Betting Stuff: How to bet the opening lines for Week 3

We have a loaded schedule in Week 3, so let’s cut the chit-chat and dive right into the action.

Here’s how to bet the early market for Week 3’s games.

• Last week: 6-4
• 2025 season: 12-11
• 2024 season: 84-69-1

Week 3 schedule, odds

At SDS, we’ve got you covered all season with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every Week 3 game below.

No. 4 Oregon at Northwestern

Oregon has been absolutely spectacular to open the 2025 season. The Ducks handled Montana State in their opener (28-point favorite, 46-point win) and then obliterated Mike Gundy’s overmatched Oklahoma State squad (28.5-point favorite, 66-point win.) The Ducks are off to their best offensive start in program history, scoring a combined 128 points through their first 2 games. 

It was not a surprise to see the Ducks thrash the Cowboys after Gundy willingly gave them fuel for the fire during the week leading up to the game. Coach Dan Lanning has proven adept at taking every little scrap of perceived disrespect and turning it into a full-blown war for his team. Gundy didn’t necessarily say anything problematic about Lanning’s program, but he had his players feeling like they were disrespected and they went out looking to prove a point. It continued a trend for Oregon under Lanning: They are nearly automatic as big favorites at home. 

That has also been true when they’ve ventured away from Autzen Stadium.

Since the start of the 2022 season (Lanning’s first year), Oregon is 8-2 against the spread on the road as a double-digit favorite. Oregon has averaged 39.1 points per game in 15 true road games over the last 3 seasons, only once failing to break 30 points. That game — at Wisconsin on Nov. 16, 2024 — was Oregon’s eighth consecutive week with a game. The Ducks won 16-13, had a bye afterward, and then came out on the other side to put 49 points on Washington at home. 

In Week 3, the Ducks head to Evanston to face a Northwestern team that got drilled in its opener against Tulane and then faced an FCS opponent in Week 2. In a 23-3 loss to Tulane in Week 1, Northwestern quarterback Preston Stone threw 4 interceptions and the offense averaged 3.8 yards per play. Tulane ran all over the Wildcats — to the tune of 6.9 sack-adjusted yards per carry.

Jump on the Oregon line before it climbs over 30 points. Northwestern is not good. Northwestern doesn’t have anywhere close to the athleticism that Oregon does. The Ducks are deeper, more talented, and they have been just fine going on the road under Lanning. Plus, with the line where it is, Oregon can have a sub-standard day on the offensive side of the football and still cover. A 35-0 result, like last year’s trip to Purdue, is perfectly realistic. 

This Northwestern program is not buttoned up like the Pat Fitzgerald teams of old. They’re 129th in the country in team tackling grade, according to PFF. They were flagged for 6 penalties last week against an FCS opponent at home. They have 6 giveaways and only 1 takeaway in 2 games thus far. 

Bet Oregon -27.5 (-110 via Caesars)

No. 12 Clemson at Georgia Tech

Clemson responded to its season-opening disappointment with a lethargic, sloppy first half against Troy. The Tigers were punished for their mistakes and went into the halftime break trailing a Sun Belt team at home by 13 points. 

The Tigers eventually pulled out the result, outscoring Troy 24-0 in the second half to win 27-16, but no one feels good about the preseason ACC favorites after 2 weeks. The offense is a mess right now, ranking 126th nationally in EPA per play. 

Clemson ran out the clock on its final drive against Troy. It had a 1-play, kneel-down to end the first half against LSU. Remove those 2 possessions and the Tigers have had 20 offensive possessions to begin the season. They have 3 turnovers, 2 turnovers on downs, 4 3-and-outs, and a missed field goal. They have strung together a productive drive that ended in the end zone 3 times in 2 games. 

Now, that unit goes on the road for the first time to face a Yellow Jackets team that has given up 32 combined points through its first 2 games. Colorado had 305 yards of offense at 5.1 per play in Week 1. Gardner-Webb gained 326 yards in Week 2, but at just 4.2 per play. The Buffs couldn’t throw on the Yellow Jackets. The Runnin’ Bulldogs couldn’t run. 

