Betting Stuff: How to bet the opening lines for Week 2

A couple of bad beats, a couple of completely misjudged teams, and a couple of stunners, that’s how the 2025 season begins.

Over the extended holiday weekend, we saw 4 teams lose to lower-ranked or unranked squads. The back half of the preseason AP Poll did exactly what it was supposed to against bad competition. But schools like Texas, Clemson, and Alabama are walking out of Week 1 with egg on their face.

We don’t have the same headline-creating matchups in Week 2, but the potential for chaos is still there. And a few of these games look like they could be mighty entertaining. 

Here’s how to bet the early market for Week 2’s games.

• Last week: 3-6
• 2025 season: 6-7
• 2024 season: 84-69-1

Week 2 schedule, odds

At SDS, we’ve got you covered all season with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every Week 2 game below.

Kent State at Texas Tech

Kent State is really, really bad and Texas Tech is coming off a 67-point performance in its opener. I think the Red Raiders could hit this 59.5-point game total by themselves. 

According to Game on Paper, the Golden Flashes were rusted skid marks on defense a year ago. They ranked 128th out of 134 FBS clubs in opponent-adjusted EPA per play and 130th in defensive success rate. In its season-opener against FCS Merrimack, Kent State fell behind 17-14 with less than 6 minutes to play and then returned a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown to escape with a 21-17 win. One of the least reliable plays in football was the difference between a 22-game losing streak and a Week 1 win. The Kent State defense gave up 14 plays of at least 10 yards and 5 plays of at least 20 yards. 

Now, a leg issue for Red Raiders quarterback Behren Morton is a situation to monitor. But assuming full strength, Texas Tech should feast on this defense. In its opener, Tech ran 59 plays, gained 608 yards (10.3 per play), and scored 67 points. Morton threw 4 scores and missed 2 passes. The offense was an absolute machine. With TCU and North Carolina still to play, Tech might exit Week 1 with the second-best offensive success rate of any FBS team.

As long as Morton is on the field, this should be another lopsided result. 

Bet total over 59.5 points (-102 via DraftKings)

San Jose State at Texas

I was hopeful that the Longhorns’ unsightly performance in Week 1 would reset the market a little for them and bring things back to normalcy, but then the line for this game opened at 37.5 in favor of Texas and that thought flew out the window. Under 35? I’d be looking to back the Horns without a moment’s hesitation. As it stands, I think you consider the Longhorns in a bounce-back spot and wait to see where the line goes throughout the week. 

No one should have been surprised to see Arch Manning struggle in his debut. No one should have been surprised to see Texas in an absolute dog fight. The defenses on both sides had the advantage over young quarterbacks, and not enough pundits were giving proper credit to the Matt Patricia angle of it all. 

In the aftermath of the result, sure, all the talking heads are pointing out how Patricia cut his teeth against the best quarterbacks in the world and will have a leg up on just about every quarterback he sees this year because of it. Ohio State flummoxed Manning thanks to a defensive coordinator who knows how to confuse inexperienced passers and a generational talent in Caleb Downs who makes it that much easier to confuse inexperienced passers. 

Texas probably won’t see a better defense all year. Texas certainly won’t see a better individual defender than Downs. Not a soul on the San Jose State defense can do what Ohio State just did. 

Further, I think we have to factor play-calling into the equation as well. Texas coach Steve Sarkisian was protective of his quarterback to a fault in Week 1. You can understand why he might bring a conservative gameplan into that specific spot. But in Week 2 at home, Sark should be able to lean on the ground game and create advantageous spots for Manning in the passing attack.

Ohio State did not dominate Texas. Remove the 1 sack the Buckeyes recorded and Texas averaged 4.6 yards per rushing attempt. Tre Wisner ran for 80 yards at 5 a pop. On the ground, Texas was winning up front more often than not. It closed the game with a 5.7% stuff rate and an average of 3.6 line yards per carry. No SEC team had a lower percentage of runs stuffed in the opening week of the season. Texas also limited Ohio State to 2.3 yards per rushing attempt and held Jeremiah Smith in check.

In a 16-14 loss to Central Michigan, San Jose State gave up 247 rushing yards at 4.6 a carry. The Chippewas ran 64 plays and only 3 were stopped in the backfield for a loss. 

The Spartans’ first 4 drives of the game were also disastrous — interception, fumble, 3-and-out, interception — and another cold start would be sub-optimal against what might be an angry Texas team.

