The appetizer was great.
NFL snobs thumbed their noses at the 2025 edition of the Aer Lingus College Football Classic, calling it “God-awful college football,” but us degenerates at the semi-professional level of the sport knew that what Kansas State and Iowa State displayed on Saturday in the rain in Dublin was everything that makes this season so darned fun. The only thing missing was a random, “I’m smarter than you” onside kick.
And then Week 0 followed that opener up with UNLV crapping down its leg at home against what has been a terrible FCS team for years. Then Kansas ripped Fresno State apart. Then Western Kentucky and Sam Houston gave us a rip-roaring third quarter. Then Stanford found a way to reach a new low.
Now, we get the main course.
Week 1 of the 2025 college football season features games across 5 different nights and 3 — three!! — matchups between AP top-10 squads. If you love college football for what makes college football lovable, there’s a little bit of everything in this opening week.
Welcome back.
Here’s how to bet the early market for Week 1.
- Last week: 3-1
- Last season: 84-69-1
(All odds via BetMGM unless otherwise noted.)
Week 1 schedule, odds
At SDS, we’ve got you covered all season with live, up-to-date college football odds. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every Week 1 game below.
Auburn at Baylor
I’m backing Baylor as a home dog against this Auburn team every single day of the week and twice on Saturday.
Auburn is the favorite in the betting market, but most of the projection models have this game as a coin flip in Waco. Given just how much uncertainty exists around *gestures in all directions* the Tigers, backing the home side with a proven, quality quarterback seems like a safe bet. Baylor closed out the 2024 regular season on a heater, winning 6 straight after dropping 3 in a row. All 6 of those outright victories also beat the point spread, capped off by a 45-17 victory over Kansas as a 2.5-point dog.
Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson, who ended the season fifth nationally in Total QBR, was not perfect by any means down the stretch, but he had huge moments and generally piloted an offense that did 2 things exceptionally well — produce chunk plays and avoid negative ones. The vast majority of that offense returns for 2025, including 4 starters on the offensive line. Baylor did lose half of its 2-man tailback rotation (Dawson Pendergrass) to injury but even with that fall camp blow, there’s still enough here for the offense to keep humming.
The Bears ended last season 24th in adjusted offensive EPA per play. That’ll do. The defense was bad, particularly defending the pass, and that means Baylor will be a team that knows it has to score points to win football games — at least early in the new season.
Auburn is not made to win high-scoring affairs. If I’m an Auburn fan, I don’t want to see this offense in a shootout. Jackson Arnold lost his job at Oklahoma because he couldn’t make the right decisions, he couldn’t navigate a pocket, and he couldn’t deliver passes where they needed to go. There were red flags in camp that those concerns still linger.
Add to that the fact that Arnold is a check-down guy now thrust into an offense that compels the quarterback to push the ball downfield, sprinkle in a convoluted system of play-calling for the new season that will have 3 guys whispering in Arnold’s ear, and you have the makings of a clunky, if not slow, offensive start.
Auburn’s defense was excellent last season, and it features stars all over the field this season. That group should keep Auburn in contention for a bowl game. But I do worry that offensive inconsistency might persist.
Baylor has the edge, to me.
Bet Baylor +2.5 (-110 via bet365)
UNLV at Sam Houston
Woaaaaaaaaaah buddy. The Dan Mullen era at UNLV opened with a victory, but it did not look pretty. Against an Idaho State team that had 10 wins in its last 45 games — with 15 defeats by at least 24 points during that stretch — the Rebels allowed 7.2 yards per play. Idaho State averaged 7.1 yards per rushing attempt, adjusted for sacks.
In completely flipping the roster, Mullen loaded up on former power conference transfers. The assumption I made was that the size/athleticism gap would render any scheme or skill difference moot. That proved to be a stupid assumption.
The UNLV defense got cooked. Idaho State quarterback Jordan Cooke threw for 380 yards. If not for 3 interceptions, Idaho State probably wins the football game. UNLV gave up 12.7 yards per completion and only got to the quarterback for 1 sack.
