They say you win some and you lose some. Hopefully, the wins are around the corner because all that awaited in Week 6 was a steady stream of Ls.
In this column, I had Kentucky +20.5 and Kentucky lost by 21. I had Vandy +10.5 and that was going to cash before the defense let Jam Miller score with 17 seconds left. I had the under in Ohio State-Minnesota and it missed by half a point. And I had Maryland in the Upset Spot of the Week. I watched as Maryland built a 20-0 third-quarter lead at home and then blew it to lose 24-20.
In the end, I had the worst week I’ve ever had in this column.
So…
Onward and upward, I guess?
Here’s how to bet the early market.
Last week: 0-7
2025 season: 21-28
2024 season: 84-69-1
Week 7 schedule, odds
At SDS, we’ve got you covered all season with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every Week 7 game below.
Week 7 picks
You can find my early bets for the week below. After that, I’ll break down each game on the card.
Jacksonville State at Sam Houston
The Gamecocks have been remarkably confusing this season, but Sam Houston is one of a few “get right” teams in the FBS this season. And this is a “target the terrible team” spot on my card after an atrocious week. If the broken Texas offense can score 55 points on the 0-5 Bearkats, anything is possible! Plus, SHSU isn’t just 0-5 on the scoreboard, it is also 0-5 against the spread this season. Sam Houston, a 2-point favorite, lost by 27 points to New Mexico State last Thursday. That was the worst ATS performance in a season full of them; SHSU is underperforming by 2 touchdowns per game (13.9 points).
The Bearkats’ defense is among the worst units in the country when it comes to allowed success rate. They rank 126th out of 136 FBS teams. The only thing the defense does with any degree of adequacy is limit explosive runs. That also happens to be Jacksonville State’s best offensive quality. The Gamecocks rank in the 98th percentile for EPA per run because they rank in the 99th percentile for explosive run rate. One in every 5 runs goes for at least 10 yards.
Jax State has committed to a ground-and-pound style this season, and it has some quarterback uncertainty going into Week 7. Gavin Wimsatt was replaced by Caden Creel in the second quarter of the Gamecocks’ loss to Southern Miss on Sept. 27. Wimsatt threw for just 19 yards on 8 attempts and lost a fumble. Creel ran for 161 and threw for 109, but he turned it over 3 times. They’ve been said to be competing with each other since. If Creel can get the throw game working with more efficiency, Jax State should roll.
Bet Jax State -8.5 (-108 via DraftKings)
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 17 Illinois
Illinois has been the second-best team in the Big Ten against the spread since Bret Bielema took over the program. The Illini are 32-22-2 ATS under Bielema. Only Michigan, which was cheating, has a better win rate against the number during that span. And the Illini have been money as an underdog, covering 63.3% of the time.
They’ve already won a home game outright this season as a 6.5-point dog, beating USC by 2 on Sept. 27. That marked the sixth time since the start of the 2024 season that Illinois has won a game outright as a betting underdog.
Bielema is also 7-4 ATS with Illinois in games where his team is at least a 10-point dog.
But Ohio State is also 20-10-1 ATS as a favorite of at least 10 points in Big Ten play since the start of the 2021 season. No one has scored more than 9 points on this Ohio State defense all year and the Illini have some concerning signs from their first 5 games that could become major pressure points against these Buckeyes.
While Ohio State has only seen 1 top-60 offense all season, the offense it did see (Washington) ranks 10th nationally in adjusted EPA per play, according to Game on Paper, and the Buckeyes completely shut the outfit down. UW scored 6 points and gained just 4.4 yards per play. UW quarterback Demond Williams Jr. was sacked 6 times.
Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer was sacked 7 times against Indiana and 4 times against Duke. The Illini got hammered in the former and won by 26 in the latter because the defense produced 5 takeaways. Illinois has to hold up against the Ohio State pass rush. Altmyer has been bad when pressured this season.
