College Football Playoff Club: Which newcomers will crack the field in 2025?

The College Football Playoff has seen 21 separate programs compete for a national title since its inception in 2014. A team that had not previously competed for a national title has appeared in each iteration of the Playoff except for the 2020 season.

For obvious reasons, last year saw the most newcomers admitted to the College Football Playoff Club, an exclusive group that you’ve probably never heard of, mostly because I just made it up. Arizona State, Boise State, Indiana, Penn State, SMU and Tennessee — half the teams that cracked the field in 2024 — were first-timers.

So, who will be admitted to the club this season (that is, assuming this isn’t the chalkiest year in the sport’s history)?

First off, let’s give you something to reference. Here are all the programs that have made the College Football Playoff so far, sorted by number of appearances:

Next, let’s turn to bet365 sportsbook. Here are the latest odds to reach the CFP among teams that have not yet joined the College Football Playoff Club, including programs with odds at or shorter than +500:

• Ole Miss: +190
• Miami: +220
• Texas A&M: +225
• Florida, Louisville: +350
• Auburn: +375
• Kansas State: +400
• Texas Tech: +425
• South Carolina, USC Trojans: +450
• Illinois, Utah: +500

Quick aside, those who are fans of any of the odds listed above can enter code SDS365 after sign-up to claim a no-sweat bet up to $1K or $150 in bonus bets when you start out with Bet365. Okay, now back to the article.

It’s very likely that at least one of the teams listed above will make the postseason. Probably more, given the fact we had 6 newcomers last year.

In the following sections I’ll go over some things to consider before making your picks for this year’s newest admissions. Then, I’ll give you my best bets to join the club.

The Big 12 & ACC

As shown above, the ACC and Big 12 in their current forms have each landed 3 teams in the College Football Playoff. The ACC boasts Florida State, SMU and Clemson while the Big 12 can claim Arizona State, Cincinnati and TCU (though at the time, Cincinnati was not a member of the Big 12.).

I’d put good money on the Big 12 being a conference to add a new member to the CFP Club this season. Why? For starters, the Big 12 has the most parity of any power conference in the country. There are multiple teams that have plenty of potential, solid QB play and positive roster turnover thanks to the transfer portal. It’s pretty much impossible to tell who is going to separate themselves in that league.

Arizona State, which was voted last in the conference this past season, in case that hasn’t been beaten over your head a few dozen times already, is the team to beat in the Big 12. Any of Kansas State, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Baylor, TCU or Utah can realistically be called contenders to win the crown, too. I like the odds that one team mentioned above can pull it off. You’ll see who below.

Now, on to the ACC.

Miami, Louisville, Pitt and Georgia Tech are the only realistic options I see on the table among newcomers, and it’s easier to feel better about some compared to others. Clemson is the frontrunner in the ACC, and SMU is set to be solid once again with Kevin Jennings and a prolific offense returning to Dallas. Florida State could bounce back this year, but the Seminoles are members of the club alongside the Mustangs and Tigers.

Miami is the best option in my opinion, but the schedule pits the Hurricanes against teams that will also be competing for a spot, which isn’t ideal. Florida, Notre Dame, Louisville, SMU, Florida State and Pitt all face the Hurricanes at some point. A loss to any 2 of those teams may spell trouble if Clemson has the year many are expecting. Still, Miami is intriguing — what if this is the year everything finally clicks?

Who will join from the G5 ranks?

Fellow Saturday Down South writer Derek Peterson wrote an excellent article breaking down this exact topic. I’d recommend you read that at some point before the start of the season if you’re interested in a deeper dive into the G5 chances.

Of course, the frontrunner for the Group of 5 is Boise State once again. The Broncos lose Ashton Jeanty to the NFL, but Maddux Madsen is back at QB, as are 4/5 of Jeanty’s elite offensive linemen that helped him finish the season as a Heisman candidate. Boise State is still going to be a strong rushing team, and there’s an opportunity lurking on Oct. 4 against Notre Dame that can’t hurt the Broncos’ résumé whether they win or lose, as long as they show up. Can they battle the Fighting Irish like they did Oregon at the start of last season?

And who else can contend for the postseason? Tulane, Navy, UNLV, Memphis and Toledo are good options, though it’s likely that the pick will come from either the AAC or Mountain West. The schedules are tougher, and to make the Playoff you have to prove you belong there. Going undefeated against sub-70 teams on the power index isn’t the best way to do that without some help. Sorry, Rockets.