So, why is Clemson favored? The status of quarterback Haynes King is up in the air heading into the game. Georgia Tech coach Brent Key said in an interview on Monday that King is “doing well” and is expected to practice this week after missing the Gardner-Webb game, but Key will ultimately listen to the team’s medical staff. 

King — who is said to be dealing with “a nagging lower body injury” — went through pregame warmups last Saturday before ultimately being ruled out. Key categorized the issue as “something that could be completely healed in a matter of a short time” or become a “4-to-6 weeks” issue if King is rushed back too quickly. Redshirt freshman Aaron Philo made his first career start and completed 21 of his 28 passes for 373 yards with 1 touchdown and an interception. Philo has looked serviceable as a passer when called upon, but King’s toughness, experience, and dual-threat ability make the Ramblin’ Wreck much more dangerous. 

If King is available, this game will be close. Bill Connelly’s SP+ — which is not built to factor in uncertain injury statuses — puts the margin at just 0.6 points. 

Further, Brent Key is 3-0 against the spread as a home dog since the start of the 2023 season. And Clemson is 4-5 ATS with 3 outright defeats over that same time period. 

This number opened at 7.5 in favor of Clemson. It pushed to nearly 10 points Monday morning on ESPN Bet and then plummeted down to 3.5. I’m leaning Georgia Tech in this spot, but all the movement — which seems tied to King’s status — has me hesitant to really get involved.

Lean Georgia Tech +3.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Wisconsin at No. 19 Alabama

Throw out the opening result when Alabama looked like a collection of loafers. Throw out the Week 2 result when Alabama thoroughly dismantled a bad UL Monroe team. We have 2 data points for this Crimson Tide team so far that represent the poles. The real Alabama team is somewhere in the middle of what we’ve seen.

As such, I am in no way interested in laying nearly 3 touchdowns with a virtual unknown against another power conference opponent. Just in terms of raw data, Wisconsin has had one of the best offensive starts of any team that has played multiple FBS opponents so far. 

The Badgers pulled the plug on the Air Raid experiment after last season and brought in Jeff Grimes from Baylor to get the offense back to its roots. The Badgers blanked Miami (OH) in a Week 1 game that saw starting quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. leave with an injury. They rolled Middle Tennessee last week with their backup while getting the ground game up and running. 

Wisconsin outscored MTSU 28-0 in the second half. It ran for 136 yards at 9.1 per carry while holding the Blue Raiders to 13 second-half rushing yards on 17 attempts. Four sacks contributed to that number. Wisconsin mauled MTSU on both sides of the line of scrimmage and should be taking a bit of confidence on the road. 

Wisconsin has held consecutive FBS opponents under 3.5 yards per carry (adjusted for sacks), registered 8 sacks, and picked off 3 passes through its first 2 games. 

While the level of competition has to be factored into the calculus there, I think this becomes a big mindset game. No one fears Alabama right now. And no one should. The Crimson Tide were pushed around at the line of scrimmage in Week 1 by Florida State. Wisconsin can go into Tuscaloosa without fear because this isn’t the same Alabama team. Coach Luke Fickell will no doubt be showing plays from the FSU game of Alabama defenders jogging, and he’ll tell his team that if they can punch first, they might be able to knock Alabama off-kilter. 

The Crimson Tide’s run game has been a mess through the first 2 weeks — nonexistent in Week 1 and then reliant on depth pieces in Week 2. If Wisconsin can hold up on the line, it has a shot at keeping this close.

Bet Wisconsin +20.5 (-105 via BetMGM)

No. 6 Georgia at No. 15 Tennessee

In this SEC opener for both sides, we have quarterbacks getting their first taste of conference play against tenacious defense. How does Gunner Stockton look against one of the SEC’s best defenses? And how does Joey Aguilar fare against a secondary with a pulse? 

Georgia hasn’t exactly been tested, facing Marshall and Austin Peay through its first 2 games. Still, the Bulldogs have given up 123 total rushing yards at 2.1 per carry. They only have 2 sacks through 2 games, but they’ve been unyielding on the ground. Per PFF, they have the sixth-best run defense grade in the country and the ninth-best tackle grade. They only have 8 missed tackles in 2 games, and no one has been tagged for multiple whiffs yet.

