st in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. The Wolverines ranked 105th in passing success rate.
The hope is that 5-star freshman Bryce Underwood can start to fix that. Coach Sherrone Moore said this week that Underwood “earned” the right to start for the Wolverines as a first-year player, beating out Fresno State transfer Mikey Keene.
Michigan still has a bounty of talent all over the field, particularly on defense. SP+ projects the Wolverines to have the best defense in America, which feels a tad aggressive but likely speaks to the quality within that unit built up by years of elite recruiting. If the offense is anything resembling even competent, Michigan is going to be pretty competitive. If the offense is bad, Michigan is going to be pretty frustrating. So on and so forth.
In Week 1, Michigan should be able to overwhelm New Mexico with its size on defense. The Lobos are breaking in a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator, and a new quarterback. Jason Eck brought 11 Big Sky transfers with him from FCS Idaho to New Mexico, and the belief is that his first team will try to win on the ground with physicality. That doesn’t match up well in this game. If they out-physical the Wolverines, Moore will find himself in scalding-hot water.
Michigan has been one of the best in the country against the spread over the last 4 seasons. New Mexico, with just a 36.2% cover rate, has been one of the worst. SP+ projects a 41-point win. With nearly a touchdown of space to work with between that number and the one currently provided by Vegas, I like the Wolverines to open the Underwood era on a positive note.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
