Florida thumbed its nose up at points in the fourth quarter of Saturday’s loss to Georgia. The Gators turned down an opportunity to kick a field goal and go up 23-17 — a decision that absolutely did not come back to bite them in the rear.
And our Florida team total prop (20.5) missed by half a point.
Bad beats are weekly at this point and pain is the only familiar friend. But November is here, Christmas time is around the corner, and Mariah Carey beckons. Sounds like hope.
Maybe there’s a run to be had. Let’s take it a week at a time, starting with the early Week 11 market.
Last week: 2-5
2025 season: 35-43-1
2024 season: 84-69-1
Week 11 schedule, odds
At SDS, we’ve got you covered all season with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every Week 11 game below.
Week 11 picks
You can find my early bets for the week below. After that, I’ll break down each game on the card.
UMass at Akron
It’s a Tuesday night kick — MACtion, baby — so get in early. The Minutemen are winless on the year and they haven’t really come close. The last time out, UMass lost to Central Michigan 38-13. Akron beat the Chippewas by 6 earlier this year. UMass also lost by 7 to a Buffalo team Akron beat by 8.
But Akron has also been otherwise helpless for much of the season. The Zips gave up 42 points to Ball State, 45 to Toledo, and 68 in a shutout loss at Nebraska earlier this year. Akron trailed Buffalo 10-3 at the half and won thanks in part to 5 Buffalo turnovers.
Neither team knows how to stop opposing offenses. Akron gives up 2.4 points per drive and ranks 98th in allowed success rate. UMass gives up 3.2 points per drive and ranks 129th in allowed success rate. The assumption would be that against weak defenses, the offenses would roll, but neither team knows how to move the ball efficiently either.
Akron is 120th nationally in offensive success rate. UMass has the fourth-worst success rate in the FBS. UMass has constantly had to chase games, so its rushing numbers are abysmal. Quarterback AJ Hairston threw 51 times in the loss to CMU.
This just feels like too many points for 2 terrible teams on a weeknight. The Zips are a favorite for only the second time this season and, in the first game, they lost outright by 14. Akron can’t stop the run, and the one time this season UMass didn’t have to abandon the run, it had a back pop off for 179 yards.
Bet UMass +11.5 (-110 via ESPN Bet)
No. 2 Indiana at Penn State
Penn State was a 20-point underdog to Ohio State but only a 14-point underdog to Indiana. That’s curious. Even more curious: the Nittany Lions are a 14-point dog immediately after losing to Ohio State by 24 and getting blanked in the second half. The only ATS win Penn State has all season was at Iowa. Seven ATS losses in 8 games.
Indiana is 6-3 ATS. The 3 losses: at Iowa, Michigan State (by 1 point), and Old Dominion in the opener.
IU is coming off a 55-10 demolition in Maryland. Penn State is officially dead. The Nittany Lions have now lost 5 straight, and I don’t think a boost from the home fans will help enough to make this game competitive. IU is a buzzsaw on offense and Penn State simply doesn’t have the juice to keep up.
PSU scored 14 in the second quarter against Ohio State to put a scare into the Buckeyes, but that quarter featured an Ohio State turnover that started PSU at the Ohio State 13 and directly led to 7 points. Penn State still averaged 4 yards per play in the frame.
In the second half, Ohio State played clean football and Penn State gained 60 yards on 28 snaps. The Buckeyes had 4 sacks (all in the final 30 minutes) and the PSU passing game averaged 5.2 yards per play.
Indiana’s defense is extremely physical at the point of attack and generates a ton of havoc. If Penn State isn’t fully committed to the game — which is a fair concern — it could get pushed around.
Road games haven’t been a problem at all this year for IU, which has a 63-10 win at Illinois and a 30-20 win at Oregon to go with last week’s drubbing. I think Indiana keeps rolling.
Bet Indiana -15.5 (-110 via bet365)
No. 8 BYU at No. 9 Texas Tech
A top-10, unbeaten team is a 2-score dog on the road. That tells us everything we need to know about BYU, which has built consecutive 8-0 starts to seasons on the back of a “whatever it takes” play style.
The Cougars beat Colorado by 3 on the road earlier this year. They needed 2 overtime periods to beat Arizona on the road, and they had to rally from a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit just to get to overtime. And they scored 14 points in the span of 41 seconds in the fourth quarter to beat Iowa State in Ames.
BYU had a similar start to its season last year, capitalizing on opponent mistakes to start 9-0 and climb as high as No. 7 in the polls. It then lost 2 straight in November to fall out of the Big 12 race.
