This weekend’s slate features a primetime matchup between SEC hopefuls LSU and Florida.
The LSU vs. Florida rivalry has been very even historically — the Gators hold a 34-32-3 lead in the all-time series. However, LSU is a significant home favorite coming into this matchup.
Florida vs. LSU odds, predictions
Here’s a look at the updated odds for this game:
LSU fact sheet
- LSU was a bit underwhelming in its Week 2 win over Louisiana Tech, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. LSU lost starting center Braelin Moore to an ankle injury on the first play of the game and the offensive line seemingly never recovered.
- Moore is questionable for this game along with tight end Trey’Dez Green, although Moore presumably has a better chance of playing vs. the Gators than Green does. Green suffered a reported knee injury vs. LA Tech and was spotted on crutches after the game.
- Regardless of the injury, LSU has not run the ball well this season. The Tigers are 131st in rushing success rate entering Week 3, per Game on Paper.
- To compensate for the poor run game, LSU offensive coordinator Joe Sloan has leaned on the WR screen game so far this year. Garrett Nussmeier has already thrown 20 passes behind the line of scrimmage, per Pro Football Focus. That accounts for more than 25% of his attempts this year. He threw 84 such passes all last season (16% of his total attempts).
- Defensively, LSU has been excellent this season. The Tigers rank in the top-35 nationally in EPA-per-play against the run and the pass, according to Game on Paper.
- However, LSU’s win over Clemson has lost some of its luster already. Dabo Swinney’s bunch nearly lost to Troy as 31-point favorites on Saturday — they even trailed 16-0 at one point late in the first half. LSU’s defense received a ton of credit for how it limited Cade Klubnik and Co. in Week 1, but perhaps that level of praise was premature.
Florida fact sheet
- Florida is coming off of perhaps the most embarrassing defeat any team has suffered so far this season — an 18-16 defeat to South Florida that featured an epic fourth-quarter meltdown.
- It sure seems like Billy Napier’s job is on the line this season, which marks the second year in a row for him to be on the hot seat. For what it’s worth, Florida responded very well when faced with this reality a year ago. Florida went 3-1 against the spread and straight up when coming off a loss in 2024.
- In a short time period last season, quarterback DJ Lagway established himself as a gunslinger who frequently pushed the ball down the field. However, that hasn’t been the case so far this season. Lagway’s average depth of target (ADOT) has fallen all the way to 7.5 yards, per PFF. He also has just 2 big-time throws in 51 attempts. Those are rather pedestrian numbers.
- It should be noted that Lagway missed most of the offseason with various ailments and injuries, which has no doubt had an impact on his chemistry (or lack thereof) with Florida’s receiver room.
- Running back Jadan Baugh has been a bright spot. Game on Paper lists his individual success rate of over 60%. He averaged over 5 yards per carry in the loss to USF.
- Defensively, Florida has been solid. Particularly against the run. The Gators are top-10 in both EPA per rush allowed and rushing defense success rate so far this season.
- Defensive lineman Brendan Bett has issued an apology for spitting on a USF player late in the loss to the Bulls. Bett was ejected from the game and the penalty he received helped USF ultimately earn the win. It’s unclear if Bett will be suspended for the LSU game or not.
Florida vs. LSU best bets
Given Florida’s meltdown last week, it’s not too much of a shock to see the Tigers favored by more than a touchdown here. Maybe that loss will cause Florida’s roster to quit — something that wouldn’t be too shocking in an era with front-loaded NIL payments. But if the Gators aren’t ready to quit? This is just too many points. Even with Week 2’s results, SP+ has LSU rated 0.2 points ahead of Florida entering this week. This game is in Baton Rouge, so the Tigers are favored per SP+, but not by anything close to this 7.5-point spread. I’m holding my nose and buying low on Florida (and perhaps selling high on an LSU team that might not be as good as we thought given Clemson’s struggles in Week 2).
Pick: Florida +7.5 (-110 on BetMGM)
I’m going to fade LSU’s running game here. Caden Durham is a talented back, but LSU has not blocked well for him this season and its offensive line is pretty thin at this point. Durham’s rushing success rate is just 30% this season, per Game on Paper. Both Zavion Thomas and Harlem Berry have been more efficient this season (albeit in more limited opportunities) so I wonder if either of them start to eat into Durham’s snap share this week. If the problems on the O-Line persist, I’d expect LSU to increase its WR screen usage as well.
Pick: Caden Durham under 68.5 rushing yards (-114 on FanDuel)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
