Two first-round College Football Playoff games were uninteresting. Two were amazing.
Now, we turn to a quarterfinal round that is stuffed with exciting matchups. Last season, the team that had the first-round bye lost every quarterfinal game. Only 1 of the 4 teams with a first-round bye covered the spread last season.
Those results led to a format change that took away byes from the highest-ranked conference champions and gave them to the 4 highest-ranked teams, period. Three of those 4 teams are favored by at least 7 points this time around.
Will we see more rust from the teams that had extra days off? Or will we see more chalk?
Here’s how to bet the early market ahead of the Playoff’s second round.
Last week: 2-2
2025 season: 53-69-1
2024 season: 84-69-1
CFP Quarterfinals schedule, odds
At SDS, we’ve got you covered all season with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every CFP quarterfinal game below.
CFP Quarterfinal Round picks
You can find my early bets for the CFP’s quarterfinal round below. After that, I’ll break down each game on the card.
Ohio State vs. Miami — Cotton Bowl
This game could be the most entertaining of the quarterfinal round, but it features the largest point spread of any game and the smallest point total. To that end, it’s also the most difficult game for me to handicap because there are so many unknowns with both of these teams.
Do you trust Carson Beck in a “gotta have it” spot against a defensive coordinator (Matt Patricia) who built a sterling reputation on flummoxing quarterbacks? Do you trust Miami being able to run the football against a defense that has not been run on all year? Do you trust the Ohio State offense, coming off an extended break, with a different play caller, to unlock a Miami defense that few have been able to solve over the last month? Do you trust Ohio State to have any sort of rhythm after what we saw in last year’s quarterfinals?
I also think it’s worth pointing out schedules here. Miami has been playing for its life for weeks, and within that stretch of games, the Hurricanes have been tested. Ohio State was not tested prior to the Big Ten title game against Indiana, when it scored just 10 points in defeat. Texas A&M’s schedule ranked 17th, according to ESPN’s FPI, and that feels a little generous given what we saw from the Aggies in their last 2 games. Ohio State’s schedule ranks 25th. Five Big Ten teams lost 8 or more games this season; Ohio State played 3 of them. Conversely, Ohio State saw only 2 of the Big Ten’s other 5 10-win teams in the regular season and those games were both 1-possession affairs at the halftime break.
I’m not here to poo-poo the Buckeyes, but it probably isn’t outlandish to suggest we didn’t really see Ohio State face the fire until the Big Ten title game, and the Buckeyes scored 10 points.
Indiana sacked Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin 5 times in Indianapolis. Miami’s edge rushers look terrifying coming off the win over Texas A&M, when Rueben Bain Jr. and Ahkeem Mesidor combined for 4.5 sacks. Bain was the best player on the field. He finished with 4 tackles for loss and blocked a kick. He probably won’t have the same kind of fuel he had for the A&M game, but if Ohio State struggles to keep him away from Sayin, the Buckeyes are in for a long day.
The main takeaway from Miami’s win over Texas A&M was how it dominated the lines of scrimmage. Miami tailback Mark Fletcher Jr. ran for 172 yards on 17 carries. It’s important to keep in mind that Miami had 85 rushing yards on 21 attempts through the first 3 quarters. Fletcher didn’t cross the 100-yard mark until the Hurricanes’ final drive, when he opened the possession with a 56-yard run. He had 5 carries for 75 yards on Miami’s final, game-winning possession.
Does he find the same success against Ohio State? The Buckeyes gave up 2.8 yards per carry in the regular season (fifth) with a 34.9% rushing success rate (fifth). They held 8 of their 13 opponents under 3 yards per carry and 10 of 13 under 100 total yards. They gave up just 8 runs all season of 20 yards or more and stuffed 21.5% of the runs they faced for no gain or a loss.
Looking at Ohio State’s defensive profile, the strength is the pass defense. The Buckeyes keep teams off schedule without producing a ton of havoc plays. My question is a simple one: Where is Caleb Downs lining up? If Ohio State thinks it can handle Miami’s receivers with an extra man in the box, Miami won’t be able to run the football. I don’t trust Beck enough against Patricia, with extra time to prepare, to back the Canes.
On both sides, I think you have to trust the defenses more because of their abilities to affect the quarterback. I like the point total here.
Bet under 42.5 total points (-112 via DraftKings)
Texas Tech vs. Oregon — Orange Bowl
This is my favorite favorite of the quarterfinal round. I love this spot for the Ducks, and I think the opening round could not have gone any better for those looking to back Oregon to advance to the CFP semis.
Oregon won. Oregon looked unstoppable throughout the first half against James Madison, when it raced to a 34-6 lead. Oregon also welcomed back a handful of receivers who had missed time with injuries recently, so we can expect the Ducks will be the healthiest they’ve been in quite a while when they head to Miami. But Oregon also drew the ire of its head coach with its second-half performance.
“There’s a standard here,” Dan Lanning said after the game. “There’s certainly a standard of performance. Our players know that, and they know what championship football looks like — and the second half didn’t look like that.”
James Madison outscored Oregon 28-17 in the second half, and although it never threatened the result, it did enough to drive this spread down. If Oregon wins 51-14 instead of 51-34, the number here is probably in the 3.5 range.
I think Oregon wins by at least 4, so I would have been taking the Ducks in that scenario regardless, but I appreciate the extra security here. We have plenty of instances where Lanning is able to motivate his team and smash expectations. Don’t expect Lanning to take it easy on his team over the next week-plus.