The Illinois defense has also given up 122 points over its first 3 conference games. The Illini have outscored teams or been bludgeoned by them. USC quarterback Jayden Maiava threw for 364 yards. Purdue’s Ryan Brown threw for 302. Per Game on Paper, the defense ranks 108th in adjusted EPA per play faced. Illinois has given up at least 6 yards per play in each of its last 3 games. It got 2 takeaways apiece against USC and Purdue to aid in 2- and 16-point wins.
I understand the appeal with Illinois as a huge home dog, but I can’t get there myself. Not in this spot. I just don’t think I trust the defense to come up with more takeaways to bail the team out. This number opened at 13.5 and has since moved to 16.5. If it starts to come back down closer to 14, I’ll get involved.
Hold out for Ohio State -13.5
No. 8 Alabama at No. 14 Mizzou
With Mizzou having an extra week to prepare and Alabama hitting the road after a big, emotional win, I love the Tigers here.
Vanderbilt held a ton of real estate in the minds of the Crimson Tide. Given the way last season’s game went, and given all that was said leading up to this year’s meeting, Alabama invested heavily into its 30-14 win over the Commodores. The coaches needed it. The players wanted it. Now, they have to turn around and travel to a house that will be rocking off its hinges and face an offense that will stress the Tide.
The final margin in the game wasn’t indicative of how competitive it was. And it certainly masks the issues that were presented. Alabama still can’t stop the run. Sedrick Alexander popped a 65-yard touchdown to open the scoring in the game. Diego Pavia had a 36-yard scamper and finished with 58 rushing yards. Adjusted for sacks, Vandy averaged 8.1 yards per run.
Vandy also sacked Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson 4 times and picked him off once. The game might have looked completely different if Pavia hadn’t fumbled inside the 10 on Vandy’s second drive. And it certainly would have felt different at the end if he hadn’t thrown a red-zone pick early in the fourth quarter.
Because it was trailing, and because it was short on time after Alabama sat on the football, Vanderbilt threw 36 passes and ran 19 times. If Mizzou and its 14th-ranked offense can stay on script, Beau Pribula and Ahmad Hardy are going to have big days.
Alabama ranks 32nd in allowed success rate, according to Game on Paper. The Tide have not been good on late downs and they have not been able to contain explosive run plays. While teams haven’t gotten to the red zone much, the ones who have score touchdowns 2 out of every 3 trips.
Hardy is the hardest player in the country to tackle. And that’s not an opinion. That’s fact. No FBS player has more runs of 20 yards or more (8). No FBS player has forced more missed tackles than Hardy (46) this season, and the only 2 FBS players who forced more missed tackles than Hardy (93) last season both started for NFL franchises over the weekend. He leads the nation in rushing, with 730 yards in 5 games. His yardage gained after first contact (551) would be the ninth-highest rushing total in the nation.
Essentially, Ashton Jeanty is in the Mizzou backfield.
Here’s the catch: Hardy has kinda-sorta played a Jeanty schedule so far. South Carolina is the only top-60 defense Missouri has faced through its first 5 games. But Hardy ran for 138 and a score on 22 carries. And Jamal Roberts, an RB1 on a different team, ran for 76 on 13 carries.
Mizzou’s defense is the best unit Alabama has faced by a wide margin this season. Hardy is the best running back Alabama has faced by a wide margin. Pribula can damage a defense with his legs in the same way Pavia can. If he can avoid those back-breaking mistakes Pavia made, Mizzou will put points on the board against the Crimson Tide defense. It feels pertinent to point out that Alabama fans had their pitchforks out and aimed at Kane Wommack for much of Saturday’s game.
Vandy had an excellent offense. Mizzou has a complete team. And home-field. This is a letdown spot for the Crimson Tide.
Bet Mizzou +3 (-110 via BetMGM)
No. 7 Indiana at No. 3 Oregon
Under Dan Lanning, Oregon is 22-1 straight up at home. The Ducks are 15-7-1 against the spread when at home. But, assuming this number closes in the single-digits, Saturday’s game against Indiana will be just the third home game since Lanning took over the program in which the Ducks are favored, but by less than 10 points.
The previous 2 instances came during the 2022 season — Lanning’s first. Oregon was a 3.5-point favorite over BYU and blasted the Cougars, 41-20. Oregon was then just a 6-point favorite over UCLA and won 45-30.