In coaching, the age-old adage is that you make the biggest improvement as a team from Game 1 to Game 2, but this defense has a long way to go. And now it gets to face an up-tempo, Phil Longo Air Raid system.
Sam Houston’s defense also looked terrible in its opening game, to be fair. The Bearcats gave up 401 yards through the air to Western Kentucky and allowed an 11-for-19 performance on third down.
The offense showed signs of life. Seven penalties hurt. They missed a field goal early in the second quarter after a sustained drive. They threw a pick in the fourth quarter after a sustained drive and then sputtered out after that. But they broke a 55-yard run for a score, put together a 5-play, 75-yard march for a touchdown in the third, and averaged 6.3 yards per play.
Sam Houston only had 7 explosive gains all game, but 4 of those 7 went for at least 35 yards. UNLV gave up 18 explosive plays in the opener and missed tackles all over the field.
In this spot, I think betting the over on the overall game total (60.5 points, via BetMGM) is certainly in play. But I like Sam Houston’s team total. FanDuel has that number at 24.5, with nearly even odds on the over. I love that option.
Bet Sam Houston team total over 24.5 points (-102 via FanDuel)
No. 1 Texas at No. 3 Ohio State
The final preseason numbers from SP+ would make Ohio State a 3-point favorite on a neutral field. And that system has no way to account for how a first-time starter will perform in a very un-neutral environment. Arch Manning could be outstanding for Texas. He could absolutely live up to the hype. But I expect there to be some bumps early. This is the first legitimate defense he has faced in his college career, and that defense has had an entire offseason to prepare for him.
If Manning is just simply OK, Texas has some potential issues on offense. The line has to replace a couple of NFL-bound tackles. The receiver room is completely unproven. For all the talent last year’s group had, this was not a top-25 offense. Memphis and UCF and Georgia Tech were better, from an adjusted EPA per play standpoint. If Manning is everything they say he is, the Longhorns will most likely be a top-25 offense in 2025. But, again, I think its more prudent to wait and see before anointing him the next Tim Tebow.
Defensively, Texas should be awesome.
Additionally, Ohio State has a new quarterback, a bunch of NFL-bound guys that need to be replaced, and 2 new coordinators. There’s a ton of newness over on the home sideline as well. But Ohio State also has the 2 best players in the game, and both of those guys are complete game-changers. No one can guard Jeremiah Smith 1-on-1, and Ohio State has enough talent elsewhere to burn teams that dedicate additional bodies to Smith. Purdue transfer tight end Max Klare could have a big debut here.
In a matchup between 2 outstanding defenses and 2 unproven quarterbacks, I think Texas has the higher-upside passer, but I think I trust what the Buckeyes have around their guy more than what the Longhorns have around theirs. At least right now. Kick in the crowd edge, and I’m backing the reigning champs to win by a touchdown.
Bet Ohio State -2.5 (even via BetMGM)
Northwestern at Tulane
I feel like Michael Scott asking to have a surplus explained to him. I don’t get this number. Northwestern is being treated like it has Big Ten talent. Northwestern is a Big Ten team in association only. Tulane will see better athletes in conference play than it will in this game, which will be played at home.
Tulane has a coaching advantage. Tulane has a quarterback advantage. The Northwestern offensive line is banking on FCS reinforcements being solidifying forces, while the offense as a whole is relying on SMU transfer Preston Stone to be a savior. The last time we saw Stone, he was benched for ineffective play. He won’t have the same kind of defense he had at SMU, and he can’t afford to be ineffective in Evanston, because the guy who started for Northwestern last year and would have provided quality depth decided to quit football for baseball.
I don’t mean to sound dismissive of Northwestern. But SP+ puts the distance between these 2 squads at 12.3 points on a neutral field. Give Tulane a couple of points for playing this game at home, and you’ve got almost 3 times as large a spread as what Vegas is projecting. And this number is already down from the 7.5 points it opened at.