Texas suffered a loss to a great team that wasn’t nearly as bad as it has been made out to be. The wild, reckless narratives about Manning leading into the game makes up that difference. Under Sarkisian, Texas is 4-2 against the spread when favored by at least 35 points. Manning was responsible for 2 of those results last season when he closed out a 49-point win over UTSA and a 48-point win over UL-Monroe. Something like a 45-7 result here would not surprise me. Texas should dominate the line of scrimmage. 

Bet Texas -35.5 (-110 via FanDuel)

Oklahoma State at Oregon

Following a 27-7 season-opening win over UT Martin, Oklahoma State lost its starting quarterback to a broken foot and its most disruptive defender to a jail cell. 

Hauss Hejny, a TCU transfer, beat third-year quarterback Zane Flores for the job in camp but had to be replaced in the first quarter and never came back. The school confirmed on Friday that he has already had surgery and will be out several weeks. Then, on Saturday, linebacker Wendell Gregory was reportedly arrested for 4 misdemeanor charges of larceny. Gregory had 3 sacks in the Cowboys’ opener. 

The offensive performance was not smooth from the Pokes in Week 1. They averaged just 3 yards per carry against an FCS opponent. Now the Cowboys get to face a loaded Oregon squad in Eugene. 

Oregon was wildly efficient in its 59-13 thrashing of Montana State. The Ducks had an offensive success rate of 62.5% and allowed just a 32.1% success rate to the opposition. Five different running backs had multiple rushing attempts and none of them were named Makhi Hughes — the prized offseason transfer from Tulane. The thinking from some after? Oregon just has better backs. That’s a pretty concerning thought if you’re trying to find ways to slow this offense down.

Under Dan Lanning, Oregon is 14-7 ATS at home. That includes a 9-1 ATS record when favored by at least 25 points. Since winning 12 games in 2021, Mike Gundy’s Cowboys are 4-8 ATS as a road dog. 

These teams are in two different stratospheres.

Bet Oregon -27.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

Ole Miss at Kentucky

The Rebels flattened Georgia State 63-7 despite opening the game with interceptions on 2 of their first 3 drives. After a shaky start, quarterback Austin Simmons settled in, finishing with 341 passing yards and 3 scores. The biggest takeaway from the day was the emergence of a ground game. Kewan Lacy ran 16 times for 108 yards while Logan Diggs went for 91 yards and a score on 7 carries. The Rebels only had 4 instances last season where a running back gained at least 90 yards in a game. In the stunning loss to Kentucky, they ran 29 times for 92 yards.

A one-dimensional offense that couldn’t slow down doomed the Rebels the last time these 2 teams met. I don’t think Kentucky is any better, and Ole Miss sure looks like it has a reliable ground game now. 

The Wildcats also barely survived Toledo at home in their first game. They were outgained 329-305. They were outgained on a per-play basis as well. They turned the ball over twice, threw for just 85 yards on 23 pass attempts, and got hit for a safety. Remove the 79-yard touchdown run from Dante Dowdell in the fourth quarter and the numbers look even worse. 

Kentucky did well to slow the Toledo ground game, but quarterback Tucker Gleason threw for 270 yards. He had 5 completions of at least 20 yards. 

Given what happened last season, Ole Miss should be squarely focused on Kentucky. I’m not as worried about the contrasting styles of play — Ole Miss ran 81 plays in its opener, Kentucky 66 — short-circuiting the offense the way it did a season ago if this run game is legit. 

I can also see Lane Kiffin opting to run it up a tad. Back the Rebels, who should win by at least 2 touchdowns.

 Bet Ole Miss -10 (-110 via bet365)

Kansas at Mizzou

Mizzou has a day’s advantage in terms of rest. Kansas has an edge in that it has already played 2 games. Tiger head coach Eli Drinkwitz will say they treat every opponent the same, but I’d imagine Mizzou’s opening opponent allowed the staff to get a head start on prep for the Jayhawks. 

The Tigers absolutely gashed Central Arkansas. They ran 69 plays and created 12 explosives — 7 through the air and 5 on the ground. Quarterback Beau Pribula was quite impressive in his starting debut. Consider the opponent, of course, but Pribula also put some things on tape that suggested a level of comfort and awareness that should excite the staff. 

