Hard to believe we’re already into Week 9 of the 2025 season. Most teams have only 5 games to play, which means the pressure is about to turn up.
This weekend is a little light on big-time matchups. There are only 3 games between ranked opponents. Of course, all 3 are between SEC teams.
Let’s get to it.
Last week: 6-2
2025 season: 29-34-1
2024 season: 84-69-1
Week 9 schedule, odds
At SDS, we’ve got you covered all season with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every Week 9 game below.
Week 9 picks
You can find my early bets for the week below. After that, I’ll break down each game on the card.
Cal at Virginia Tech
For starters, the 2-5 Hokies are 1-6 against the spread this season. They have already lost 3 games outright this year as a favorite. Since beating NC State on the road, Virginia Tech has back-slid into losses to Wake Forest and Georgia Tech.
In the most recent defeat, the Hokies gave up nearly 500 yards, lost the turnover battle for the third time this season, and committed 10 penalties. They’re one of the more undisciplined teams in the country — committing 7 penalties a game and giving up nearly 6 tackles for loss a game. Their pass blocking is a mess and their quarterback is erratic, at best.
That’s how you could describe Cal as well, to be fair. The Golden Bears are 5-2 on the season. One of those losses was a 34-0 shutout at San Diego State. The other was a 45-21 drubbing at home by Duke. In the 2 defeats, freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele completed 53.6% of his throws for 6.6 yards per play with 5 interceptions and 1 touchdown.
In the Bears’ 5 wins, Sagapolutele has a 63.4% completion rate, a 6.9 yards-per-throw clip, and a 9:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
If he plays well, Cal wins. If he turns the ball over, Cal loses. He’s your typical freshman quarterback.
Virginia Tech has only forced 5 turnovers in its 7 games. The defense has had a hard time doing much of anything. Edge Ben Bell (22 pressures) is the only Hokie who has been able to consistently defeat blocks and affect the quarterback this season. Of the 53 ACC defenders with more than 10 quarterback pressures so far this season, only 1 plays for Virginia Tech.
The only thing the defense does with any modicum of success is force long third downs. But they also give up a ton of chunk plays through the air.
Virginia Tech is coming off a bye week that should help from a health standpoint. Cal is coming across the country for the matchup, but even though it’s a Friday night game, the Bears get a full week of prep after playing North Carolina on a Friday night in Week 8. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in Eastern time zone games since joining the ACC, and they’re the better team here.
Bet Cal +4.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Appalachian State at Old Dominion
Both these teams are 4-3 on the season and 1-2 in Sun Belt play, but they’ve gone about assembling those records in very different ways.
App State has bullied a bunch of bad teams and gotten trucked by the quality opponents it has faced. The Mountaineers have wins against FCS Lindenwood, Charlotte, Oregon State, and Georgia State. The last 3 are a combined 0-16 against all other FBS competition this season. App State has lost to Southern Miss by 16, Boise State by 33, and Coastal Carolina by 8.
Coastal trailed 31-17 in the third quarter and came back to win. Southern Miss used a 38-7 run to run away from App State. The defense is a major issue and the offense struggles to break off chunks at a time.
Old Dominion, meanwhile, already has a road win this season over a power conference opponent (Virginia Tech) and played Indiana better in Bloomington than Illinois did. The Monarchs also smashed Coastal 47-7 earlier this year.
They are coming off back-to-back disappointing losses in which the defense gave up a combined 111 points. James Madison just dropped 63 on Old Dominion. The JMU quarterback, Alonza Barnett III got whatever he wanted against the Monarchs’ defense. James Madison ran 79 plays in that one and the ODU defense was toast in the second half.
There’s bounceback potential here on the Monarchs’ side of things. Old Dominion ranks sixth nationally in offensive efficiency, averaging 7.4 yards per play. It has a top-10 rushing attack and a 58% run rate on the season. Mobile quarterbacks have given this ODU defense fits, but the straight drop-back passers have struggled to do much.
I could see this being another one-sided ODU win where the Monarchs control the pace of play and win by a couple of scores.
