After spending most of the season listening to all of the “Leonard Fournette for Heisman” buzz from a safe distance, it is now Alabama RB Derrick Henry that appears to be in the driver’s seat for college football’s most prestigious individual award.
But just how much will the junior see the field on Saturday with the Crimson Tide host Charleston Southern, and will that have an impact on the Heisman race?
Three weeks ago, this type of dilemma probably wouldn’t have even crossed the minds of Alabama fans. After all, the Crimson Tide has a SEC championship and potential national championship run to worry about during the next few weeks.
And with Charleston Southern appearing on the schedule in Week 12 as a final reprieve from the rigors of a brutal schedule, it is right for coaches to look to give players rest when available.
But with just a couple more opportunities to impress voters guaranteed to Henry, how would a potential abbreviated day impact his chances to win the Heisman?
Let’s start by figuring out just how firm his lead is on the competition.
Henry’s case for the award has solidified during the last few weeks, beginning with a 210-yard, three-touchdown performance in a head-to-head meeting with Leonard Fournette on Nov. 7. He thrived while Fournette withered on the big stage.
He followed that performance with another 200-plus yard outing on the road at Mississippi State in Week 11, which has seemingly pushed him to a comfortable spot atop the list of leaders as Fournette again struggled in an LSU loss against Arkansas.
Henry now leads the FBS with 19 rushing touchdowns and is second to only Fournette in rushing yards. The LSU back holds a 1,474-to-1,458 lead in spite of playing one less game.
Outside of the SEC, Ohio State RB Ezekiel Elliott (+450) and Clemson QB Deshaun Watson (+700) offer the next best odds to win the award, according to Oddshark.com. The site lists Henry as -150 to win the award ahead of Fournette (+450).
Now, let’s examine the need to rest Henry.
At a school that has made itself known for rotating a couple of highly touted running backs throughout the season to keep everyone fresh, Henry has broken the mold a bit this season.
Alabama coach Nick Saban has left his big-bodied junior on the field for the brunt of the season’s work, with offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin dialing up a run play for Henry 240 times during the Crimson Tide’s first 10 games.
That ranks Henry as the most-used RB in the SEC, second-most used running back in the Power 5 behind Utah’s Devontae Booker and fourth-most used running back in the entire FBS.
With a trip to play Auburn in the Iron Bowl on the docket for Week 13, and a potential trip to the SEC Championship game to follow the next week, the Crimson Tide will need Henry as close to 100 percent as possible.
To further complicate matters, backup RB Kenyan Drake suffered a broken arm during last week’s win at Mississippi State, creating concerns about depth at the position while also limiting the amount of options that Saban and Kiffin have for divvying up reps behind Henry.
What can we expect in terms of work load?
This is the only game against a FCS opponent this season, so there is not an exact precedent for Henry’s workload against similar competition this season.
It is worth noting that two of Henry’s lowest outputs of the season came in Alabama’s two other games against non-Power 5 competition. He had 18 carries for 96 yards in Week 2 against Middle Tennessee and 13 carries for 52 yards against Louisiana-Monroe in Week 4.
That is a stark contrast to the 28 carries per game he has averaged in seven SEC games this season.
Charleston Southern is better than your typical FCS opponent, running up a 9-1 record with an option-based attack this season. That could allow the Buccaneers to linger long enough for Henry to see a similar workload to his other non-Power 5 games.
Will this matter to Heisman voters?
That’s really the million-dollar question.
If Henry has an output similar to what we might have seen from him against Middle Tennessee or Louisiana-Monroe while Fournette battles Ole Miss, Elliott takes on Michigan State and Watson plays against Wake Forest, will he be penalized in the eyes of the voters?
Probably not.
But it may subconsciously impact the race by leveling out some of the year-to-date statistics if either Fournette or Elliott has a big game, since all three are stacked up very closely in most rushing categories.
Understanding Saban, we know that he probably hasn’t lost one millisecond of sleep worrying about this, so fans should probably just relax and watch it play out as well.
Nick Cole is a former print journalist with several years of experience covering the SEC. Born and raised in SEC country, he has taken in the game-day experience at all 14 stadiums.