Oregon’s passing game poses problems. Major problems. Dante Moore, who could be one of the first players drafted in this year’s NFL Draft, will be the best quarterback Texas Tech has faced all season. And it isn’t particularly close.
The Red Raiders faced a bevy of run-oriented quarterbacks this season — Devon Dampier, Bear Bachmeier, Avery Johnson. While fine quarterbacks for mid-tier teams, most of the teams Tech played did not have pure drop-back passers who could beat it. Those that did challenged the Red Raiders. Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt threw for 319 yards in a win. Oregon State’s Maalik Murphy threw for 281 yards. Kansas’s Jalon Daniels completed 27 of his 33 passes for 255 yards and 2 scores.
Tech’s corners haven’t been challenged down the field the way Oregon’s skill players will challenge them. Should Evan Stewart make his season debut, the Ducks have 4 legitimate options the Texas Tech secondary will have to worry about down the field before we even get to Malik Benson, who has 10 catches for 221 yards and 3 touchdowns in his last 2 games.
The Red Raider defense was the driving force behind its 12-win, Big 12 championship-clinching season, and their ability to completely neutralize ground games was as large a driving force in their success as any, but we haven’t seen this team matched up against an offense that can attack vertically like Oregon can.
And there are questions about Tech’s ability to match scores if this game requires touchdowns over field goals.
In 3 games against the 2 Utah-based teams Tech played, the Red Raiders made 14 trips to the red zone and scored just 5 touchdowns, underscoring a season-long issue. Texas Tech gets touchdowns on just 56.2% of its red zone trips, one of the worst rates in the country. The Red Raiders can’t afford empty possessions against the Ducks.
Bet Oregon -1 (-110 via Fanatics)
Indiana vs. Alabama — Rose Bowl
The rematch between Oklahoma and Alabama went to the Crimson Tide in a stunning manner. Alabama fell down 17-0 and then scored 27 unanswered to kill off a team that had previously been pretty hard to kill. (It was corny, but it was true…)
While I wouldn’t go so far as to call the Oklahoma defense overrated like some people, I do tend to agree that the 34 points the Crimson Tide scored in Norman seem like fool’s gold. Oklahoma’s edge was its special teams advantage, but that advantage evaporated in the first round. The punting game was unreliable. A dynamite kicker missed 2 of his 3 kicks. Alabama began 2 possessions in plus territory — both produced points — and started 2 other possessions past its 35-yard line.
With how ineffective the Alabama offense had been, giving up excellent field position over and over was among the biggest reasons OU lost.
Alabama started 7 drives at its 25-yard line or worse. Four of those possessions failed to produce a single first down. All but 1 ended in a punt.
Indiana is among the best in the country at halting drives. It is also the best in the nation at limiting points when opposing offenses reach scoring position. The Hoosiers give up 1.8 points per scoring opportunity. No other team in the FBS is under 2. IU has just 8 giveaways in 13 games, so if trends hold, the Crimson Tide are going to have to move the ball on the nation’s 12th-ranked efficiency defense and then finish off drives against the nation’s best point-preventing defense if it does manage to cross the IU 40.
I don’t see it.
Bet under 48.5 total points (-110 via BetMGM)
Georgia vs. Ole Miss — Sugar Bowl
All season long, Georgia has been one of the best second-half teams in the country. And, really, we’ve seen Georgia be an excellent adjust-and-adapt team over the last couple of years under Kirby Smart. While the pass game is a little iffy for the Dawgs — 5.4 yards per pass over the last 2 games is concerning — I think this is the spot where Ole Miss really feels the loss of Lane Kiffin.
This is a different Georgia team from the one Ole Miss faced in Athens earlier in the season. Since Ole Miss scored 35 on the Bulldogs, no one has scored more than 21. Georgia has held each of its last 4 opponents under 14 points. Georgia has also allowed just 2 first-half touchdowns in the 6 games it has played since facing Ole Miss.
Against Tulane in the opening round, Ole Miss was able to do what it wanted. New guys in new spots weren’t asked to step outside their comfort zone much. Is Pete Golding up to the task of rallying the troops at halftime if the Rebels are down 17-3 and guys start thinking about where they’re going next fall, and then pushing the right buttons in the second half to actually get them over the top?
The first meeting with Ole Miss was also the best game of the season for Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton. Stockton completed 26 of his 31 passes for 289 yards and 4 scores without an interception. He ran for 59 yards and another score. He pushed the ball deep. He looked confident. He looked aggressive.
And there’s every reason to think he could do those same things again. Ole Miss can’t stop the run. Though the overall offense didn’t have a good day, Tulane running back Jamauri McClane did his part, rushing 15 times for 84 yards. He was just the latest in a long line of players who had decent-to-good days against the Rebels’ defense.
Kamario Taylor and Fluff Bothwell combined for 253 rushing yards on 37 carries for Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl. The Citadel had a player rush for 53 yards on 7 carries against Ole Miss. Oklahoma had a back who finished with 109 yards on 9 carries against Ole Miss. Georgia had 3 players finish with at least 50 rushing yards on at least 4.2 yards per carry.
That group can’t stop the run.
Georgia should control the line of scrimmage.
Bet Georgia -6.5 (-112 via FanDuel)
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