Of course, the G5 route has the best odds to produce a new member of the CFP club. Non-members from power conferences have to beat out 20 member programs to join — Tulane, Navy, Memphis and the like have to beat just one.

The Best Bets

Here’s my College Football Playoff prediction, in no particular order: Penn State, Ohio State, Oregon, Illinois, Alabama, Texas, LSU, Georgia, Notre Dame, Clemson, Utah and Tulane.

As you can see, I have 3 teams joining the College Football Playoff Club at year’s end: Tulane, Utah and Illinois. Let’s quickly run through each, with an explanation for why I believe they’ll crack the field this year, in order of confidence:

Illinois (+500)

Manageable schedule. Veteran QB. The return of all 5 starting O-linemen. And finally, what should be an elite defense under Aaron Henry. What’s not to like here?

The Illini play just 2 preseason Top 25 teams this year: Ohio State at home and Indiana on the road. Ohio State is a game the Illini are going to circle, and I love their chances against the Hoosiers, who will undoubtedly take a step back after joining the CFP Club last year. There’s talent all over the place on defense, especially in the secondary and at linebacker with Gabe Jacas returning for his senior year.

This is one of my more confident futures picks this season.

Utah (+500)

Injuries derailed a 4-0 start to Utah’s season in 2024, and in turn seemingly everyone has quickly forgotten about Kyle Whittingham out in Salt Lake City. Madness, I say.

The Utes face their 3 toughest opponents — Arizona State, Texas Tech and Kansas State — at home. Utah also returns what should be one of the better offensive lines in the conference, one that will lead the way for Washington State transfer Wayshawn Parker. As a freshman, Parker rushed for just under 800 yards (5.3 yards per carry) with 4 touchdowns. He’s quick and possesses impressive vision for an underclassman — definitely a player to watch in the Big 12.

Then there’s QB Devon Dampier, a bit of a hit-or-miss prospect who starred at New Mexico under OC Jason Beck, who follows him to Salt Lake. Dampier put up over 1,000 yards rushing with 19 touchdowns while passing for 2,700 yards and 12 touchdowns… with 12 interceptions.

And that’s the ultimate question for Utah: Can Dampier protect the football well enough to let his pure athleticism shine behind a strong O-line? If so, with a defense that’s sure to be a strength, Utah could surprise some people in a competitive conference.

Tulane (+920, FanDuel)

Jake Retzlaff is a really good thrower of the football, and after transferring from BYU he’s one of the best G5 quarterbacks out there. By itself, that’s very important. It also fills what was perhaps the biggest question mark on the roster heading into the new season.

On top of that, the Green Wave defense should be better than last year with great opportunities on the schedule. The Green Wave get a win-win matchup against Ole Miss in the nonconference — a team coach Jon Sumrall is familiar with and one that replaces a lot from last year. I’m not saying they’ll win, but the Green Wave even looking good against the Rebels would be a win for their résumé.

Then there are the nonconference games (plural) I think they can (and will) win: at home against former Green Wave QB Darian Mensah and Duke, as well as the start of the season against Northwestern, which is also at home.

Finally, the Green Wave face Memphis on the road, a game that could very well decide the AAC Championship matchup when it’s all said and done.

Just missed the cut

I went back and forth on a few of the picks seen above. Florida is definitely a team that could make the Playoff this year, but ultimately that schedule is just too extreme. South Carolina is in a similar boat.

I have Georgia in the Playoff based almost exclusively on the fact that Kirby Smart is its head coach. The Bulldogs are young — especially in the trenches — with an unproven talent at QB, which for all but about 5 other programs in America would spell complete disaster against SEC competition. If there’s anyone on planet Earth who can (and has, multiple times) overcome those obstacles or similar, though, it’s Kirby Smart.

The Bulldogs are part of the reason why I almost put Georgia Tech in the playoff, too. The Yellow Jackets have an absolutely massive date against the Bulldogs in Atlanta to end the year.

Miami has a shot. Ole Miss, if the team can gel with its immense amount of talent, isn’t a squad to count out, either. Then there’s the winner of Kansas State vs. Iowa State in what could prove to be a consequential first game of the college football season on August 23, just 2 days away.

Man. Feels good to say that, huh?

Ethan Stone

Ethan Stone is a Tennessee graduate and loves all things college football and college basketball. Firm believer in fouling while up 3.