Ahmad Hardy ran through faces. Georgia transfer Damon Wilson tormented the Central Arkansas tackles. Mizzou cruised. There were some encouraging signs here.

In Lawrence, Kansas has outscored Fresno State and Wagner 77 to 14 to open the season. Quarterback Jalon Daniels has completed 36 of his 45 pass attempts (80%) for 456 yards and 7 touchdowns with 1 pick. He has yet to do major damage with his legs, but Kansas hasn’t needed that yet. With Daniels on the field, the Jayhawks have a 22% explosive pass play rate through their first 2 games.  

Neither of these defenses have been tested yet. Add in the animosity of the matchup and the lengthy pause to the series — these 2 haven’t played each other since Mizzou left the Big 12 for the SEC — and we have the makings of a dynamite game. 

In all honesty, this is the game that should have gotten College GameDay. I think we could get a back-and-forth thriller. 

Bet over 50.5 total points (-110 via Caesars)

Army at Kansas State

Over the last 5 years, Army and Navy have played power teams in the regular season 11 times. (I’m including Notre Dame in that group.) The service academies are 2-8-1 against the spread in those games. 

Over the last 3 years, Army has played 4 games against power conference opponents and 1 against Notre Dame. The Black Knights lost to Wake Forest by 35 as a 16.5-point dog, they lost by 13 points as a 13-point dog to Syracuse, they lost by 3 points as a 2.5-point dog to Boston College, they lost 62-0 as a 33-point dog to LSU, and they lost by 35 points as a 14-point dog to Notre Dame. 

In Week 1, Army lost a stunner to Tarleton State in double-overtime. Army’s starting quarterback was injured at the end of regulation and its kicker missed 2 field goals in the closing seconds of the fourth and in overtime that paved the way for the Texans’ second-ever win over an FBS team. 

The injury to Army quarterback Dewayne Coleman is worth monitoring, but it early indicators are positive. Army might not be any good regardless of what is going on at the quarterback position, and this might be the week that Kansas State actually looks how folks thought it would in the preseason.

The Wildcats lost a defensive slugfest in Ireland, then returned home and had to immediately fend off a really feisty North Dakota team. K-State won on a go-ahead score in the final minute, and yet it had a postgame win expectancy of nearly 90%, according to Bill Connelly’s SP+. On a per-play basis, K-State outgained North Dakota 6.4 to 4.9. The Wildcats were in the backfield constantly on defense and created 13 explosives from 72 scrimmage plays on offense. Army had trouble slowing down the Tarleton State run game and Avery Johnson got it going through the air against North Dakota. If the Wildcats find some balance, watch out.

Bet Kansas State -17.5 (+100 via FanDuel)

Western Kentucky at Toledo

The Hilltoppers (2-0) are ranked ahead of the Rockets (0-1) in SP+ heading into this matchup, but it’s Toledo that opened as the favorite. And not a slim favorite either; Toledo is sitting around a touchdown favorite at most shops. An SP+ generated line on a neutral field would favor Western Kentucky by nearly 5 points. Give Toledo a couple for home-field advantage and you still have a nearly-10-point gap between Vegas and one of the best models in the sport. 

I side with SP+ here. Toledo played an SEC opponent in its opener and it’ll still see a better quarterback in Week 2 than what it saw in Week 1. WKU’s Maverick McIvor is fun, folks. 

The former Abilene Christian quarterback followed his head coach to Western Kentucky this offseason and has opened the year with 706 yards, 8 scores, and a 70% completion rate through 2 games. McIvor posted a 90.6 QBR in the Toppers’ 55-6 win over FCS North Alabama on Saturday, and he had 401 yards with 3 scores in the opener against Sam Houston. I don’t think we learned anything about Toledo’s defense in Week 1, but I feel comfortable saying McIvor is a more-than-capable quarterback. A win here for the Toppers wouldn’t surprise me.

Bet Western Kentucky +7 (-115 via BetMGM)

Arizona State at Mississippi State

This was a 7-point game in Tempe last season. Blake Shapen threw for 268 yards on the Arizona State defense. ASU’s Sam Leavitt had just 69 passing yards against the Mississippi State defense, which took plenty of lumps later in the year. Arizona State won in large part because tailback Cam Skattebo ran for 262 yards and 3 scores. 

MSU could not contain Skattebo. 

He’s in the NFL now. Leavitt is better. The jury is still out on Mississippi State’s defense, though it did hold Southern Miss to just 3.1 yards per run in the opener. More than anything, there’s reason for some hesitation with Arizona State. 