Bet under 62.5 total points (-108 via DraftKings)
Northwestern at Nebraska
The 2023 meeting between these 2 teams in Lincoln featured 26 total points. The 2019 game had 23. There have been some absolute stinkers between these sides of late, but more often than not the games are barn-burners. Including the trip to Dublin in 2022, 9 of the 13 games they’ve played against each other since Nebraska joined the conference have cleared 50 total points.
After Nebraska sleep-walked through its trip to Minneapolis last weekend, there are a couple different ways this could play out.
Nebraska could still look off-kilter as rumors continue to swirl about Matt Rhule’s future. Northwestern, playing with a ton of confidence lately after 4 straight wins, comes into Lincoln and punches NU in the mouth.
That feels less likely, but with a total so low and a couple pathways to points for both sides, I like playing the over.
Nebraska putting some points on the Wildcats feels perfectly plausible. The only halfway-decent offense the Wildcats have seen this season was Oregon’s, and the Ducks had 31 points going into the third quarter before letting off the gas, so I’m not entirely sold on this unit as a true top-20 defense. (Northwestern is 11th in scoring, allowing 15.1 a game.)
Nebraska’s offensive line is a massive liability. Quarterback Dylan Raiola was sacked 7 times by Michigan and 9 times by Minnesota. But Northwestern doesn’t create sacks (11 in 7 games), and it doesn’t really blitz a ton. The Wildcats just take away explosive pass plays. The Huskers’ backs should be involved.
Northwestern quarterback Preston Stone hasn’t been the turnover machine he was through the first few weeks of the season, when he threw 6 in 3 games, but he’s still not doing much through the air. Last week agaisnt Purdue, Stone threw 26 passes for 132 yards with a pick. He’s averaging only 6.5 yards per attempt this season with 15 turnover-worthy plays. A couple of turnovers on the road that lead to a couple of extra possessions for Nebraska and Northwestern will find itself having to chase.
Bet over 44 total points (-105 via Fanatics)
No. 8 Ole Miss at No. 13 Oklahoma
It seems like a prudent time to re-evaluate what Ole Miss is. In 4 SEC games, the Rebels have given up 23, 35, 19, and 43 points. Kentucky scored half a point more than its season average. LSU was right around its average if we only look at games against FBS competition. Arkansas was right around its season average as well. Georgia was well above.
We wrote off the Washington State performance because it was an early-morning nonconference home game a week before a massive showdown with the Dawgs. Maybe we shouldn’t have. The Ole Miss defense never made it to Athens.
Georgia had 9 possessions in the game against Ole Miss.
Georgia scored points on its first 8 possessions.
The ninth featured 3 kneel-downs to kill the clock on an 8-point win.
Georgia went 6-of-11 on third down and 1-for-1 on fourth down. The Dawgs averaged 6.4 yards per play and 4.7 yards per run (adjusted for sacks). Ole Miss only stopped 3 of Georgia’s 80 plays in the backfield for a loss. And quarterback Gunner Stockton completed 26 of his 31 passes for 289 yards and 4 scores.
The completion rate for Stockton was a career-high. The 9.3 yards-per-pass clip rivaled what he did against a much-maligned Tennessee defense. The 4 passing scores were a career-high. Georgia got whatever it wanted against this Ole Miss defense.
Arkansas missed 2 field goals and fumbled the ball earlier this season against the Rebels. That’s the only other game this year Ole Miss has played against a halfway-decent offense. Between the 2 games, the Ole Miss defense faced 18 drives and forced 1 punt. Ten of the 18 drives ended with touchdowns. Five more ended with a field goal attempt. One ended with a fumble. One ended because the game clock hit zero.
Is Ole Miss capable of stopping anyone with a pulse? That’s a legitimate question right now.
Oklahoma‘s offense is not great, but the Sooners at least have weapons to hurt a defense and, if quarterback John Mateer is back closer to 100%, they should be able to move the football.
