Week 5 lived up to every expectation. Every single game we thought could be excellent was. The Friday night slate provided drama. The top-ranked teams had to earn it on Saturday. In total, we saw 4 games involving top-20 teams go to overtime.
This season has been wildly entertaining, and we’re sitting .500 after 5 weeks. Onward and upward.
Here’s how to bet the early market.
Last week: 3-4
2025 season: 21-21
2024 season: 84-69-1
Week 6 schedule, odds
At SDS, we’ve got you covered all season with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every Week 6 game below.
Week 6 picks
You can find my early bets for the week below. After that, I’ll break down each game on the card.
Kentucky at No. 12 Georgia
From 2017-22, when Kirby Smart officially established the Georgia Bulldogs as one of the premier programs in college football, the Bulldogs went 49-34 (59.0%) against the spread. Really good. That included a 17-14 record ATS in conference games where Georgia was favored by at least 2 touchdowns.
Since the start of the 2023 season, Georgia is 9-22-1 ATS. That’s the worst record of any SEC team over that span. And the Bulldogs are 2-8 ATS against conference opponents when favored by at least 14 points.
Saturday’s 3-point loss to Alabama at home prompted some questions. Taken in conjunction with Oregon’s thrilling win at Penn State, I asked myself if Dan Lanning was the best coach in the country. Are we wrong about Smart? Did he just strike gold with a record-setting draft class that came through Athens? Oregon, by the way, is 21-11-1 ATS since 2023.
I also wondered if losing Lanning was the catalyst for this current reality in which we find the Bulldogs. In 2021, Lanning’s last season with the Dawgs, the Georgia defense led the country in schedule-adjusted EPA per play faced, according to Game on Paper.
In 2022, the Dawgs dipped to eighth. In 2023, Georgia fell further, down to 30th. In 2024, Georgia ranked 55th.
This season, Georgia ranks 77th in schedule-adjusted EPA per play. Arkansas, whose defense has been bemoaned through the first 5 games of the season, sits just 6 spots behind the Dawgs.
The trend is similar if we look at defensive success rate:
- 2021: 1st
- 2022: 8th
- 2023: 22nd
- 2024: 32nd
- 2025: 74th
Slippage each and every season. Throw in an offense that has grown a little less stable and a little more prone to giving the ball away and you set the stage for what we’ve seen over the last 24 months. Georgia can rise to the occasion and meet the moment — emphasis on “can” — because it has more talent than most of its peers. But Georgia is no longer a machine that steamrolls over its opponents.
I don’t trust the Georgia defense. And while Kentucky might not seem like the kind of team that can press the issues that have plagued the Dawgs — 97th in EPA per dropback, 101st in passing success rate — you’d be surprised at what an offense can do when it isn’t pressured. Georgia has 5 sacks in 4 games. It is one of the poorest pass-rushing units in college football. Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson was pressured on 5 of his 40 dropbacks.
Kentucky’s team pass-blocking grade is 26th nationally. And the Wildcats had a lead on South Carolina going into the second quarter before turning the football over on 5 straight possessions. The Gamecocks’ defense returned 2 of those turnovers for defensive scores. That was a pretty flukey performance, all things considered.
Prior to last week, Kentucky had 2 giveaways and 4 takeaways in its first 3 games. Maybe the turnover bug bites again. Maybe the noise swirling around Mark Stoops starts to bleed into the team. Or, maybe Kentucky gives the Dawgs a game again. Georgia has dominated the all-time series against Kentucky but is 1-5 ATS against the Wildcats over its last 6 games. What I do know is I don’t trust Georgia’s defense at all right now.
Bet Kentucky +20.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
No. 9 Texas at Florida
The wheels came off a while ago for Florida. They aren’t even visible on the road any longer. The buggy has just been grinding down the road, shooting sparks in every which direction. I think this is the moment when the car catches fire.
In terms of schedule-adjusted EPA per play, Texas has the No. 2 defense in the country. The Longhorns win the field position battle, dominate early downs, swallow up runs, and suffocate the big plays. This probably doesn’t look like the 5-interception horror show that quarterback DJ Lagway endured in the loss to LSU, but Florida’s quarterback will be in terrible positions all day.
Head coach Billy Napier promised offensive changes during the team’s bye week, but those changes did not include handing off play-calling responsibilities. Florida doesn’t win on early downs and Lagway looks uninterested in looking downfield when the Gators drop back to throw.
I just struggle to see a scenario in which Florida avoids a bunch of third-and-longs. And Florida gets its hands on fewer passes than Texas does, so generating some takeaways to give the offense shorter fields to work with feels unlikely as well.
It’s going to be a tough day for Florida when the Gators have the football. A very tough day.
Bet Florida team total under 17.5 points (-115 via DraftKings)
No. 16 Vanderbilt at No. 10 Alabama
We’re doing this again with Vanderbilt as a double-digit underdog? Really?
The Commodores are a threat to win this game outright, but let’s just recount the recent history for the upteenth time. Vandy is 10-2 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2024 season. In those 12 games, Vandy has 7 outright victories. Last year, Vandy won 4 times as an underdog of at least 7 points.
