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One of the most entertaining and frustrating things about understanding the College Football Playoff rankings is that, frankly, there’s not much to go on. It’s Year 3 of this whole party, and there’s a lot more that we the media don’t know than the stuff that we do know.
But one trend is that somebody outside of the Top 6 (as of the third rankings) will make playoff. In 2014, Ohio State was No. 8 on the third rankings. And the Buckeyes ended up crashing the party — and winning the title. In 2015, Oklahoma was No. 7 and Michigan State was No. 9 in the third ranking — but both made the final field of four semifinalists.
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So who crashes the party in 2016? Well, No. 5 Louisville and No. 6 Washington have clear chances. But we’re digging a little deeper. Which team (or teams) outside the top 6 could crash the party and likely end up at No. 4, opposite No. 1 Alabama in the Peach Bowl? Let’s break it down.
No. 7 Wisconsin (8-2, lost at Michigan by 7, at home to Ohio State in overtime by 7).
Wisconsin’s path is pretty simple: Saturday, they play at 3-7 Purdue, and then next week, it’s home against 7-3 Minnesota. If the Badgers win out, they’ll play in the Big Ten championship game against somebody: Ohio State, Penn State, or Michigan.
A win there over Michigan or OSU would carry more weight than Penn State. So, Penn State has lost two games, and the loser of Ohio State and Michigan has two losses. If the winner of that game then loses to Wisconsin, then all of the Big Ten teams have two losses, and as Big Ten champ, Wisconsin’s path is pretty clear.
Certainly, if Clemson, Louisville, or Washington misstepped, the path would be even clearer, but if the Badgers win out, they’ve got a fair chance to crash the party.
Likelihood: Pretty good, really.
No. 8 Penn State (8-2, lost at Pittsburgh by 3, at Michigan by 39).
Penn State’s situation is like Wisconsin’s, but a bit dicier. Because the Nittany Lions were throttled by Michigan, they really need the Wolverines to look bad — basically, to get crushed by Ohio State, maybe even to lose to Indiana this weekend. If OSU beats Michigan, and Penn State wins at 2-8 Rutgers and at home against 3-7 Michigan State, then Penn State will play in the Big Ten title game, likely against Wisconsin, with Nebraska next in line if the Badgers stumble.
The rub against PSU is that if OSU beats Michigan, it’s hard to leave a one-loss Ohio State team out of the CFP. So the field would be Alabama, Ohio State, an ACC team — likely Clemson — and then Penn State has to demonstrate its bonafides over a two-loss Michigan team that crushed them, and possibly one-loss Washington and Louisville teams.
Well, Michigan and Louisville (in this scenario) aren’t winning conference titles, so really PSU’s hopes would probably be pinned on Washington losing another game.
Likelihood: A decent shot, but needs some luck.
No. 9 Oklahoma (8-2, lost to Houston by 10 and Ohio State by 21).
Oklahoma is kind of the opposite of Penn State, in that they need Ohio State to go down and go down hard. If Michigan beats Ohio State, then Michigan goes to the Big Ten title game, and Ohio State has a second loss. If Michigan then mows down Wisconsin or Nebraska, the Wolverines are in alongside Alabama. But if Oklahoma can win at No. 14 West Virginia and at home against No. 11 Oklahoma State, they have the hot hand going into the Playoff.
They could argue that a hot two-loss Oklahoma team that won the Big 12 (remember, no conference title game there this season) has priority over a two-loss Ohio State team that lost both games down the stretch, or a one-loss Louisville team that won’t win the ACC.
In that scenario, the Final Four are Alabama, Michigan, probably Clemson, and again, if Washington gags up a game, or even just looks bad, Oklahoma has a fighting chance.
Unlike the other teams on this list, the biggest part of Oklahoma’s work is yet to be done. This means their odds are steepest, but they have the magical phrase in their corner of controlling their own destiny.
Likelihood: So you’re telling me there’s a chance? On the upside, the Sooners can start the process themselves.
No. 10 Colorado (8-2, lost at Michigan by 17, at USC by 4).
Colorado needs chaos. First, the Buffs have to knock off No. 22 Washington State and No. 12 Utah. Next, they have to hope Washington State beats Washington for the Huskies’ second loss. If Colorado wins the Pac-12, well, they’d have something to hope for.
They need the Big Ten to dissolve into a chaotic mess. They’d want every upset imaginable, because a two-loss Big Ten team likely would take precedence over a two-loss Colorado team that won the Pac-12.
But if Washington folds like a soft taco and the Big Ten becomes a complete mess, and the CFP committee decides a two-loss Colorado team takes precedence over a one-loss Louisville team, well, it could happen. But don’t count it likely.
Likelihood: A minor miracle.
No. 14 West Virginia (8-1, lost at Oklahoma State by 17).
While the Big 12 has no title game, West Virginia will be playing Baylor on Dec. 3. If the Mountaineers can upset Oklahoma this Saturday and Oklahoma State stumbles against Oklahoma or TCU, then West Virginia, much like Colorado above is hoping for chaos.
The Mountaineers’ argument would be that a one-loss Power 5 champ should trump one-loss non-champs and two-loss champs. Is that persuasive? I doubt it, but if you’re looking for a long shot, watch WVU this Saturday and take a flyer on them if they win. Stranger things have happened.
Likelihood: Call it a lottery ticket.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