ESPN’s College GameDay was at that UCLA game. The score was tied 10-10 with 12:38 to play in the second quarter and Oregon took a 31-13 lead into the locker room at the halftime break. The Ducks led by 22 going into the fourth. Oregon blitzed the Bruins and handed a top-10 UCLA squad its first loss of the year.
This game gives me 2022 UCLA vibes. Indiana has surged to No. 7 in the AP Poll thanks in large part to the drubbing it gave Illinois on Sept. 20. Oregon is a different animal.
While this year’s Hoosier team feels better than last year’s, there was a distinct gap between them and the elite teams in the conference. Ohio State blew the doors off the Hoosiers. Then Notre Dame handled Indiana in the postseason. Oregon is on par with those teams from a talent standpoint.
And we know Lanning will have this group ready to play. Lanning has proven time and time again that he’s adept at motivating his team in these big-game moments. I’m not going to overthink this one.
Bet Oregon -7.5 (-110 via bet365)
Arkansas at No. 12 Tennessee
I love the fact that Arkansas-Tennessee will be happening around the same time as Red River. The total in the OU-Texas game is hovering around 42 points. The total in the Arkansas-Tennessee game is right around 69. Two different sports will be on display.
Since the start of the 2023 season, only 11 FBS games have closed with a point total at or above 69 points. The under cashed in 7 of the 11 games. (Fun fact: North Texas was involved in 3 of the 4 games when the over cashed.)
This was a 19-14 game last season. And that meeting had a closing total of 57.5 points. Fast forward one year and the rematch will, if it closes at 69.5, represent the highest point total for any FBS vs. FBS game this year.
So, what gives?
Arkansas gains at least 10 yards on 29.6% of its plays. That is the second-highest rate of any team in the FBS. Tennessee is also in the top 25, gaining 10 yards or more on a quarter of its plays. A little over 11% of the Razorbacks’ plays result in at least 20 yards — the third-highest rate in the country. Tennessee is at 8.1%.
These are 2 elite offenses against 2 defenses that are struggling mightily this season. Arkansas is 120th in adjusted EPA per play faced. Tennessee ranks 96th. Mississippi State ran for 203 yards on the UT defense and Georgia threw for 304. With a week for Bobby Petrino to regroup the Razorbacks and prep for UT, I’m not expecting consecutive poor performances from Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green.
I think this could look like the Ole Miss game on Sept. 13, when the 2 sides just raced up and down the field. Tennessee operates quickly and pulls its opponents into high-possession games. And neither defense has shown an ability this season to prevent scoring chances. The UT defense has given up red zone trips on 40% of drives against P4 competition, while the Arkansas defense has allowed red zone trips on 75% of drives against P4 competition.
Bet over 69 total points (-110 via Caesars)
Purdue at Minnesota
SP+ likes Minnesota by 10 at home. I’m not quite convinced. The Minnesota defense has collapsed and now it welcomes a competent passing attack and a Purdue roster desperate for its first Big Ten win. After winning a shootout with Rutgers, 31-28, Minnesota was whipped in Columbus. The Buckeyes gained 474 yards of offense at 8.2 yards per play. The last 3 passers to face the Gopher defense have completed 68.3% of their attempts for 8.6 yards per pass. They’ve thrown 8 touchdowns against just 1 turnover.
Minnesota has dipped to 82nd in adjusted EPA per play faced, according to Game on Paper. The Gophers are 98th in allowed passing success rate. Purdue quarterback Ryan Browne has thrown for at least 300 yards in 3 of his 5 games so far. He is a threat to give the ball away (5 picks) but he’s the reason Purdue has jumped from 126th to 32nd in adjusted EPA per play in the span of a year.
After the Illinois loss, Purdue coach Barry Odom said the offense kept Purdue in the game, but the defense “didn’t do anything well enough” to win a game “against anyone.” Explosive plays have haunted the defense. Minnesota, which has averaged 17.8 points per game against FBS opponents this season, gives Purdue a chance to finally break through.