Texas Tech has responded nicely to its first loss of the season, thumping Oklahoma State 42-0 and then pulling away from Kansas State over the weekend to win 43-20. Tech trailed 7-0 after the first quarter and won the final 45 minutes 43-13. Starting quarterback Behren Morton returned from a 2-game absence to throw for 249 yards and 2 scores in the win.
I didn’t buy BYU last year amid its start. I don’t buy BYU this year. But I also can’t deny that the Cougars seem to find ways when they need to. As such, I’m looking at the total instead of the spread. Texas Tech might roll if its defense forces some turnovers, which it has done (20) all season. The offense has scored at least 40 points in 6 of its 9 games this year, including half of its conference games.
And even though this game is a noon ET kick, Lubbock should be rocking after hosting ESPN’s College GameDay for just the second time ever. GameDay came in 2008 when that magical Mike Leach team beat No. 1 Texas, 39-33, and Michael Crabtree engineered one of the most iconic moments in school history.
BYU isn’t Texas, and it isn’t the top team in the country, but I think a similarly electric game is possible if BYU — plus-10 in the turnover department this year — doesn’t give Tech any freebies.
Bet over 52.5 total points (-110 via Fanatics)
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 19 Missouri
Mike Elko and his red-hot Aggies are coming off a bye week, presumably as healthy as they’ve been all season. Conversely, Mizzou will be playing its first game of the season without starting quarterback Beau Pribula.
Pribula was knocked out of the 17-10 loss to Vanderbilt 2 weeks ago, thrusting true freshman Matt Zollers into action. Zollers completed 14 of his 23 passes for 138 yards and a score in relief of Pribula. He showed some promise, and the staff has had 2 weeks to get him ready.
But A&M has also had 2 weeks to prepare for the new quarterback, and the prospect of this Aggie pass rush against this Tiger front is heavily tilted in favor of Texas A&M.
Pribula faced pressure on more than a third of his dropbacks this season. He was sacked 17 times, including 4 times each by Kansas and UMass (!!) and 3 times by Auburn. In the SEC, only 3 qualified passers have faced a higher pressure rate on their dropbacks this season than Pribula.
If A&M sends numbers at Zollers, how does he handle it? Ideally, Mizzou would be able to lean on its best offensive player, tailback Ahmad Hardy, but that hasn’t been working lately, either. Hardy has been held under 100 rushing yards and under 5 yards per carry in 3 consecutive games. He opened the season with at least 100 yards in each of his first 5 games, and 4 of those outings saw him gain at least 5 yards a carry.
Texas A&M ranks top 30 in rushing success rate allowed this season. The Aggies allow a 35.8% success rate on rushing plays. They also rank among the stingiest defenses in the conference on standard downs.
We know the Aggies can score. They have at least 40 in 5 of their 8 games this season. Mizzou’s offense had been struggling to score even before the Pribula injury; Mizzou has averaged 21.5 points per game against SEC competition, with 1 of the 4 games featuring 2 overtime periods.
Mizzou could have been a live upset threat here with a healthy offense. Without Pribula, A&M has too much.
Bet Texas A&M -7 (-105 via BetMGM)
No. 6 Oregon at Iowa
Indiana found itself in an absolute dog fight with the Hawkeyes in Iowa City earlier this season. Top-ranked teams that travel to Kinnick Stadium usually have to grind it out.
Since the start of the 2015 season, Iowa has hosted 9 top-15 teams for games at Kinnick. The Hawkeyes have outright wins in 4 of those games. The other 5 games have been decided by an average of 6.6 points.
This is a dangerous spot for Oregon, which is still a bit too susceptible to the run for my liking. The Ducks are tied for 64th nationally in rushing success rate allowed. Opposing offensive lines eat yardage against the Ducks’ front, and precious few plays get stopped for losses. Oregon is great at limiting the explosive pass plays, but Iowa is built around a ground attack.
Oregon averages fewer than 5 tackles for loss per game, well outside the top 100 nationally. Iowa has a 62% run rate this season and loves to take the air out of games.
In shutout wins over Wisconsin and Minnesota earlier this year, the Badgers had 27 first-half snaps against the Hawkeye defense while the Gophers had 22. Iowa scored 54 combined points in those opening halves.
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore should be fine for this game after exiting the Wisconsin win on Oct. 25 with a bloody nose. He didn’t return, but coach Dan Lanning hasn’t seemed concerned with his status at any point since. It’ll be good on good, and that looks like another dog fight to me.
