Breaking down Jayden Daniels’ rookie props: Passing yards, rushing yards and more
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Jayden Daniels went off the board at No. 2 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft last week.
Daniels will have plenty of expectations as he steps into his new role as the franchise quarterback for the Washington Commanders this fall.
Multiple sports books have already posted season-long props for Daniels in 2024. Here’s a breakdown of what those markets look like just days after the 2024 draft:
Jayden Daniels passing yards prop
- Where to bet the over: FanDuel | Total: 3,075.5 | -112
- Where to bet the under: BetMGM | Total: 3,300.5 | -110
There have been 21 quarterbacks taken in the first round of the 5 drafts prior to 2024. Amongst that group, only 6 of the 21 have cleared 3,075 in their rookie campaigns: Justin Herbert, CJ Stroud, Mac Jones, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Trevor Lawrence. Interestingly enough, all 6 of those passers cleared the threshold easily, each getting to 3,600+ yards on the year.
Daniels is stepping into an uncertain situation. The Commanders have a new owner, general manager and coach. It’s clear they believe in Daniels’ talent, but how much support they can give him in Year 1 of this rebuild is significantly murkier. Even with Kliff Kingsbury stepping in as Washington’s offensive coordinator this season, this total feels too high to me.
PICK: Jayden Daniels under 3,300.5 passing yards
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Jayden Daniels passing touchdowns prop
- Where to bet the over: ESPN BET | Total: 18.5 | -125
- Where to bet the under: bet365 | Total: 19.5 | -130
Similar to the above example, there have been 6 rookie quarterbacks in the previous 5 drafts to throw for 20+ touchdowns in their debut seasons. It’s the same list as above, except Daniel Jones swaps in for Lawrence (who only threw 12 TD’s a rookie).
Daniels does have a decent young receiving corps, led by Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. Given Kingsbury’s offensive system, I’m a bit more open to the possibility of Daniels getting to the over on this prop than I am on his yardage prop. However, when Murray was a rookie in 2019 while playing for Kingsbury in Arizona, he threw just 20 touchdown passes — and that was to a WR room that included Larry Fitzgerald and a young Christian Kirk.
It’s tempting, but I’m inclined to fade Daniels on this prop as well.
PICK: Jayden Daniels under 19.5 touchdown passes
Jayden Daniels rushing yards prop
- Where to bet the over: bet365 | Total: 500.5 | -110
- Where to bet the under: Caesars | Total: 525.5 | -115
Using the same sample size of the last 5 drafts, there are only 3 quarterbacks (selected in the 1st round) who have rushed for more than 500 yards in their rookie seasons: Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Kyler Murray.
Daniels has the athleticism to hang with that group. He rushed for over 2,000 yards in 26 games while playing for LSU against SEC competition. He also has the size to run and take risks in the open field — something Murray did not have when he rushed for 546 yards as a rookie in Kingsbury’s offense. Daniels also has an additional game to work with, as the NFL has expanded its schedule to 17 games since Murray’s rookie year.
Daniels only has to rush for about 30 yards per game in order to hit this over, assuming he plays all 17 games. Even if he misses a couple, I think he has the speed and opportunity to soar over this total.
PICK: Jayden Daniels over 500.5 rushing yards
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
