A couple of bad weeks in a row, a handful of dreadfully bad beats, and now I’m under for the year. Let’s just get to the picks.
Here’s how to bet the early market.
Last week: 2-4-1
2025 season: 23-32-1
2024 season: 84-69-1
Week 8 schedule, odds
At SDS, we’ve got you covered all season with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every Week 8 game below.
Week 8 picks
You can find my early bets for the week below. After that, I’ll break down each game on the card.
No. 25 Nebraska at Minnesota
On paper, this probably shouldn’t be a tight game. Nebraska and Minnesota are separated by about 13 points in Bill Connelly’s latest SP+ ratings. Nebraska is 27th nationally in net adjusted EPA per play, while Minnesota ranks down at No. 82. The Huskers have been owning the line of scrimmage, dominating field position, limiting penalties, and protecting the football. For a Gopher team that is as offensively challenged as this team is, it’s hard to find a path toward victory against this Huskers squad.
Though, maybe Penn State just provided one out of thin air.
The Nittany Lions fired coach James Franklin on Sunday, jostling the college football landscape and potentially cutting through the noise to take up some premium real estate space in the mind of Nebraska coach Matt Rhule.
Rhule played linebacker at Penn State from 1994-97. He began his coaching career as a volunteer assistant at Penn State in 1998. When he was the head coach at Temple, current Penn State AD Pat Kraft was the Owls’ AD. According to reporting from The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman, both Rhule and Kraft still have great affection for one another, Rhule has “deep ties” in Happy Valley, and it is believed to be “very doubtful” Rhule would tell his old boss at his alma mater no.
That creates quite the distraction this week as the 5-1 Huskers prepare to go on the road to face what is still a 4-2 Minnesota team.
Minnesota, by the way, has won 5 straight against Nebraska dating back to 2019. The last 4 meetings have all been decided by 7 points or less. The last meeting in Minneapolis featured a 7.5-point closing spread and only a 3-point Gopher win.
Vegas doesn’t expect a ton of points in this Friday night conference clash between 2 teams that don’t really like each other. A low-scoring game would certainly favor Minnesota. My gut tells me to back the underdog here.
Bet Minnesota +7.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
No. 10 LSU at No. 17 Vanderbilt
At this point, it’s probably time to accept the LSU offense for what it is rather than waiting for it to become what we thought it would be. The Tigers rank 99th in adjusted EPA per play, according to Game on Paper. The offensive line is a mess. The run game is M.I.A. And the production falls squarely on quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. If he’s good, LSU can win. If he struggles, LSU will struggle.
The LSU defense is good enough to keep LSU in most games, so long as Nussmeier doesn’t turn the football over. And in this week’s matchup with Vanderbilt, whoever wins when Vandy has the ball is going to win the football game.
I lean toward the Commodores at home. Vanderbilt shot itself in the foot at Alabama with red zone turnovers, and it has had 2 weeks to sit and stew over those mistakes.
This is an offense that still ranks fourth nationally in adjusted EPA per play. Vandy has allowed the fifth-fewest tackles for loss of any offense this season, a trait that has led to dominant situational proficiency so far. The Dores have been to the red zone (32) more than all but 10 FBS teams, and they have touchdowns on 81.3% of those trips, a clip that ranks sixth nationally. Vanderbilt also has the second-best conversion rate on third down, at 57.9%.
In what projects as a lower-scoring game, which side can convert a crucial third down to extend a drive late? I have more faith in Vanderbilt. Which side can create an extra possession or 2? I have more faith in Vanderbilt. Which side can play keepaway better? I have more faith in Vanderbilt.
Bet Vanderbilt -2.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
UConn at Boston College
The wrong team is favored in this game. Boston College is dog water and UConn has performed pretty well this year.
After losing back-to-back overtime games, the Huskies have won 3 straight, a run of form punctuated by last week’s 51-10 trouncing of FIU. After nearly upsetting Syracuse in the Dome in Week 2, UConn has controlled games. Even in a 44-41 road loss to Delaware, UConn had a positive net success rate and 521 yards of offense. According to Game on Paper, UConn is 28th nationally in net adjusted EPA per play.
Boston College is 99th. The 1-5 Eagles have lost every game they have played against FBS competition so far, and they’ve been outscored by Pitt and Clemson 89-17 over the last 2 games. Pitt started a true freshman for the first time against the Eagles. Clemson scored more points on BC than it did on UNC.
In the 5 FBS games BC has played, the defense has surrendered an average of 38 points per contest. And the opponents have all been bad themselves. The 5 teams that have beaten Boston College this season are a combined 3-12 against other power conference competition.
This season, UConn ranks 20th nationally in yards per play, with 8.6% of its offensive snaps going for at least 20 yards. The Huskies can hit big plays, but aren’t reliant on them. Per Game on Paper, they rank in the 87th percentile for EPA per play on non-explosives. They have a running back who is top-10 nationally in rushing and a quarterback who has yet to throw a pick on the season.