I’m very curious to see how Aguilar looks. 

The Appalachian State transfer threw for 247 yards and 3 scores in his debut against Syracuse. He threw for 288 and 2 scores against ETSU last week. Coach Josh Heupel has to be pleased with the ball security. But the completion rate was under 60% in Week 1 and his Total QBR stands at 68.7 through the first 2 weeks. Against 2 bad secondaries, Aguilar has been good. Tennessee fans who are fawning over the start while lobbing insults at the Iamaleava family should probably just wait until we see how this Georgia game goes. 

Aguilar doesn’t have a turnover-worthy play yet this year. He had 51 total in the 2 previous seasons. His average depth of target is under 10 yards for the first time in his career. His completion percentage is over 65% for the first time in his career. What’s real? 

Tennessee receivers have dropped 6 passes in 2 games. Those receivers will need to make plays against Georgia. The Bulldogs will likely play Tennessee the same way everyone else has lately — forcing the underneath stuff. If Aguilar tries to press the action and hunt big plays, do the Bulldogs make him pay for it? Can the Bulldogs stuff the run with the same success they had through the first 2 weeks? 

Tennessee’s 31-point first half against Syracuse was driven not by Aguilar’s arm, but by 7.9 yards per rushing attempt on 20 carries. The Vols hit 4 explosive runs in the first half — including a 25-yarder from Aguilar and a 47-yarder from DeSean Bishop. 

Georgia has only given up 3 rushing plays of at least 10 yards this season. It has yet to surrender a 20-plus-yard gain on the ground. 

On the other side, Stockton will be making his first career start in a true road game. While Tennessee has been a little friendlier than Heupel would like to see against the pass, Stockton hasn’t yet tested a defense down the field. The Bulldogs’ starting quarterback has an average depth of target of just 5.1 yards so far this season. He has only connected on 1 pass that traveled at least 20 yards. 

When these 2 teams met last season, they combined for just 48 points. With the total hovering around 50 right now, I like the under again in a matchup with more quarterback questions. Iamaleava was conservative and Beck was turnover-prone, but at least we knew what those guys were. I’m not sure we know who Stockton is yet, and Aguilar hasn’t faced a defense that will provide answers to the questions we have about him. 

It would not surprise me to see a gameplan from Georgia that tries to protect Stockton on the road. It would not surprise me to see Tennessee either A) struggle to run the football or B) turn it over a few times. 

Bet under 50.5 total points (-110 via ESPN Bet)

Ohio at No. 1 Ohio State

The Bobcats have been feisty through their first 2 games. They erased a 31-17 halftime deficit and went into the fourth quarter tied with Rutgers on the road to open the season as quarterback Parker Navarro threw for 3 scores and ran for a fourth. Then they beat Rich Rodriguez’s West Virginia squad in Week 2, 17-10, despite Navarro throwing 3 interceptions. 

Navarro hurts defenses with his legs and his arm. He had 1,046 rushing yards and 18 scores last season. He also had 11 picks a year ago. 

Despite the in-state nature of the matchup, these 2 teams have only played each other 6 times. They have only played 3 times in the last 100 years. Ohio might have a point to prove. 

I just don’t think they’re going to be able to score on this defense. 

Ohio State completely stifled the Texas pass game, with defensive coordinator Matt Patricia putting the inexperienced Arch Manning in a blender. Against a completely overmatched Grambling State team last weekend, Ohio State gave up just 166 yards while forcing 3 turnovers. 

While Navarro has experience to call on, decision-making has regularly been a question mark. This is not a forgiving defense to face in that regard. Ohio State can disguise and confuse. 

On the other side, Ohio doesn’t have the tools to defend the Buckeyes’ top pass-catchers. The Bobcats’ top corner has been tagged 9 times this season, has given up 8 receptions, and has allowed 20.8 yards per catch. Their No. 2 corner has given up 5 catches on 6 targets at 19.8 yards a pop. Both Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate got going in Week 2 — 10 combined catches, 188 combined yards, 3 touchdowns — and both of them should continue to eat. 