Oklahoma’s defense is, however, great. The Sooners lead the nation in sacks and tackles for loss. They create energy for the home crowd, which amplifies that energy and gives it right back to the defense. Falling behind the chains is not something you want to do against the Sooners.
While Georgia didn’t stop a single play in the backfield for a loss, the Bulldogs were able to make Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss uncomfortable in the pocket. In the fourth quarter, Chambliss looked shaky and unsure, completing just 1 of his 10 pass attempts. Ole Miss ran 11 plays and gained 13 yards. The noise bothered the Rebels. Now they have to go back out on the road to face one of the best defenses in the country.
Georgia couldn’t stop a nose bleed until the fourth quarter. The Sooners likely won’t gift Ole Miss 45 minutes to put points on the board. When the battle at the line of scrimmage feels so heavily slanted in favor of the home team, I have a hard time seeing Ole Miss put points on the board.
Bet under 52.5 total points (-110 via BetMGM)
No. 18 South Florida at Memphis
South Florida is coming off a 48-13 demolition of FAU and a 63-36 mauling of North Texas. Since the loss to Miami, the Bulls have averaged 57 points a game.
Memphis is coming off its first loss of the season, a 31-24 stunner on the road to an interim coach-led UAB team. The Tigers had looked like a threat to make the College Football Playoff. Now, they’re in danger of missing out on the AAC title game.
SP+ predicts a 5-point Memphis win this weekend, and that model isn’t built to account for the mental “do or die” element.
South Florida’s offense has been rolling against garbage defenses. It scored 63 against FCS South Carolina State. It put 54 on a Charlotte team that ranks 126th in allowed success rate. North Texas and FAU both rank outside the top 40 in defensive success rate as well.
While Memphis doesn’t have elite efficiency metrics, the Tigers don’t give up points. They rank 23rd nationally in allowed points per play. On average, it takes opposing offenses 25 plays to produce a touchdown against the Tigers. Charlotte and FAU rank among the bottom 15 in the FBS. North Texas ranks 69th.
Memphis has 14 takeaways this season, 10 of them interceptions. Memphis also ranks top-15 in average tackles for loss per game. When you have to pound the ball to get points, you open yourself up to mistakes. USF quarterback Byrum Brown has mostly played mistake-free this season, and the Bulls probably can’t afford for that to change in this spot.
I like the Tigers to put up a fight in a game they can’t afford to lose. Maybe they got caught looking ahead last week. Maybe they turn Brown over. I think the defense keeps the Tigers in the fight.
Bet Memphis +4 (-115 via Fanatics)
No. 4 Alabama at South Carolina
After a 10-point performance in the loss to LSU, South Carolina managed only 7 points against the Sooners on Saturday. The Gamecocks averaged only 3.3 yards per play and gave up 13 tackles for loss. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers was pulled in the fourth quarter after averaging a smidge under 5 yards per pass attempt. And, since the game ended, head coach Shane Beamer has been asked about staff changes and other jobs.
He was testy Saturday night when asked about shifting responsibilities along the offensive coaching staff. A report on Saturday said Beamer-to-Virginia Tech had “legitimacy,” which prompted him to say on Sunday that he is “working my rear end off” to fix South Carolina’s problems.
The issue at present is that South Carolina’s problems can’t be fixed on the fly. The offensive line stinks.
Sellers has been pressured on 48% of his drop-backs this season. He has a 42.9% completion rate and averages 4.3 yards per pass when pressured. Entering the season, Sellers’ ability to make pass rushers miss and extend plays with his legs was viewed as his best attribute, but through 7 games, he has averaged 15.4 rushing yards per game.
South Carolina is 1 of only 5 teams in the country averaging under 3 yards per rushing attempt this season. The Gamecocks have given up 26 sacks, only 1 behind nation-worst Auburn. And the Gamecocks are 1 of only 10 FBS teams to have allowed at least 50 tackles for loss already.
The Gamecocks, who cannot protect their quarterback, have a 43.9% success rate on standard downs.
Relief is simply not coming this season.