Bet Iowa +5.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
Auburn at No. 15 Vanderbilt
Auburn can’t score points. Auburn also doesn’t let other teams score points. Vanderbilt sits on the ball. First team to 17 here wins.
Vanderbilt got a thick slice of humble pie in Austin, Texas, over the weekend. Arch Manning topped 300 yards through the air, exposing the ‘Dores defense as Texas established a 24-10 lead before halftime.
Now, Vanderbilt returns home to host an Auburn team that finally pulled the plug on the Hugh Freeze tenure. I don’t know how much of a coaching bump to give the Tigers here, considering they still have a very large hole at quarterback. But the defense continues to play inspired football and that’s worth something.
Auburn is 1 of only 3 FBS teams this season that have not given up more than 24 points in a game. The other 2 are a combined 17-0 and occupy the top 2 spots in this week’s AP poll. In SEC play, the Tigers allow just 19.5 points per game. Auburn ranks second nationally in rushing success rate allowed and 14th in overall success rate allowed.
That matches up well with a Vanderbilt team that wants to pound the ball. Against SEC opposition this season, Vanderbilt has scored points on 20 of its 46 drives (43.4%). Only 3 of those scoring drives have featured fewer than 5 plays. The other 17 averaged 9.2 snaps. And 11 of those 17 consumed at least 4 minutes of game clock.
What happens with the Auburn offense in the aftermath of Freeze’s dismissal is still a question, but given the quarterback-induced limitations for the Tigers, this should be a low-possession game.
Bet under 46.5 total points (-110 via BetMGM)
LSU at No. 4 Alabama
In college football today, I could make the argument that the staff of on-field assistants around the head coach is more important to a team’s overall success than the head coach himself. Look no further than LSU, where big-name Brian Kelly failed at a brand-name school because he couldn’t figure out how to hire the right assistants.
With the Tigers coming off a bye week, we’re a couple of weeks removed from the curb-stomping that took place in Baton Rouge. The loss to A&M resulted in Kelly’s dismissal, but the firing of offensive coordinator Joe Sloan and the elevation of Alex Atkins — previously the run game coordinator — to primary play-caller is the far more important change that happened. At least as it relates to the rest of this season.
LSU is simply too talented on offense to have underperformed the way it has this season. The Tigers have too much skill talent, and they have a quarterback everyone loved coming into the season. Whether the two-deep is healthy or not remains to be seen, but a bye week should help on that front, too.
Can the Tigers run the football on Alabama? The strength of the Crimson Tide defense is its coverage ability. With Sloan calling plays, LSU could not and would not run the ball. Does that change with Atkins at the controls?
Defensively, I think the Tigers get up off the mat a bit. The last 2 losses saw the defense give up 80 combined points. LSU gave up just 71 combined points in its first 6 outings. It probably isn’t a coincidence that the slide coincides with linebacker Whit Weeks exiting the lineup. Getting Weeks back won’t fix everything, but it’ll help. Weeks seems to be trending in the right direction.
Alabama, off a bye week of its own, will take LSU seriously. The Crimson Tide needed a break after 4 straight games against ranked opponents and a grind-it-out road game against South Carolina.
But I think the interim coach bump is a real thing here for the Tigers. Alabama will be scratching its head a bit in terms of what to expect. LSU will presumably be the healthiest it has been in weeks, and the emotional baggage tied to Kelly’s future has finally been cut free. Getting double-digits here, I’ll back the Tigers.
Bet LSU +10.5 (-108 via DraftKings)
Upset Spot of the Week: Florida State at Clemson
Both of these teams stink and both of them are coached by guys who could realistically be out of a job in a month. That being said, one of them is coming off a resounding victory and the other is coming off a crushing defeat. Does that matter? It might.
Wake Forest has given good ACC teams fits this season. The Deacons lost by just 1 point to Georgia Tech and beat SMU by one point. Florida State waxed them 42-7 last weekend.
Clemson, meanwhile, dominated Duke in terms of per-play efficiency and lost by 1 point. Duke scored 46 points and had a postgame win expectancy of just 6.1%, per SP+. That is alarming.
Yes, Clemson smoked bad North Carolina and Boston College teams to “rescue” its season, but it has lost back-to-back games since doing so. The latest may have been the straw that broke the camel’s back. Is the locker room still listening to coach Dabo Swinney? Does the locker room still respect Swinney? If Clemson quit on its coach over the weekend, Florida State could make a bad situation worse.
Bet Florida State money line (+105 via Caesars)
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