Even factoring in the revenge element for Alabama, back the ‘Dores. They are better this season than they were last season.
Vandy is 10th nationally in schedule-adjusted net EPA per play, according to Game on Paper. The offense ranks fourth nationally in yards per play (7.9). The defense ranks 28th (4.7). Quarterback Diego Pavia is third nationally in both Total QBR and total EPA. Vandy is converting 60.1% of its third downs (fourth nationally) and scoring touchdowns on 86.2% of its red zone trips (third nationally).
“That’s unsustainable.” That’s a fair critique. It probably is. At least to a certain degree, given the league Vandy plays in. But Vandy has been so magnificent on offense because Pavia is that good a player. And this Alabama defense is not the one to start yucking Vandy’s yum.
He’s a veteran quarterback who isn’t goaded into mistakes, who can produce in the face of pressure, and who can hurt defenses with his legs.
When blitzed this season, Pavia has a 72.1% completion rate, an average of 9.8 yards per pass attempt, and 9 touchdowns against 2 turnover-worthy plays. (Alabama blitzed Tommy Castellanos on half his dropbacks. It blitzed Gunner Stockton on a third of his dropbacks.)
Castellanos ran for 78 yards against the Tide. Stockton had 22 yards, though his tendency to scramble himself into trouble was evident. Alabama hasn’t shown an ability under Kalen DeBoer to contain mobile quarterbacks. Against Georgia, it simply couldn’t stop the run. FSU ran for 5 yards per carry, adjusted for sacks. Georgia was at 7.2 yards per carry.
Pavia won’t make the first-time starter mistakes Stockton makes. And he’s a better passer than Castellanos. This Alabama defense is going to have a difficult time containing Pavia. And that means the Vandy offense will be on the field a ton.
I suspect this line will fall throughout the week. It opened at 13.5 and had already dropped 3 points by Monday afternoon. Getting in early is always the preferred move but I’m playing the ‘Dores in this matchup all the way to 3.5.
Bet Vandy +10.5 (-110 via bet365)
No. 24 Virginia at Louisville
Virginia is eighth nationally in scoring, averaging 45.6 points per game. Louisville is averaging 38.3 points per game to rank 24th. Virginia has been automatic when it crosses the 40, averaging nearly 5 points per scoring opportunity this season to rank near Florida State and Miami atop the ACC. But the defense gives up a ton of explosives. Louisville, which fell into a 17-0 hole after 15 minutes against Pitt last Saturday, is probably going to have to play catch-up yet again.
There should be a ton of points here. The Jeff Brohm-led offense is doing what Jeff Brohm offenses always do — air it out. Louisville is 114th in rushing attempts per game. The burden is squarely on quarterback Miller Moss, who has 655 passing yards in his last 2 games.
The Louisville defense does well against the pass, but struggles to stop the run. Virginia uses the run game to open up opportunities for quarterback Chandler Morris. UVa averages more than 43 rushing attempts a game. Its sixth-year senior quarterback has been good to start the season, but he gets away with quite a bit. After 23 turnover-worthy throws last year with North Texas, Morris has 7 in his first 5 games this year. He threw 3 picks in the win over Florida State, and he had another in the 4-point loss to NC State.
Virginia has put points on every team it has faced thus far. It has scored at least 46 in 4 of its 5 games. And the offense, despite its tendency to run, is maximizing its opportunities each time out. The Cavs average 80 plays a game.
Bet over 62.5 total points (-110 via BetMGM)
Minnesota at No. 1 Ohio State
Overtime saved the primetime NBC crowd from a defensive slugfest in Week 5. The top-6 battle between Oregon and Penn State produced only 34 combined points in regulation. The network is going to be begging for a couple of barn-burners after Week 6.
Minnesota and Ohio State have 2 of the best defenses in college football. The Buckeyes haven’t given up more than 9 points in a game yet. Minnesota ranks sixth nationally in defensive success rate, though the Gophers have been burned a bit more often in recent weeks.
The most pressing concern for the Golden Gophers is the disappearance of their run game. Minnesota averaged 2.6 sack-adjusted yards per carry against Rutgers. It was stunning to see a PJ Fleck-coached team throw the football on 69% of its snaps last week. Despite being in a 1-possession game for the entire second half, Minnesota only ran the ball 9 times over the final 30 minutes against Rutgers. And the Scarlet Knights have struggled all year to stop the run.
Drake Lindsey, the Gophers’ redshirt freshman quarterback, has been excellent to start the season. But I can’t imagine Minnesota wants him to throw the ball 41 times in Columbus on Saturday night.
Given Minnesota’s sturdiness against the run so far, the Gophers have to be feeling confident they can hang with the Ohio State offense. Ohio State also hasn’t really exploded against FBS teams so far. The Buckeyes scored just 14 against Texas, 37 against Ohio, and 24 against Washington.
The spread being what it is with a total this low shows little faith in the Minnesota offense, and that’s probably fair. But SP+ projects 33 points for the Buckeyes in this matchup, and I don’t know if that’s nearly as fair given Minnesota’s defensive metrics. Plus, 18 of Ohio State’s last 26 regular-season games against FBS opponents have gone under the projected point total — including all 3 this season.