I’d even consider taking UConn outright in this spot.
Bet UConn +2.5 (-115 via FanDuel)
No. 5 Ole Miss at No. 9 Georgia
Georgia trailed Auburn 16-0 on the road. It could have been 17-0, but Auburn didn’t get an opportunity to kick the extra point after Jackson Arnold scored from a yard out on third-and-goal. For some reason, the officiating crew in charge of the game awarded Georgia a fumble. Hugh Freeze doesn’t know what that reason is. I don’t know what that reason is. (Well… we might.) But we all saw Arnold score.
We also saw what happened from that point on. Georgia scored the game’s final 20 points to win in Jordan-Hare. The game was closer than the final margin indicated. Despite holding Auburn to 40 total yards in the second half, Georgia outgained the Tigers in the game by just 19 yards.
The same Auburn offense that looked helpless against Oklahoma and broken against Texas A&M looked clueless over its final 5 possessions against the Dawgs. But I can’t rinse those first 4 possessions from my mind. Auburn had a 3-and-out on its third drive against Georgia. The first 2 drives went 75 and then 70 yards to produce 10 points. The fourth drive went 79 yards to produce 6 points. Auburn possessed the ball for more than 20 minutes of game clock on just those 3 drives alone.
Let’s call a spade a spade: Georgia is not what we thought it was.
And I’m fading the Dawgs this week. We’ve already seen one team go into Athens to beat the Bulldogs this year. Ole Miss, despite looking sloppy against Washington State, has the tools to beat Georgia for a second consecutive time.
If you are worried about the 24-21 win over Washington State, I won’t try to change your mind. The Rebels looked poor against a team with half their talent. But for an early kick in an out-of-conference game with Georgia looming, I think the Rebels just got caught looking ahead. I don’t think anyone in Oxford took that game seriously. They will almost certainly be taking this Week 8 matchup seriously.
Since the quarterback switch to Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss has scored points on 15 of its 22 first-half possessions (68.2%). Over the last 4 games, the Rebels have averaged 3.7 points per possession across all first halves.
And Georgia has made a habit this season of getting pantsed in the first half only to climb back into games later on. It’s true, the coaching staff has been able to make halftime adjustments that have led to better performances later in games, but the Dawgs didn’t overcome the deficit against Alabama and I just have to put a giant asterisk on the Auburn result because of the officiating discrepancies.
This season, Georgia has been outscored in the aggregate by power conference competition in the first half of games. The Bulldogs have given up points on 10 of the 20 first-half drives they have faced while allowing 3.1 points per possession. Kentucky missed a 26-yard field goal. Auburn had the touchdown that wasn’t counted. Add those into the equation and the Dawgs would be looking at 3.6 points per possession allowed. Heading into Week 7, only 5 FBS defenses were allowing 3.6 points per possession or worse.
I think Ole Miss can play from behind in this game. Georgia’s lack of pass rush will become a problem against Chambliss, who can hurt lighter boxes with his legs and has been excellent when blitzed. But if the Rebels jump out to an early lead and Georgia has to rely on its throw game, it’ll be going into the teeth of the Ole Miss defense, which has been excellent against the pass this season.
Bet Ole Miss +7.5 (-130 via ESPN Bet)
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Alabama
Tennessee actually rates better than Alabama in SP+. The Vols are 0.2 points better on a neutral field. Give Alabama a couple of points for home-field, and SP+ points to a slim Tide victory but a Tennessee cover.
I disagree with the model. Given my record this season, that probably says more about me than the model, but I think Alabama can potentially roll this Tennessee team.
My biggest question with Tennessee’s offense coming into the season was how Joey Aguilar’s gunslinger mentality would pair with Josh Heupel’s offense. So far, Aguilar hasn’t been the reason Tennessee lost or found itself in a fight.
He has only 5 interceptions while averaging 9.2 yards per pass attempt with a 64.8% completion rate. He was picked off twice by Georgia in an overtime loss, but the defense gave up 44 points. He was picked off twice by Mississippi State in an overtime win, but the defense gave up 34. Per PFF, Aguilar has a 1% turnover-worthy play rate this season. He was at 4.9% and 5.4% in his 2 previous seasons.
Aguilar has largely answered the question. The UT offense is good. And the Vols should be able to run on Alabama in order to stay on schedule.
The concern here is with the defense. And it’s a deep-seated concern, to be clear. Tennessee ranks 112th in adjusted EPA per play. The Vols rank 110th in allowed success rate. They win at the line of scrimmage enough and get themselves into some advantageous third-down situations, but the secondary is too much of a liability for those positives to make much of a difference.
More than a quarter of all passes against this UT defense produce at least 10 yards. One in every 10 passes goes for 20 yards. SEC opposition has a 19.8% explosive pass play rate against the Vols. Those 3 opponents have averaged 36.3 points. And none of them come close to the quality of this Alabama offense.
Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson is arguably sitting in the driver’s seat for the Heisman Trophy. At home, I think Simpson could have his Heisman moment and carve up the UT defense. The Tide feel like they’re hitting their groove.