Since the start of the 2021 season, the Buckeyes are 9-6-1 ATS when favored by at least 30 points. They haven’t exactly been automatic. But they’ve also had some truly massive numbers. During that same span, the Buckeyes are just 3-4 when favored by at least 40. They’re 6-2-1 when the spread closes in the 30s.

I don’t envision this as a game where the Buckeyes struggle to create early distance. It’s a home game and they escape the dreaded Big Noon time slot. The energy inside Ohio Stadium should be high. 

Bet Ohio State -31.5 (-115 via ESPN Bet)

Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern

Georgia Southern is the favorite. Jax State is the projected outright winner, according to Bill Connelly’s SP+. 

Clay Helton’s Eagles got smashed in Week 1 by Fresno State, 42-14. They were a 1-point dog. They went to USC for Helton’s homecoming last weekend and lost by 39 points. In 2 games, the Eagles have given up 1,282 yards of offense at 9.5 yards per play. Fresno State ran for 351 yards at 7.8 a carry. USC ran for 309 at 9.4. 

This is looking like one of the worst defenses in the country. Of the 57 FBS teams that have played multiple FBS opponents so far, no defense has a worse opponent-adjusted EPA per play average than Georgia Southern, per Game on Paper. 

Jacksonville State got away from what worked a year ago in its opener, throwing 30 times in a 17-10 loss to UCF. The Gamecocks course-corrected last week against Liberty at home, throwing just 12 passes and running 50 times. Jax State had 338 rushing yards (6.8 per carry) and 4 scores. Quarterback Gavin Wimsatt went for 78 yards and a score on 10 carries. Tailback Cam Cook ran for 195 yards and 2 scores. The No. 2 back had 67 yards and a score on 8 carries. 

The Gamecocks might be able to get away with another run-heavy approach. Georgia Southern hasn’t shown an ounce of ability to stop the run. 

Bet Jacksonville State +3.5 (-110 via bet365)

No. 16 Texas A&M at No. 8 Notre Dame

In last season’s 23-13 win over the Aggies in College Station, Notre Dame played fearless defense against Texas A&M. The Irish believed the Aggies didn’t have dudes on the outside who could beat them 1-on-1 and they were largely correct. Conner Weigman completed just 12 of his 30 passes for 100 yards with no touchdowns and 2 picks. 

The game was close because Texas A&M’s defense rose up and kept the Irish out of the end zone for the first 38 minutes of the game. The Irish didn’t score their first touchdown until Jadarian Price popped a 47-yard touchdown run with 6:50 to play in the third. 

Two key things have changed. 

First: Texas A&M has dudes at receiver now. Through their first 2 games, Mario Craver and KC Concepcion have combined for 22 catches, 381 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Ashton Bethel-Roman has also been a big-play weapon beyond the big 2. Those guys haven’t seen man coverage with any frequency yet, but they were brought to A&M to be productive players in this exact spot. 

Second: Texas A&M doesn’t appear to be as good defensively. In fact, it doesn’t seem to be close. UTSA ran for 203 yards and scored 24 points on the Aggies in Week 1. The Roadrunners averaged 6.6 sack-adjusted yards per carry. Remove the 6 sacks the Aggies created in Week 2 against Utah State — 3 of them happened on 3 straight plays — and Utah State averaged 4.3 yards per carry. A&M also has only 1 takeaway so far. 

Maybe the receivers are legit. Maybe they’ll struggle against Notre Dame’s man-heavy system. (Concepcion wasn’t great against man last season.) Maybe the defensive dip is real. Maybe the Aggies are fine and Cashius Howell will continue to be a nightmare. 

Point being: I have questions about the Aggies. And that’s not even considering the fact we watched their top quarterback exit the win over Utah State with an injury and not return. Until we see Marcel Reed take the field, it’s worth keeping that in mind, regardless of what the coaching staff says leading up to the game. 

