Happy Holidays, my fellow college football fans, and welcome to the College Football Playoff edition of the Saturday Down South Parlay of the Week. Allow me to be among the first to wish you and yours a very Merry Christmas, an absolutely delightful New Year, and hopefully a particularly profitable final couple of weeks of gambling in the year 2025. Between the college football postseason, the stretch run of the NFL season and an intriguing slate of NBA games on Christmas Day, we have plenty of opportunities to pile away a little extra cash before 2026 begins.
As my gift to you this holiday season, I’ve spent nearly 2 full weeks looking at these 4 College Football Playoff games to be played this weekend and come up with a tasty parlay that can turn 10 bucks into 100 if things play out as I expect they will.
As always, all betting lines provided by BetMGM.
Leg 1: Alabama money line (-105) over Oklahoma
Just a single year after all 4 home teams cruised to wins by an average of nearly 20 points per game in the opening round of the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, I’m kicking things off with the selection of a road underdog (Alabama) getting an outright win against a team (Oklahoma) that it already lost to (23-21) at home just 34 days ago.
So what is it that’s prompting me to roll with the Tide over the Sooners in this game that will be played in Norman, not Tuscaloosa? No, it’s not the feeling that Kalen DeBoer is a better coach than Brent Venables, or that I trust Ty Simpson and the Alabama offense more than I do John Mateer and the Sooners, or that Bama nearly doubled up Oklahoma in total yardage in their first meeting and shot themselves in the foot numerous times that afternoon. Nope, I’ve got just 3 words for you… Birmingham Athletic Club.
The only time in the long and successful history of the Alabama Crimson Tide football program that it has lost to the same opponent twice in the same season came way back in 1893, when the Tide dropped 2 games — including one by the score of 4-0 — over the course of 22 days to in-state “rival,” the Birmingham Athletic Club.
I have roughly 80 questions about these 2 games from the 1893 season, but because these games predate not only the internet but also both television and radio, I don’t think it’s likely I get many answers, but just as a general rule of thumb, if there’s a trend, no matter how obscure it may seem, that has lasted 132 years, I’m just going to blindly assume it’s gonna continue for as long as I’m alive. Maybe that’s a backwards way of thinking, but it’s also backwards to think that the University of Alabama was ever the “little brother” to the Birmingham Athletic Club.
Leg 2: Texas A&M money line (-170) over Miami FL
This is the game on the slate that I had the most difficult time making a pick for. In fact, it was so tough that I even debated foregoing picking a winner by taking a stab at an over/under selection instead, but 48.5 feels like a perfect line for this game, so I couldn’t even do that.
It feels like I’ve spent this entire season cautious regarding the Aggies, unsure if their record/ranking was actually as good as advertised or if there was some element of fool’s gold to it all. Meanwhile, only about 3 months ago I advised that my readers to bet the over on 11.5 on Miami’s season win total while also touting the Hurricanes as a national championship dark horse. Yet now as these 2 powerhouses play for an opportunity to play against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Cotton Bowl, I’ve flip-flopped, putting my belief in the Aggies and the 12th Man to put an abrupt end to Miami’s first appearance in the College Football Playoff.
Here’s why I ultimately settled on Mike Elko‘s Aggies in this one… both I and the sportsbooks believe this game is going to be close (A&M is favored by 3 and a half points), and because I know that Texas A&M can win a close game — as proven in its nail-biter victories over Notre Dame, Auburn, Arkansas and South Carolina — while Miami doesn’t inspire the same level of confidence in that regard. I’m taking A&M to win 26-23.
Leg 3: Tulane +17.5 (-110) over Ole Miss
As the legend Lee Corso would say, I like the Rebels in this one, but it’s gonna be closer than the experts think. And because I’m sure it’s the first question on your mind, yes, this is based at least partially on the fact that Ole Miss will enter this game without Lane Kiffin while Tulane comes in retaining head coach Jon Sumrall throughout the postseason before he shifts his attention to bringing the Florida Gators back to national prominence.
For the record, though, this isn’t the only reason I believe the Green Wave can hang tough and cover this steep line, despite the fact they were socked in the mouth by the Rebels earlier this year to the tune of a 45-10 defeat in Oxford.
Not only has Tulane earned more-impressive-than-you-think wins over the likes of Northwestern, Duke, Memphis and North Texas this year, but as it relates to this game specifically, it has made one crucial adjustment defensively that should allow it to hold up a lot better against Trinidad Chambliss (making just his second start of the season), Kewan Lacy and company this Saturday than it did back in September.
According to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, the Green Wave routinely sent the house after Chambliss during their 45-10 loss to the Rebels, and over and over again, the former Division II standout made them pay, connecting on explosive plays that went 33, 35, 47 and 53 yard completions. But over the last 5 games — 5 wins, mind you — Tulane’s defense has remade itself, blitzing far less often (29.9% in their first 8 games of the season vs. 16.6% over the last 5), putting more defensive backs than defensive linemen on the field, and playing roughly 12% more zone than they did to start the season. As a result, the Green Wave have allowed an average of just 18.0 points per game in those 5 wins.
Leg 4: Oregon -20.5 (-120) over James Madison
Objectively, one of the most interesting outcomes for this postseason would be James Madison upsetting Oregon in this weekend’s nightcap, then upsetting Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl on New Year’s Day, and then getting a shot against former head coach Curt Cignetti and the Indiana Hoosiers in the College Football Playoff semifinals. That’s some Disney movie stuff if I’ve ever heard it, and as much as ESPN (AKA Disney) would likely love to have big money, big market programs make it deep into the CFP, this narrative — although far-fetched — writes itself.
Subjectively, however, I don’t believe that the Dukes have enough to be able to duke it out with the Ducks for even a half at Autzen. That’s not to take anything away from James Madison. By any measure, this is a solid Group of 5 representative that should get the opportunity to take a swing at the big boys of college football, but Oregon is a particularly talented, nasty and motivated big boy that Dan Lanning is going to have ready to run through every single brick wall in Eugene on Saturday night.
Total: +939
