Conference Championship Parlay of the Week: Our 4 favorite plays of the weekend
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While roughly 90% of my picks in this weekly column throughout the year have been focused on the SEC, only 1 SEC game is on the slate in what appears to be a loaded Conference Championship Weekend schedule that features 6 of the, let’s say, 16 or so teams that have a legitimate chance of making the College Football Playoff field, which is set to be announced on Sunday afternoon.
In this weekend’s edition of Saturday Down South’s parlay of the week, I’ll be including 4 lines from those 3 games to make up my last pre-Playoff parlay. Coming off a win last weekend during Rivalry Week, I’m more confident than ever that after 3 long months of falling 1 pick short in countless parlay efforts, I’ve finally got a feel for this season.
As always, odds are provided by BetMGM.
Leg 1: Texas Tech money line (-550) over BYU
Just a few weeks back when I picked this very matchup, I went with the Cougars (+10) to keep it close against the Red Raiders in Lubbock, and it didn’t take long for Joey McGuire, Jacob Rodriguez and the entire Texas Tech roster to make me feel like a fool. Teach clearly outclassed BYU in a 29-7 romp that kick-started Rodriguez’s well-deserved Heisman Trophy campaign, and for the record, I know Rodriguez isn’t going to win the Heisman, but I do hope he gets an invite to New York City. Defensive players deserve more Heisman love! And hey, with another performance like he had against BYU back on November 8, that might be enough for J-Rod to bust into the group of finalists.
Anyway, I just don’t know if BYU has enough offensive firepower to hang around in this game. Last time around I speculated that BYU’s ground game would be steady enough to keep the Cougars close and keep the Texas Tech crowd out of the game. BYU rushed 27 times for 67 yards. Once again, I looked like a fool.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me, can’t get fooled again.
Leg 2: Georgia -2.5 (-110) over Alabama
Here’s what I wrote back in late September when Georgia and Alabama faced off in a highly-anticipated regular season matchup.
“I lost real-world money on this game last season, backing Georgia and feeling downright giddy after the first 15 minutes of action. Then I had to watch a football game turn into a horror movie, seeing the Bulldogs let a 30-7 halftime lead slip away against the Crimson Tide in Kalen DeBoer‘s first game in SEC play. But this game ain’t in Tuscaloosa, and I can’t see Kirby Smart letting his team drop a second straight game to Bama.”
Turns out in this instance, I could be fooled again. I backed Georgia and the Tide rolled right into Athens and earned a hard-fought 24-21 win over the favored Bulldogs. And now here I am, at almost the same exact number — Georgia was a 3-point favorite ahead of their regular season matchup — and I’m backing the Bulldogs again. This raises a logical follow-up question… why?
Well, since that late September showdown, Georgia is 8-0 and has won by an average margin of 15.8 points per game. The Bulldogs are rounding into shape while it seems like Alabama might be sputtering toward the finishing line. A loss at home against Oklahoma, narrow wins over South Carolina and Auburn. This just feels like a team that’s losing steam, and it’ll be interesting to see if Bama loses what the CFP selection committee will do with them.
Leg 3: Under 47.5 (-105) in Ohio State vs. Indiana
I know both of these offenses are capable of putting points on the board in a hurry, but these are the 2 best defenses we’ve seen all season long, and it’s not just the eye test that says so. Combined, the Buckeyes and Hoosiers defenses allow a combined 18 points per game. Nobody has cracked the 20s against Ohio State, and Indiana has allowed 3 touchdowns in a game just once this season. This feels like a 23-17, 20-16, 21-19 sort of game to me, in which case, we’ve got at least a touchdown to spare.
Leg 4: Ohio State money line (-200) over Indiana
I initially had Ohio State -4 as the pick here, giving us a little bit tastier of a payday for this Championship Weekend parlay. But as I thought about potential outcomes for this game, specifically as it relates to the final score, I kept coming back to one specific result… Ohio State 21, Indiana 19. Now surely, you could ask, “Well why not just take Indiana +4 then?” To that, I admittedly don’t have a great rebuttal, but this is what I will say:
We’re just a month and a half and a few games away from this going down as an historically great Ohio State team. A program that won the national title in 2024 and went on to win a second consecutive title the following year on the back of a defense that could go down as one of the greatest to ever step on the field. I don’t think I’m too far out on a limb to say that this is in play.
With that said, and I recognize that there are some biases at work here, I just can’t imagine that the Indiana Hoosiers are the team that puts an end to that unbeaten quest. Maybe this game is tight, maybe Indiana covers that 4-point margin, but I just can’t see the Buckeyes losing here.
Total: +561
