I gave my thoughts on the best early lines to bet for this week on Tuesday. In that piece, I wrote that this weekend feels like it has the potential to frame the College Football Playoff conversation for the rest of the season. Here are your best bets for Week 5.
As always, the best price at the time of publication is listed in parentheses, but shop around at any of your preferred sports betting apps.
Last week: 2-1
2025 season: 6-8
2024 season: 33-37
Week 5 schedule, odds
SDS is your one-stop shop this season, with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every Week 5 game below.
Bet Penn State-Oregon total over 51.5 points (-115 via DraftKings)
Oregon’s offense has been white-hot to open the season. The Ducks are fifth nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. Offensive coordinator Will Stein hasn’t been shy with the attack, and his play calling has built up quite a bit of confidence within the unit. The Ducks have done it by air and by ground, averaging 250 yards a game with the run and 270 a game with the pass. They’re seventh in per-rush efficiency and 11th in per-pass efficiency.
On the other side, Penn State has been much more bland. Penn State is 13th nationally in EPA per run, but the pass game has been mediocre. Quarterback Drew Allar sits 106th in Total QBR among qualified FBS passers. He sits 99th in EPA. Penn State ranks 80th in EPA per dropback and 42nd in passing success rate.
Andy Kotelnicki has been plain against a schedule that Penn State could sleepwalk through. That, plus a bye week leading into the game, gives the Penn State offense a strategic advantage. I think this game could look a lot like last year’s Big Ten title fight, when the Ducks won 45-37 in a game that featured 55 first-half points. Oregon loves to race out of the gates — averaging 29.3 first-half points through its first 4 games — and coach Dan Lanning loves to go for 2 early in games. Penn State will have plenty of juice with this being a night game and a whiteout.
Bet Mizzou -43.5 vs. UMass (-115 via ESPN Bet)
Temple scored 42 points against UMass. The Owls have scored 27 combined points against the other 2 FBS teams they have played this season.
Iowa scored 47 points against UMass a week after managing only 13 against Iowa State.
Yes, this is a massive number. And Mizzou has been favored by at least 40 points only 1 other time in the Eli Drinkwitz era. However, Mizzou should slice through this UMass defense, which hasn’t shown an ability to stop anything yet this season. And because of the Minutemen’s inability to string together drives when they have the ball, Mizzou should get plenty of opportunities to score.
On the season, 18 of the Minutemen’s 31 drives (58%) have ended in either a 3-and-out, a turnover on downs, or a giveaway. Despite a 56% run rate in a game that was over at halftime, Iowa still managed 71 plays against UMass. Only 2 FBS teams have run more offensive plays this season than Mizzou, which averages 79 a game. Quarterback Beau Pribula and the passing attack are going to have a monster day against this defense, and coach Eli Drinkwitz will get to pick the score. This could look like the opener when it’s all said and done.
Bet Arkansas first-half team total over 14.5 points vs. Notre Dame (+104 via FanDuel)
The team total for Arkansas is set at 29.5, which is a tad too rich for my blood. This first half number looks much more appealing. The Irish have been bad, particularly in second quarters this season. Miami scored 14 points in the second quarter of a rain-soaked opener. Texas A&M then scored 21 points in the second quarter of its game in South Bend. And last week, Purdue put up 16 in the second quarter.
Arkansas, meanwhile, is averaging 30.5 points per game in the first half, and it has scored at least 21 points in the second quarter in 3 of its 4 games. No one has figured out how to slow down quarterback Taylen Green, who is averaging 9.5 yards per pass attempt and ranks second in the country with 18 explosive runs this season.
Notre Dame ranks 130th out of 136 FBS teams in EPA per dropback faced this season. According to Game on Paper, the Irish are in the 13th percentile for explosive pass rate allowed. Expect Arkansas to start hot and hunt big plays to keep a reeling defense on its heels.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