This feels like a natural spot to look for a letdown given Alabama’s recent run of form. Saturday’s game will be Alabama’s fifth in as many weeks, and the first 4 all came against ranked opposition. But with so much negativity swirling around the South Carolina program, its hard to envision the kind of hornet’s nest required for a broken team to muster the Rohirrim and pull an upset.
Alabama is coming off a performance in which its defense created 8 TFLs, 4 sacks, and a turnover. The Tide have managed to work around a leaky run defense and separate from good SEC teams in recent weeks. They should not have much trouble putting South Carolina away.
Bet Alabama -13.5 (-105 via DraftKings)
No. 15 Missouri at No. 10 Vanderbilt
In its first road game of the season, Missouri was dead to rights before Auburn, as it has done all year, gave the game away. The Tigers got a field goal off an Auburn giveaway and then scored on a 9-play, 65-yard touchdown drive. After that, Mizzou’s following 7 possessions were (in order): interception, punt, punt, punt, punt, touchdown, interception.
After Auburn missed a field goal in the opening overtime period, Mizzou had a chance to end the game and missed its own field goal. Auburn also missed 2 field goals in regulation. In the second half, Mizzou was outgained, out-possessed, and lost a turnover. The game went to overtime because of those 2 missed kicks.
Mizzou quarterback Beau Pribula threw 2 interceptions for the second-straight game and completed under 60% of his passes for the second-straight game. Pribula, who has at least 1 pick in each of his last 5 games, has the arm talent to make some big-time throws, but he’s having a hard time reading things right now.
Pressure isn’t helping. Mizzou’s lack of a vertical threat isn’t helping. And Auburn is one of the better defensive fronts Mizzou will see all year.
Those mistakes can’t carry into Week 9, because Vanderbilt probably has the best offense Mizzou will see all year. Vandy ranks seventh nationally in yards per play (7.4) and averages 41 points a game.
The Commodores just put 31 on an LSU defense that had previously allowed 10 points or less in 5 of its first 6. And the ‘Dores handled LSU. The final margin is a little misleading. Vandy was up 24-13 and then 31-21 going into the fourth. LSU couldn’t make Diego Pavia uncomfortable and it couldn’t get the ground game going outside of 1 breakout run from Caden Durham.
Pavia stole the show with his theatrics, but the game ball probably belongs to the defense. LSU snapped the ball inside Vandy’s 40-yard line on 5 drives and had to settle for 4 field goals. The Tigers had the ball second-and-goal from the 1 and wound up kicking a 23-yard field goal.
LSU hit a few big plays to keep itself from getting embarrassed. Vandy’s confidence seemed to soar throughout the game.
Maybe there’s a letdown coming, but Pavia seems like the kind of leader who can combat feelings of entitlement within a locker room. And Vandy is 7-4 ATS at home since his arrival.
I’m in under the key number of 3 here, which is important from Vandy’s side of things.
Bet Vanderbilt -2.5 (-124 via FanDuel)
Upset Spot of the Week: Toledo at Washington State
I’m going back to the well with Toledo this week after the Rockets burned my face off in Week 7. All 3 losses have come on the road, but all of those games have been wild.
Toledo played Kentucky to an 8-point result in Lexington to open the season. It lost by a point to Western Michigan in Week 4 after the Broncos scored with less than a minute remaining and went for the win with a (successful) 2-point conversion. In the loss to Bowling Green, Toledo blew a 21-0 lead to lose 28-23.
The 28 points the Falcons scored represented the most any opponent has earned against Toledo this season. The Rockets followed that disappointment up with a 45-10 win over Kent State, a game in which Toledo scored 45 unaswered.
Since beating San Diego State 36-13 in the second week of the season, Washington State hasn’t scored more than 24 points. The Cougars are coming off back-to-back tightly-fought losses on the road to Ole Miss and Virginia.
Wazzu is constantly losing the field position battle. The defense is bad and the offense just doesn’t do enough consistently to make up for it.
I’m rolling the dice one more time with Toledo and hoping this road chaos starts to swing the other direction.
Bet Toledo money line (+110 via DraftKings)
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