Bet Tulane -5.5 (-108 via DraftKings)
No. 8 Alabama at Florida State
Mike Norvell is attempting to resurrect a Florida State program that completely collapsed after the 2023 season ended in heartbreak. The Seminoles were atrocious last year and they responded this offseason by replacing both coordinators, going to the portal for an entirely new starting 11 on offense, and shuffling a number of key contributors from the 2024 squad out the door.
The Florida State defense was awful a year ago — 103rd in adjusted EPA per play — but the offense was offensive. Even with the late-season loss of Jordan Travis and the sputtering that took place on that side of the ball in the aftermath of his injury, FSU still had a top-50 offense in 2023. In 2024, the Seminoles dropped from 42nd in opponent-adjusted EPA per play to 130th.
Norvell tapped DJ Uiagalelei to be the next man up after Travis.
After that ended in completely predictable disaster, Norvell went out and grabbed the 5-foot-11 Tommy Castellanos to be the next next man up.
In doing so, he opened himself up to significant concern about his ability to evaluate the quarterback position. Castellanos over his final 5 outings at Boston College before being benched:
- 12.9 QBR, 4 sacks
- 25.9 QBR, 3 sacks, 2 turnovers
- 15.2 QBR, 4 sacks
- 35.2 QBR, 1 sack
- 0.9 QBR, 2 sacks, 1 turnover
His 38.3 Total QBR for the season was among the 25 worst seasons by a qualified ACC quarterback in the last 20 years. Then he told the Alabama defense this offseason that Nick Saban wasn’t around to “save them” this preseason.
The Alabama secondary could be 1 of the very best units in the entire country. SP+ projects Alabama’s defense as the sixth-best overall defense in college football this season. That unit ended last season 10th nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA per play and returned a bunch of key figures.
I trust Alabama will be out to prove a point in this first game. If you’re taking a wait-and-see approach with the Crimson Tide quarterback situation a bit of an unknown, and want to avoid the point spread, that’s sensible. I could see Alabama winning this game by 20 points, but factoring in the quarterback element, I’m reaching for the FSU team total. It’s 17.5, and that’s a touchdown too high given what I’ve seen from Castellanos and the Alabama defense.
Bet Florida State team total under 17.5 points (-120 via FanDuel)
No. 9 LSU at No. 4 Clemson
I think we’re in for a bit of a show with these 2 quarterbacks in Week 1. Both LSU and Clemson have loaded receiver rooms, future NFL passers, and a ton to prove in the opener.
You typically expect to see missed tackles and busted coverages in Week 1. That remains the case even when the matchup is as high-profile as this one. I also wonder if there’s anything to the notion that all the preseason NFL buzz for the Clemson defensive line is tied more to quality of competition and less to actual ability. Clemson was 42nd in opponent-adjusted EPA per play last year on defense, and it ranked in the 16th percentile for rushing EPA per play allowed. There are supposedly 2 future first-rounders on this Clemson defensive line — guys I really like, for what it’s worth — but that meant nothing on the actual field last fall. Clemson couldn’t stop the run.
And if a defense can’t stop the run against an offense with a quarterback like Garrett Nussmeier, it’s going to be a long day.
I’ve stated several times this offseason that I believe Clemson ultimately wins this game. LSU has just as many questions. But I have a hard time seeing this as anything other than a back-and-forth affair.
Both offenses are going to find big plays and score points. The total for this game isn’t high enough.
Bet over 57.5 total points (-110 via BetMGM)
Missouri State at USC
Missouri State begins its 2-year transition to the FBS level in 2025. Its official welcome party will take place in Los Angeles, where it gets to be the sacrificial lamb for Lincoln Riley and the Trojans.
Riley is 4-4 against the spread in season-openers. He has absolutely bludgeoned bad teams (2022 Rice) and been frustrated by pesky teams (2021 Tulane).
What will Missouri State be in 2025? Probably not a pesky squad. According to Bill Connelly’s preseason SP+ numbers, the Bears are projected to have the worst defense in the FBS. And Connelly’s model isn’t the only projection that says so. Kelley Ford’s ratings also have Missouri State pegged as the worst defense in the country.