Self-inflicted errors cost the Boilermakers big against an Illinois team with more firepower. Purdue should score on Minnesota.
Bet Purdue +8.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
No. 10 Georgia at Auburn
Last year, it was Kentucky. Auburn and Georgia Tech put a scare into Georgia in 2023. Missouri was the trap the Dawgs climbed out of in 2022. Kentucky was a thorn in Georgia’s side in 2020 as well. Each year under Kirby Smart, there’s a road game that trips the Dawgs up and demands everything of them to escape with a win. I think oddsmakers are signaling that this year’s danger spot for Georgia has arrived.
If you were shocked to learn the Dawgs were only a 3.5-point favorite over an Auburn team that, over its last 2 games, has looked completely broken on offense, you were not alone. I had hoped to be able to back Auburn as a 7.5 or 8.5-point underdog. At 3.5, there’s just not really much value to be gained here.
The Tigers are excellent defensively. They give up under 5 yards per play and less than 3 yards per run. They’re top-20 in tackles for loss and allowed red zone touchdown percentage. And they’re top-15 in third-down defense.
But, there are just too many problems to fix on offense. No FBS team has given up more sacks than Auburn (21). Jackson Arnold has been sacked 14 times in his last 2 games. And Arnold still won’t throw the ball down the field. He threw 33 passes against Texas A&M and finished with 125 yards. That was only the fifth time this season a quarterback threw at least 25 passes and averaged under 4 yards per attempt in a P4 vs. P4 game, and it was the exact kind of game every Oklahoma fan warned Auburn about when Arnold transferred.
Auburn’s stubborn refusal to run the ball might also backfire here. Georgia’s defense is better against the run this season. The Tigers are either going to overcompensate, run into a wall, and stall out, or they’re going to continue doing what they’ve been doing and stall out.
Bet Georgia -3.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
Upset Spot of the Week: No. 6 Oklahoma vs. Texas
On Oct. 8, 2022, Texas embarrassed Oklahoma in a way that was completely foreign to Sooner fans. The Sooners, without their starting quarterback, managed only 195 yards of offense in a 49-0 shutout loss to the Longhorns.
The 49 points for Texas were, at that time, the most they’d scored in the history of the series. The shutout was the first for an Oklahoma team since 1998, and the 49-0 margin was the largest shutout loss in school history. Texas hadn’t won the Golden Hat in 4 years, but it snatched the hat back with prejudice that day.
Last season, Texas did something similar, blasting the Sooners 34-3 in Dallas. Texas ran over the Sooners from the second quarter on.
Those losses will be on the mind of OU coach Brent Venables and his team as they ready for a wounded Texas team in the Cotton Bowl. After a stunning loss in The Swamp, Texas has zero confidence or rhythm on offense at the moment. With 2 losses in 5 games sending the ‘Horns tumbling out of the AP Poll, there’s very little momentum in Austin at the moment.
And I think OU’s defense can do to this Texas offense what the UT defense has done to the Sooners in recent years. Through Week 6, OU ranks inside the national top 5 in scoring defense, per-play run defense, per-play pass defense, sacks, tackles for loss, third-down defense, and red zone trips allowed. Judged by Game on Paper’s adjusted EPA per play metric, OU has the best defense in the nation by a significant margin.
Through 5 games, Oklahoma has given up just 36 combined points. That is the fewest points allowed by the defense through the first 5 games of a season since 1987, and it is tied for the eighth-best defensive start to a season since the start of the Bud Wilkinson era. OU has allowed only 3 defensive touchdowns all year.
Texas, yet to beat a P4 team this season, has nearly as many drives ending with a turnover (3) as it does drives ending with a touchdown (4) against other power conference teams. All 3 of the giveaways have been interceptions from Manning, who has completed just 55.9% of his throws against P4 teams.
The Sooners will likely be without starting quarterback John Mateer for the game. The defense knows going in that it’ll have to help out the offense. Against a Texas offense that looks mentally fractured, it might not be pretty.
Bet Oklahoma money line (+120 via bet365)
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