Notre Dame got an early bye week after losing to Miami in Week 1. Despite it being his first career start, CJ Carr showed some encouraging signs in the loss. He had a handful of “dude, what are you doing?” plays, but you expect those from young quarterbacks and it seems like Notre Dame is content to live with them. With an extra week to prepare, I’m looking for a better plan of attack from Notre Dame — one that doesn’t forget about Jeremiyah Love for long stretches at a time. 

In the 27-24 loss to Miami, Notre Dame just didn’t do enough to get its top playmaker the football. Or, any of its playmakers, for that matter. Jaden Greathouse saw 2 targets and didn’t have a catch. Jordan Faison averaged 1 yard per route run and had a negative average depth of target. Love had 4 rushing attempts in the first half.

I expected Notre Dame to score. Prior to the Miami game, Notre Dame had scored at least 27 points in 28 of its previous 36 games. The Irish produced just 24 against the Hurricanes. Off a bye week, and at home, I think they can have a better offensive showing against this Aggie defense. 

The Irish are 6-1 ATS with a rest advantage under coach Marcus Freeman. But they’re also just 9-7-1 ATS as a favorite at home. I got the sense folks were selling their Notre Dame stock after the Week 1 defeat, and I’m curious if that continues this week. As a 7-point dog at most shops, A&M will probably get majority of the money. As of Monday night, 60% of the spread bets at BetMGM were on the Aggies. I think this line will fall throughout the week. 

I think Notre Dame can win the football game, but I’m holding out for something closer to 4 or 5 points. 

Hold for Notre Dame -4 or better

Upset Spot of the Week: Vanderbilt at No. 11 South Carolina

Last week, I called for UNLV on the money line and the Rebels mostly dominated the UCLA Bruins. Though the Bruins eventually fought back and finished only 7 points down on the scoreboard, UNLV had a 90.7% postgame win expectancy that told the story of the game. The Rebels should have been the favorite. 

In the spirit of that, I’m going to hold this space every week going forward for a money line upset. This week, we’re targeting another “should be favored” team. 

South Carolina opening as an 8.5-point favorite over Vanderbilt (it has since been bet down to 5.5) is a head-scratcher. South Carolina being ranked 11th in the AP Top 25 while Vanderbilt has 1 (one!) singular poll vote is a perfect example of preseason biases overruling on-field results. 

The Gamecocks and Commodores have a common opponent in Virginia Tech. South Carolina beat Tech 24-11 at a neutral site. Vandy beat Tech 44-20 in Blacksburg. South Carolina struggled with its FCS buy game. Vandy slaughtered the FCS opponent it faced in Week 1. 

According to Game on Paper, Vandy has the third-best offensive EPA per play mark of any FBS team through the first 2 weeks of the season. South Carolina ranks 100th. 

The ‘Dores averaged 8.2 yards per play against Charleston Southern and then 8.6 against Virginia Tech. They outscored the Hokies 34-0 in the second half while outgaining them 321 to 21. Not a typo; Virginia Tech had 21 second-half yards at home. Vandy ran 38 plays to Tech’s 17 as it just sat on the ball. 

All of Vandy’s scores have come from its offense. South Carolina has needed 3 punt return touchdowns to open the season 2-0. The offense has been — and I say this respectfully — garbage. 

The Gamecocks had 10 first-half points against Virginia Tech and the offense scored 3 first-half points against South Carolina State. Vicari Swain returned 2 punts for touchdowns in the final 5 minutes of the second quarter. South Carolina also scored on a 46-yard scoop-and-score in the third quarter.

Through 2 games: 

• South Carolina offense: 34 points
• South Carolina defense/special teams: 28 points

The Gamecocks averaged 4.5 yards per play against an FCS team in Week 2. Remove the 64-yard reception by Nyck Harbor and they averaged 4.8 yards per play against Virginia Tech in the opener. 

There’s no reason to trust the South Carolina offense. And the Vandy offense has been on absolute fire. This is a dangerous matchup for the Gamecocks because of that fact. If quarterback LaNorris Sellers is still off and the offense is inefficient with its early possessions, Vanderbilt’s ability to shorten the game and play keep-away becomes a significant problem. 

Bet Vanderbilt money line (+175 via bet365)