The 2025-26 college football season has just 3 games remaining. The College Football Playoff semifinals are set, featuring the top overall seed in the field and 3 teams that have fought their way through the entirety of the bracket to this point.
With a thumping of Alabama in the quarters, Indiana became the first team to win a game after sitting idle in the opening round. Since the format switched to 12 teams, squads that received a first-round bye are now 1-7 outright.
The Hoosiers match up with Oregon for a Big Ten rematch in 1 of 2 semifinal games. Two red-hot teams that have upset titans to earn their keep battle in the other semifinal.
Here’s how to bet the early market for that game.
Last week: 3-1
2025 season: 56-70-1
2024 season: 84-69-1
CFP Semifinals schedule, odds
At SDS, we’ve got you covered all season with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every CFP semifinal game below.
CFP Semifinal Round picks
You can find my early bets for the CFP’s semifinal round below. After that, I’ll break down the Fiesta Bowl. You can find my preview of the Peach Bowl between Oregon and Indiana here.
Ole Miss vs. Miami — Fiesta Bowl
Ole Miss has won 2 games without its head coach. Miami is the first double-digit seed to win a game in the CFP, and it has done so twice. Considering Ohio State was the favorite to win the title coming into the Playoff, no one expected this side of the bracket to look like this at this juncture.
But we have two teams that have gotten here with a couple of intangibles. In the case of the Rebels, determination has colored this Playoff run. As for the Hurricanes, we are once again seeing what happens when a team (and, more specifically, a unit) gets hot.
Starting with Ole Miss. Lane Kiffin chose to walk away from the team after the Egg Bowl. Noise surrounded how that would negatively impact the Rebels in the bracket and in the betting markets. Inside their building, the team rallied around those who stayed. Following the 39-34 win over Georgia, players spoke to reporters about how Kiffin’s antics had rubbed them the wrong way and how Pete Golding had galvanized the group.
The belief in one another was on full display in the second half. Ole Miss trailed Georgia 21-12 at the break after giving up all 21 points in the second quarter. The first half ended in disaster when the Rebels squandered a field goal opportunity by letting the clock run out. The response in the second half suggested this group is tighter than ever. It also suggested Golding has some serious chops. Ole Miss outscored the Dawgs 7-3 in the third and then 20-10 in the fourth. Over the final 30 minutes, Ole Miss outgained Georgia 7.7 yards per play to 3.9.
On New Year’s Eve, a scoreless first quarter preluded a Miami hurricane in the second quarter, when a pick-6 from Keionte Scott helped Miami open up a 14-0 lead at half. Miami’s defense was outstanding, as was the case in the first-round win at Texas A&M.
Ohio State managed 9 rushing attempts for a net loss of 3 yards over the game’s first 30 minutes. The onus was put squarely on quarterback Julian Sayin, who threw for 157 yards, but was sacked 3 times and threw the interception.
The Buckeyes were more efficient on a per-play basis, but 4 of their 6 first-half possessions failed to cross midfield. Miami opened the game with a 3-and-out, then punched the Buckeyes off the field in 4 plays after the Hurricane offense fumbled in the red zone.
Sayin was sacked on the opening drive. Tailback Bo Jackson was stuffed for a 2-yard loss on the second drive to get Ohio State off-schedule. On the third drive, Miami gave up a 59-yard completion to Jeremiah Smith, then sacked Sayin and picked him off on consecutive plays after that.
Because of the Miami defensive front, the Hurricanes set a tone for the game that Ohio State was never quite able to match.
In 2 Playoff games, the Hurricanes have 12 sacks and 16 tackles for loss. Rueben Bain Jr. (4 sacks) and Akheem Mesidor (3.5) have dominated both offensive lines they have faced — arguably 2 of the sport’s best offensive lines.
The defense has done this all season, to be clear. Miami ranks in the 96th percentile for non-explosive EPA per play allowed, per Game on Paper, thanks in large part because it ranks in the 96th percentile for havoc rate. The ‘Canes set up a ton of third-and-longs and then tee off on opponents once they get there.
All year, this has been one of the best defensive fronts in football. Unfortunately for their Playoff opponents, they have also gotten hot. Or, hotter.
The Ole Miss run game can be more sporadic than one would like. The Rebels rank in the 58th percentile for EPA per run, and they’re in the 41st percentile or worse for stuff rate, line yards per carry, and opportunity rate. They create explosives well and when Trinidad Chambliss is hot, there is little a defense can do, but he has to have time. No guarantees there against this Miami front.
Miami wins the field position battle. And it gives up just 0.97 points per drive to the opposition. Only 26% of all drives against the Miami defense this season have gained a first down inside the Miami 40 or scored on an explosive play (defined as a quality drive).
The Ole Miss offense is first nationally in quality drive rate with a near-60% clip, per cfb-graphs. Chambliss, coming off a 362-yard performance against Georgia that featured 13 straight completions at one point, appears to be peaking at the perfect time.
A couple of things are worth noting in this “good on good” battle. The first is that the Miami defense has performed significantly better over the course of the season than the Georgia defense, especially against the pass. While Georgia’s defense was much-improved from the first meeting with Ole Miss, the Dawgs still rank 34th in adjusted EPA per play. Miami is 15th. Georgia is also 71st in EPA per dropback allowed. Miami is 18th.
If the Hurricanes can eliminate some of the down-to-down efficiency, Ole Miss will hit some explosives, but it’ll also open itself up to a mistake or 2. We also have to consider the impact coaching changes will have on the Ole Miss offense. Several assistants have moved on to LSU. Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. is pulling double-duty still, but his attention is significantly more split now with the transfer portal officially open.
Miami’s script is to dominate the line of scrimmage and run the football. That favors a lower point total in a game like this, and it also favors Miami outright.
Ole Miss can’t stop the run.
I’ve been pounding the table about this fact for weeks. We cashed bets on Tulane and Georgia running backs clearing their rushing totals in each of the first 2 games Ole Miss has played.
Miami running back Mark Fletcher Jr. powered the U to a win in College Station with a 172-yard performance and a 56-yard carry in the fourth. He had 90 yards on the ground in the win over Ohio State, when Miami became the first team all season to score more than 16 points on the Buckeyes.
The Rebels rank 130th in rushing success rate allowed, per Game on Paper. The defense ranks in the 14th percentile for explosive run rate allowed and in the 19th percentile for early-downs EPA per play.
Signs point to Miami being able to control the line of scrimmage, lean on the Ole Miss defense, and force Chambliss to make game-winning throws with his arm. Chambliss has been hot in the CFP, but he has faced a pair of overmatched defenses. Tulane had a mediocre coverage unit with a decent pass rush. Georgia had a decent coverage team with a mediocre pass rush. Miami pairs elite with elite. Tackling is shaky, but Ohio State couldn’t expose that flaw with the best receiver in the sport.
I’m laying the points with Miami and taking the under.
Bet Miami -3 (-118 via DraftKings)
Bet Miami-Ole Miss total under 51.5 points (-105 via DraftKings)
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