Head coach Kenny Dillingham admitted after a 38-19 win over Northern Arizona that he was outcoached. The Sun Devils committed 12 penalties at home and went 2-for-10 on third down. They were remarkably all-or-nothing on offense. 

ASU created 17 explosives from 61 offensive snaps. On the non-explosive plays, ASU averaged just 2.6 yards gained. It had a 75-yard completion and a 64-yard completion wiped out because of penalties. Leavitt had a 52-yard run for a score that greatly helped the rushing numbers. Running back Kyson Brown looked great. Wideout Jordyn Tyson looked great. The offense was mostly a 3-man show. 

Mississippi State could be a dangerous spot. 

The Bulldogs led by just 3 points at the half of their opener, but they played a brilliant third quarter, outscoring Southern Miss 21-0 to take control of the game. They ran 28 plays and gained 194 yards compared to just 13 plays for 25 yards from Southern Miss. It was an encouraging sign for Jeff Lebby early in Year 2. Against an Arizona State team that just never really looked comfortable in Week 1, Lebby has an opportunity to capture a signature victory. I don’t know if he’ll get it, but I think the atmosphere in Starkville will be conducive to one.

Bet Mississippi State +6.5 (+102 via ESPN Bet)

Michigan at Oklahoma

Assuming this total stays under 50, it’ll be the 15th consecutive game Michigan has played with a point total below 50. The over cashed in 8 of the previous 14, including the Wolverines’ 34-17 win over New Mexico in Week 1. But that was only the third game since the start of the 2024 season with a total above 46 points. The previous 2 featured 35 and 46 points, respectively. 

Michigan’s defense remains stout. The Wolverines held New Mexico to 75 sack-adjusted rushing yards in Week 1, at just 3 yards a carry. They forced 3 turnovers, turned the Lobos away inside the red zone twice, and only gave up 5 explosives. 

Now, Michigan takes its show on the road for a high-profile showdown and a nighttime kickoff. Freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood completed 21 of his 31 pass attempts in his debut, but Norman at night will be a different animal entirely. Expect some hiccups. 

Oklahoma’s defense was similarly outstanding in Week 1, holding FCS Illinois State to 34 passing yards and just 3.3 yards per play. The Sooners’ passing attack was incredible, but 3.5 sack-adjusted rushing yards per carry is concerning. And Jaydn Ott, the star offseason transfer from Cal, only ran 1 time for a 3-yard loss. 

Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer has yet to face a defense in his starting career like the one he’ll see in Week 2. The quarterback on the other side has yet to experience a game like this one. 

Points will be at a premium. 

Bet under 46.5 total points (-110 via BetMGM)

UCLA at UNLV

UCLA got taken to the woodshed in Week 1. The Bruins were outgained 492-220 in a 43-10 drubbing at the hands of Utah in the Rose Bowl. Nico Iamaleava averaged just 6.2 yards per pass attempt with a 50% completion rate in his Bruins debut. Utah quarterback Devon Dampier did whatever he wanted. UCLA didn’t record a sack and it got a combined 37 rushing yards on 15 carries from the guys around Iamaleava. Utah punted only once and ran out the clock on its final possession. It scored touchdowns on 6 of its other 7 drives, including a 20-play, 80-yard, 9-minute and 44-second trek in the third quarter. 

Entering Year 2 under coach DeShaun Foster, UCLA felt like it was starting over. Very little from last year’s group returned, which made it hard to really believe the late run the Bruins put together to close out 2024 — 4 wins in 6 games — could carry into the new year. 

In the opener, the Bruins looked horrible.

UNLV, meanwhile, has played 2 games already under Dan Mullen and seemed to work some of the kinks out after surviving a scare from FCS Idaho State in Week 0. The Rebels gave up 380 passing yards and 11 explosive pass plays in their first game under Mullen. Against the up-tempo, Phil Longo-led Sam Houston Bearkats last week, the defense surrendered only 187 passing yards and 4 explosives. Sam Houston went 1-for-12 on third down and was sacked 4 times. 

There are still concerns with this UNLV defense. SHSU ran for 5.2 yards per carry, adjusted for sacks. Big plays have burned the Rebels in both of their games thus far. But UCLA has far more questions at this point. 

Bet UNLV money line (+124 via DraftKings)