CBS Sports writer identifies 2 SEC teams as over/under ‘value bets’
By Andrew Olson
Published:
While there are some early betting lines for some of college football’s biggest games, the most talked about preseason lines are win totals, giving bettors the option to wager that a team will win more (over) or less (under) than the handicappers project.
Tom Fornelli of CBS Sports recently looked at Bovada’s over/under lines for the 2017 season and picked out five “value picks” for his Friday Five article. Fornelli sees potential bets on a pair of SEC teams, Georgia and Tennessee, as potentially rewarding for gamblers.
For Georgia, Fornelli likes the potential payout on a bet for the Bulldogs to win fewer than eight games:
Under 8 (+150): This is very much a value play and not an actual prediction that Georgia is going 7-5 this year. Of course, having said that, Georgia did go 7-5 during the regular season last year! When you remember that, and you look at the schedule this season, it’s not crazy to think it could happen again this year. The Bulldogs get Tennessee, Notre Dame, Auburn and Georgia Tech all on the road. There’s also Florida in Jacksonville. Those all present legitimate loss possibilities, and there’s always an upset possibility elsewhere that exists. With a +150 payoff, it’s a play worth making.
Tennessee, on the other hand, is an intriguing bet to go over its projected win total, in Fornelli’s opinion:
Over 7 (Even): The Vols fell apart in October last season after a 5-0 start. Some of this was because of the schedule, and more of it was because of the fact Tennessee players were dropping with injuries seemingly every other play. Still, even after that rough October, the Vols still won four of their last five games, but I feel like that loss to Vanderbilt to finish the regular season is the one people pay more attention to. Even with all those struggles, though, Tennessee finished the regular season at 8-4. And even if the Vols lost a lot of key players from last year’s team, there’s still a lot of talent on this roster, and while tough, the schedule isn’t egregiously difficult. Even if the payoff isn’t all that great, I just think the likelihood of Tennessee managing to get at least eight wins in 2017 is worth the risk here.
If a potential bettor liked the Volunteers’ chances of beating Georgia in Week 5, they might be intrigued to put money on both of these lines, as a UT win would make both bets much more likely to cash.
Fornelli’s other three value picks can be found in his article here.
Andrew writes about sports to fund his love of live music and collection of concert posters. He strongly endorses the Hall of Fame campaigns of Fred Taylor and Andruw Jones.