Bet Alabama -7.5 (-115 via DraftKings)
No. 20 USC at No. 13 Notre Dame
USC quarterback Jayden Maiava and Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr are 2 of the 11 highest-rated quarterbacks in the country by Total QBR. Maiava’s 93.1 mark leads all qualified FBS passers.
Only 1 FBS offense (Texas Tech) has produced more plays of 20 yards from scrimmage than Notre Dame (45) and USC (44) have this season. Notre Dame is gaining at least 20 yards on 11.6% of its plays. USC is at 11.0%.
The Trojans lead the nation in adjusted EPA per play, according to Game on Paper. Notre Dame ranks 18th.
USC’s 5.6 yards allowed per play ranks 83rd nationally. Notre Dame gives up 5.3 to rank 55th. Over the last 2 weeks, the Notre Dame defense has figured a few things out, but those games were against Boise State and NC State. Though the Irish held Arkansas to just 13 points, the Razorbacks were better on a per-play basis than Purdue was the week prior.
Notre Dame, already saddled with 2 losses, desperately needs this win not only to keep the door to the College Football Playoff open, but to boost an otherwise unimpressive résumé to propel it through said door. USC still has a road trip to Oregon on its schedule, so a win here would give the 5-1 Trojans the ability to drop another game in Big Ten play and that safety blanket is much-needed.
USC’s ability to run on Michigan (224 yards) a week ago with a freshman walk-on tailback and 2 missing starters on the offensive line was something remarkable. Strange as it may seem, Lincoln Riley is actually earning his keep in LA this season.
There will be points here between these 2 rivals.
Bet over 61 total points (-115 via Fanatics)
FAU at No. 19 South Florida
This nugget was given out in last week’s column:
Since the start of the 2023 season, only 11 FBS games have closed with a point total at or above 69 points. The under cashed in 7 of the 11 games. (Fun fact: North Texas was involved in 3 of the 4 games when the over cashed.)
Knowing that information, I still backed the Arkansas-Tennessee game to clear a wildly high 69-point total. After the 2 sides combined for 34 first-half points, it looked like we might get close, but the scoring slowed in the third and the total ended 5 points shy.
There was 1 other FBS vs. FBS game last week that featured a point total around 69 early in the week — FAU vs. UAB. That total was driven down to 65 at its close and then the Owls and Blazers smashed it, combining for 80 points in just the first 3 quarters.
Overs have cashed in 4 of FAU’s last 5 games. Overs have cashed in 4 straight games for South Florida, which has been ripping through defenses since that lopsided loss to Miami.
The Bulls scored 63 on South Carolina State in Week 4, then put 54 points on Charlotte in Week 6 and 63 points on North Texas in Week 7.
This feels like an overreaction to the recent results of both teams. Both have defenses that rank top-60 in adjusted EPA per play faced. FAU is coming off a win over a program that should have fired its head coach a year ago (and finally did on Sunday). Before that, the Owls averaged 22 points a game in their previous 4 FBS games.
Bet under 73.5 total points (-110 via BetMGM)
Upset Spot of the Week: No. 16 Missouri at Auburn
I’m not surprised to see Auburn favored at home in this spot, given everything that was previously discussed in the Georgia section. That doesn’t mean I don’t love getting Mizzou as an underdog here.
The loss to Georgia feels like the kind of loss that can snowball into another for even an iron-clad locker room. And until Auburn makes a move at quarterback, I just can’t get behind Hugh Freeze’s Tigers to be different from what they’ve been.
“It’s clear that we find ways to not win football games,” Freeze said.
The sequence at the end of the first half against Georgia was the perfect summation of the Freeze era. Controversy aside, the Tigers had a touchdown go down as a turnover, committed a targeting penalty that cost them their best defender, and committed a roughing penalty. Just when you think it can’t get more absurd, it does.
Now, Freeze and his Tigers have to immediately turn around and face an angry Mizzou team that will feel like it let one slip away.
Missouri had a chance to knock off Alabama at home and quarterback Beau Pribula played perhaps the worst game he’ll play all season. Pribula threw 28 passes for just 167 yards (6.0 per throw) while turning the ball over twice. He tried to do too much right down to the end, when he tried to thread a seam ball instead of taking a modest gain to a wide-open man near the boundary.
But I thought Missouri handled the line of scrimmage well on both sides of the ball against Alabama. The Tigers averaged 6.6 yards per rush, adjusted for sacks, and held Alabama to 3.8. Mizzou produced 4 sacks and 7 tackles for loss as their linemen kept Bama blockers from climbing and their second-level defenders came screaming at ball-carriers.
Georgia couldn’t take advantage of Auburn’s leaky protection the way Oklahoma and Texas A&M did. Mizzou has a chance to play in the Auburn backfield a ton.
With Auburn at 0-3 in SEC play, a slow start or a lull at any point in the game threatens to turn the environment toxic for the home coach.
Bet Missouri money line (-115 via bet365)
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
