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Welcome back to Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball prediction series, where we’ll preview each ACC team and offer a game-by-game prediction.
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Coaching football at Boston College isn’t an easy job.
It’s a college program that barely registers a blip on the radar in a pro city. It’s a private Catholic school in a cold weather location. And BC hasn’t won more than 7 games in a season since 2010.
Four coaches ago.
It’s so difficult that even after posting a winning record and bowl victory with a solid returning core, Jeff Hafley decided it was a better career move to leave and become an assistant with the NFL’s Green Bay Packers than sticking around for another season as BC’s head man.
Hafley’s departure has given Bill O’Brien an opportunity to become the next man up to try and tackle the challenge.
O’Brien is no stranger to the territory. He’s a Boston native who served 2 tenures as a member of Bill Belichick’s staff with the New England Patriots.
And he’s even more familiar with difficult coaching situations.
He followed Joe Paterno at Penn State under the cloud of NCAA sanctions and public fallout from the Sandusky scandal. He’s also the offensive coordinator who took the heat for failing to deliver a national championship at Alabama in the 2 seasons Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young was in Tuscaloosa.
After spending time in those pressure cookers, with 6-plus seasons running the Houston Texans sandwiched in between, the task of coaching at BC is a chip shot field goal by comparison.
“This is a place where I felt really comfortable,” O’Brien said. “I love the people I spoke to in the interview process. I was comfortable going after the job and taking the job.
Now that he has the job, he’s confident in his ability to succeed where others have not.
“I have experience in connecting with a team,” he said. “I’ve hired a really good staff and I feel like we have a good connection with these guys. But we have to keep that going. We have to continue to earn their trust every day and establish our culture and what we do. I feel good within my own experience of being able to put that into play at Boston College and have a successful program.”
Success is a relative term, of course. And the bar at BC is set much lower than it was at Penn State or Alabama.
But that doesn’t make the job any easier.
Transfer tracker
Coaching changes have always brought about player movement, even before the era of open transfers. Surprisingly, though, O’Brien hasn’t had to deal with a roster overhaul.
The Eagles lost 17 players to the portal while bringing in 11 new veteran free agents.
Among the most significant losses are edge rusher Shitta Sillah (to Purdue), cornerback CJ Clinkscales (to Charlotte), wide receiver Joe Griffin (to Wisconsin), running backs Patrick Garwo (to Nevada) and quarterback Emmett Morehead (to Old Dominion).
The incoming transfer class is led by former North Carolina tight end Kamari Morales, former Kansas State and Florida State running back Treshaun Ward, Texas Tech wide receiver Jerand Bradley, Ohio State defensive backs Ryan Turner and Cameron Martinez and Georgia State cornerback Bryquice Brown.
Dual-threat quarterback, pro-style offense
O’Brien is a pro-style coach who has worked with the likes of Bryce Young, Deshaun Watson and Tom Brady. His arrival at BC and the offensive changes he’s made have led to questions about how his current quarterback – whose name also happens to be Tom – will adjust.
Thomas Castellanos is a true dual-threat performer whose 1,113 rushing yards were a driving force behind the Eagles’ success in 2023. But rather than being held back, O’Brien believes his junior leader will only get better because of his increased emphasis on the passing game.
“One of the things about Tommy is he’s not just a runner,” O’Brien said. “He’s a guy that has really improved a lot in the 6 months that we’ve been around him as a passer. We’re never going to try to rein in Tommy. Tommy brings a lot to our offense. He’s a dynamic player, a guy that can make a lot of off-schedule plays. He’s a quarterback. A really good quarterback. He’s our quarterback.”
Castellanos threw for 2,248 yards and 15 touchdowns in his first season after transferring from UCF. But he was also intercepted 14 times and his completion percentage of .572 was the lowest among the top-10 passers in the league.
“I was just trying to make some plays, bring some excitement and I got careless with the ball here and there,” Castellanos said. “This year I’m more mature. The game will be way slower. I’ve been coached. So this year the mistakes will be limited.”
Bulletin board material
The identity of the voter who picked Boston College to finish 1st in the ACC’s preseason media poll is still unknown. But suffice it to say, that person is in the minority.
BC ended up 14th out of 17 teams in the balloting, ahead of only Wake Forest, Virginia and newcomer Stanford. That’s about where O’Brien figured his team would be. But that isn’t stopping him from using the low placement as a motivational tool.
“Hell yeah, are you kidding me?” he said when asked by a reporter if he planned to use the poll as bulletin board material.
“I understand, no one thinks we’re going to be that good. We’ve got some of the better teams in the country in our conference, I get it. But we’ve got a good football team here and we’re really working hard to get to the point where we’re going to be ready for the season.”
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: at Florida State (L)
Welcome to the ACC, Bill O’Brien. The good news is that it won’t get any tougher than this.
Week 2: vs. Duquesne (W)
The Dukes made the FCS Playoffs last season, but they’re out of their league when they get out of their lane. They lost to the 2 FBS teams on their schedule in 2023 – West Virginia and Coastal Carolina – by a combined 122-24 margin.
Week 3: at Missouri (L)
Beating a ranked SEC opponent on the road is too big an ask for a team still developing an identity under a new coach.
Week 4: vs. Michigan State (W)
O’Brien inherited a much better situation than new Spartans coach Jonathan Smith. Both on and off the field.
Week 5: vs. Western Kentucky (W)
The Eagles better not get caught looking over the Hilltoppers. They were a bowl team last year. They’re no joke. Their high-powered offense can put up a big number. But Castellanos and his offense should be able to put up an even bigger one.
Week 6: at Virginia (L)
The Cavaliers have improved. And winning ACC games on the road is hard.
Week 7: Open
Week 8: at Virginia Tech (L)
Enter Sandman on a Thursday night? Exit Blacksburg with an L.
Week 9: vs. Louisville (L)
The offensive line will have a hard time keeping ACC sacks leader Ashton Gillotte away from Castellanos and the defense will have its hands full containing Tyler Shough and the Cardinals’ high-powered attack. That’s not a winning combination.
Week 10: Open
Week 11: vs. Syracuse (W)
Home cooking and a week off to prepare get the Eagles back on track.
Week 12: at SMU (L)
BC beat the Mustangs in the Fenway Bowl last December. But this time the rematch is on SMU’s home turf. With a healthy Preston Stone playing quarterback.
Week 13: vs. North Carolina (L)
Omarion Hampton led the ACC in rushing last season. The Eagles finished next-to-last in the league against the run. Not a good combination.
Week 14 vs. Pitt (W)
Too late to salvage bowl eligibility. But as George Constanza would say, you always want to go out on a high note.
2024 projection: 5-7 (2-6 ACC)
#ForBoston
Hafley did his successor O’Brien a favor by leaving behind a dynamic quarterback capable of winning games with his legs or arm. And O’Brien has done Castellanos a solid by surrounding him with some added firepower off the portal.
But while the Eagles project to put plenty of points on the scoreboard, they’re only going to go as far as their defense will take them. That was a problem last season when they allowed the 3rd-most points in the ACC.
The defensive struggles were embodied by star edge rusher Donovan Ezeiruaku, a 2nd-team all-conference selection in 2022 who saw his sack total drop from 7.5 to just 2 last season. As a team, the Eagles finished next-to-last in the ACC with only 13 sacks. They also had trouble stopping the run, yielding 188 yards per game.
Even if the defense steps up and Castellanos takes full advantage of the upgrade in talent around him, O’Brien will have a tough time exceeding his team’s preseason projection in his debut season because of a brutal schedule.
Nobody said the job was going to be easy.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