USC should have one of the better offenses. Will it be an elite unit like the ones Riley built his reputation on? That remains to be seen. But against this defense in Week 1? USC might look unstoppable. The Trojans have a handful of playmakers who can ignite in an instant, so splash plays could be aplenty in this game.
Bet USC -35 (-110 via BetMGM)
Utah at UCLA
The Utes as a 6-point favorite on the road immediately stood out to me as another one of those curious Week 1 lines. UCLA was streaky last season — 0-2 ATS to open, then 6-1 ATS, then 0-3 ATS to close — but once it found its footing under coach DeShaun Foster, it was pretty lively at home. The Gophers only won by 4 in Pasadena. The Bruins upset Iowa, 20-17, as a 6.5-point underdog at home. They played USC tight and then beat Fresno State. In total, UCLA played 7 games last fall that were decided by 7 points or less.
They upgraded at the quarterback position, landing Nico Iamaleava from Tennessee, and landed a couple of playmakers from the transfer portal to put around him. Foster also poached Tino Sunseri to run his offense after a fabulous season as co-coordinator and quarterbacks coach for Curt Cignetti at Indiana.
Questions about the defense are fair in Westwood, but I don’t know if Utah is the team to really press that issue — especially in the opener. The Utes are breaking in a new offense, a new quarterback, and a ton of new starters. They project as a team that will take all the air out of the football and run it behind what should be a fabulous offensive line. At his previous school, coordinator Jason Beck called run about 54% of the time and his quarterback — who is now Utah’s quarterback — was significantly more effective running than throwing. We’ll see how the 5-foot-11 Devon Dampier does when he takes a step up in class.
Some books have Utah, which opened as a 3-point favorite, at 6.5 as of Monday night. If this gets above 7, there’s fair value on UCLA to cover. As it stands, I think the total is a better number to target. The other factor here is the weather. Southern California is expected to remain under extreme heat warnings for the rest of the week. Unabated sun and a high of 93 is projected for Saturday. As such, kickoff isn’t scheduled until 11 p.m. ET. These 2 sides will be waiting around all day.
Bet under 52.5 total points (-115 via DraftKings)
No. 6 Notre Dame at No. 10 Miami
I’m targeting Notre Dame’s team total in this game for a few reasons.
Miami has a new defensive coordinator — Corey Hetherman, who led a really good Minnesota unit last season — and that new play caller has 5 returning starters. The bulk of the promise in the Miami defense is in the front 7. The secondary — responsible for last season’s breakdowns — has been retooled. How does that unit fare? I don’t have an answer to that question.
On the other side, Notre Dame returns all the important playmakers who were part of last year’s run to the national championship. At quarterback, the Irish swap out the experience of Riley Leonard for the downfield threat posed by blue-chip youngster CJ Carr. The Irish’s new starting quarterback is really green, but he can make plays with his arm that just weren’t consistently a part of the Notre Dame offense last year. A more vertical passing attack should make life more enjoyable for tailback Jeremiyah Love. And if Love gets going, wideout Jaden Greathouse will be thankful.
Last season, Miami ranked in the 16th percentile for explosive run rate allowed and the 19th percentile for explosive pass rate allowed, per Game on Paper. Whereas last year’s Notre Dame offense was more methodical, this year’s group could be punchier.
Carr is lacking in experience, and a road game against a top-10 team right out of the gate is akin to throwing him into the deep end of the pool without any floaties. But if the Irish hit a couple of explosives early and Carr builds a head of steam, that lack of experience might not matter.
The quarterback on the other side is working with a new coordinator and an inexperienced collection of receivers. He’s coming off a down season and surgery on his throwing arm. Picks were a problem, and he’ll face one of the best cover corners in the sport in this first game. Turnovers could play a role as well.
Notre Dame has scored at least 27 points in 28 of its last 36 games under Marcus Freeman. I think it’ll break that threshold here.
Bet Notre Dame team total over 25.5 points (-114 via FanDuel)
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
