Week 3 was wildly fun. And things started to turn around in this column. I’m aiming for a 3-for-3 week this week to get back to even on the season.
Here are your best bets for Week 4.
As always, the best price at the time of publication is listed in parentheses, but shop around at any of your preferred sports betting apps.
Last week: 2-1
2025 season: 4-7
2024 season: 33-37
Week 4 schedule, odds
SDS is your one-stop shop this season, with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every Week 4 game below.
Bet Memphis +7 vs. Arkansas (+100 via BetMGM)
The Tigers are 3-0 against the spread so far this season, and they are beating the number by an average of 9.7 points per game. They have done it with complementary football. The defense is holding opposing offenses to a 34.3% success rate, and it has effectively limited explosives on standard downs. The offense, according to Game on Paper, ranks 17th in EPA per play, ranking among the most explosive in the country.
Memphis held UT Chattanooga 1.7 yards per carry below its season average on the ground. Memphis held Georgia State 2.5 yards per carry below its season average. And Memphis held Troy 2.2 yards per carry below its season average. Opponents have been horrible on third down against Memphis because they just haven’t been winning enough on early downs. And that’s a recipe that produces turnovers. Memphis has a takeaway in every game so far and it has only given the ball away twice. If the Tigers can wall up to hold the Arkansas ground game in check, it might be able to force some errors out of the Arkansas offense in passing downs.
Given what we just saw from the Arkansas defense, Memphis should be able to play its style when it has the ball. That means ground and pound and open up opportunities to hit chunk plays. At home, I like the Tigers to give Arkansas a fight.
Bet Vanderbilt -26.5 vs. Georgia State (-110 via BetMGM)
Now that we’re a few weeks into the season, it’s worth examining who has done what, judged against expectations. Vanderbilt is 3-0 against the spread so far, beating the number by an average of 19 points a game. Quarterback Diego Pavia has morphed this group into an almost Herculean outfit when viewed as an underdog. Last week’s takedown of South Carolina was Vandy’s seventh outright victory as a betting underdog since the start of the 2024 season. That’s outrageous. Vandy was much less profitable as a favorite last year, going 1-2 ATS with an outright defeat at Georgia State on Sept. 14, 2024.
This year’s version of Georgia State will have a hard time replicating that success. The 2025 ‘Dores are better than they were in 2024. The 2025 Panthers are worse. They are 0-3 ATS to start the year. They got obliterated by Ole Miss in the opener, losing by 56 points as a 33.5-point dog. They lost by 22 to Memphis in Week 2, and then won by just 16 points against a Murray State team that was a 32-point dog.
In Bill Connelly’s SP+ rating of every single college football program, Murray State ranks below a handful of NAIA schools and even a few D3 schools. The Racers were in a 1-possession game well into the second quarter before self-destructing. Georgia State threw interceptions on consecutive drives and Murray State went safety, fumble, missed field goal to squander any opportunity to make the Panthers pay.
Ole Miss ran for 301 sack-adjusted yards at 7 per carry on the Panthers. Memphis ran for 207 at 5.3 a carry. Murray State ran for just 3.4 per carry, but its top 2 runners gained 117 yards on 24 attempts with a touchdown. Vanderbilt should maul this team at the line of scrimmage.
Bet UTEP -4.5 vs. UL Monroe (-115 via ESPN Bet)
This number opened at UTEP -1.5 and it will probably continue to rise throughout the week, so jumping on the early line is key here. The Miners just held their own on the road against a Texas team with top-tier SEC athletes all over the field. Lay the blame for the Longhorns’ offensive struggles at the feet of Arch Manning, sure, but Texas averaged 5.2 yards per rushing attempt (adjusted for sacks) the week prior and only 4 against UTEP. Quarterback Malachi Nelson also completed 67% of his passes and created several huge chunk plays against the Texas secondary. Now, the Miners go up against a ULM team that allowed Alabama’s 3 quarterbacks to combine for 371 yards and 7 touchdowns on 29-of-33 passing. The Warhawks might be pretty bad. In Week 1, UL Monroe scored only 29 points against a really poor Saint Francis team from the FCS level. According to Game on Paper, UL Monroe ranks 116th nationally in net EPA per play.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