Bet under 44.5 total points (-105 via FanDuel)
No. 3 Miami at No. 18 Florida State
With wins over Notre Dame, South Florida, and Florida, Miami surged toward the top of the AP Poll. Oregon’s win in Happy Valley bumped the Hurricanes from No. 2 to No. 3 during their bye week, but the point remains — Miami is viewed as one of the best teams in the country right now.
Coming off its first loss of the season, Florida State is a home underdog. SP+ projects only a 2-point margin between these 2 teams in Tallahassee. And, according to Game on Paper, Florida State ranks third nationally in schedule-adjusted net EPA per play.
(If we don’t adjust for the quality of teams played, FSU leads the nation in net EPA per play. Miami ranks 18th and 14th, respectively, for what it’s worth.)
The Seminoles built their early-season success at the line of scrimmage. They’re in the 98th percentile for rushing EPA per play and in the 90th percentile for defensive stuff rate. FSU hits explosives on the ground on offense and takes them away altogether on the other side.
This game will be won at the line of scrimmage. That’s usually true for every game that gets played, but it’s especially true between these 2 teams. Miami’s defensive front might be the best in football. FSU handled its first 3 opponents because it dominated on the line. Who do you trust more? On paper, FSU has been the better team — more complete on offense, fewer busts on defense.
So, what the heck happened in Charlottesville last Friday? FSU outgained UVa 6.3 yards per play to 5.2 but turned the ball over 3 times — once in the red zone and once in the second overtime period. FSU thought Duce Robinson caught a game-tying touchdown. A review overturned the call on the field. FSU then false-started to turn a fourth-and-7 into a fourth-and-12 and Castellanos was picked off to end the game.
According to SP+, FSU had a postgame win expectancy of 64.9% in a game it lost 46-38.
“I think guys were riding high, kind of feeling ourselves a little bit,” Castellanos said after the game.
Inside Doak Campbell Stadium, I lean toward the ‘Noles but I don’t really want to get involved with the line already dropping.
Lean Florida State +4.5
Mississippi State at No. 6 Texas A&M
We have seen 12 games between SEC teams through the first 5 weeks of the season. The average margin in those 12 games is 9.1 points. Only 2 games have been decided by more than 10 points, and both of those games involved South Carolina, a team whose defense and special teams have contributed 6 of its 16 total touchdowns on the season. The gap between everyone in the SEC is shrinking. The elite, untouchable teams don’t really exist anymore, and the terrible teams are kind of good.
Case in point: Mississippi State. This team is simply good.
The Bulldogs opened 4-0 and then took Tennessee to overtime. The Bulldogs are 17th in schedule-adjusted net EPA per play. The Achilles heel last season — the pass defense — has made major strides year over year. Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar was picked off twice and held under his season averages for per-pass yardage and completion rate.
Stopping the run is still a question mark. Arizona State ran for 251 against MSU. And Tennessee tailback DeSean Bishop ended the game by breaking a 25-yard touchdown run off the edge on the first play of overtime. But MSU has been making up for that deficit by taking the football away with great success.
The Bulldogs have 10 takeaways in 5 games. Their plus-6 margin in the turnover department is the sixth-best in the country through 5 weeks.
Texas A&M had defensive concerns before facing Auburn. I’m not sure anything can be taken from that defensive performance for the Aggies; the Auburn offense is a mess. But the Aggies also sputtered on offense all their own to open up a new concern. Between the second and third quarters, the Aggies crossed the Auburn 40-yard line 5 times in 6 drives and gained a total of 6 points. They settled for a pair of field goals, missed 2 more field goals, and threw a pick on the edge of the red zone that set up Auburn’s only touchdown.
The Auburn defense was the first competent unit A&M has faced this season. Mississippi State will be the second.
Bet Mississippi State +14.5 (-115 via Fanatics)
Upset Spot of the Week: Washington at Maryland
I loved Maryland against Wisconsin on the road in Week 4 and the Terps came through, beating the Badgers 27-10 in a game that wasn’t ever all that close. The Terps were a 10.5-point dog in that game, and now they’re a home dog coming off a bye week.
Washington’s defense is licking some wounds after getting bullied by Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin. The first-year starter for Ohio State completed 22 of his 28 passes for 208 yards and 2 scores in what was his first-ever road start.
Now, the Huskies are heading to the opposite coast to face a team with a rest advantage and a capable passing attack. Maryland quarterback Malik Washington threw for 265 and 2 scores while adding a third touchdown on the ground in the win over Wisconsin 2 weeks ago. Washington’s efficiency leaves something to be desired, but there’s no denying the talent. He has at least 250 passing yards in each of his first 4 games and he only has 2 turnover-worthy plays so far.
The Huskies ranked seventh nationally last season in EPA per dropback faced. They are 70th this season.
Through the first 5 games, Maryland has been dominant defensively and scattershot on offense. I think the true freshman passer for the Terps has his best performance of the year here.
Bet Maryland money line (+198 via FanDuel)
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
