DFS Picks of the Week: Our top Underdog plays for college and NFL, Sept. 20-21
By Adam Spencer
Published:
DFS season is on a roll as the college football world prepares for Week 4 and the NFL prepares for Week 3 of the regular season. There aren’t as many marquee games on the slate this weekend, but there’s still plenty of money to be made!
Auburn-Oklahoma, Mizzou-South Carolina, Florida-Miami and other big-time games headline the CFB slate, while Rams-Eagles and Lions-Ravens are the top-tier NFL matchups.
Each week, our DFS experts — Andrew Olson and Adam Spencer — share their 3 top college football picks and their 2 favorite NFL plays. Keep reading below to find out who they like this weekend.
But first…
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Our Week 4 CFB Picks
Here’s who we like for college football action this weekend:
Andrew Olson
Jackson Arnold, Auburn QB: Lower than 175.5 pass yards
The Auburn passing attack is bound to get better, but probably not this week. Brent Venables knows his former QB’s flaws as well as anyone, and now he’s in charge of scheming to make Arnold’s night miserable. I expect the Oklahoma defense to make it a rough return to Norman.
Jake Retzlaff, Tulane QB: Higher than 177.5 pass yards
Retzlaff got off to a bit of a slow start, which was understandable with his summer transfer. In Week 3, we saw signs he’s settling in with the Green Wave. Will the Ole Miss defense get up for a Group of 5 opponent after back-to-back 1-score SEC games? I have my doubts.
Jadan Baugh, Florida RB: Higher than 14.5 receiving yards
Baugh had his coming out party as a receiver against LSU with 7 catches for 59 yards. The broadcast mentioned Florida had been wanting to get him more involved in the passing game this season. Baugh’s pass-catching ability is surely on Miami’s radar after the LSU game, but the Hurricanes aren’t going to be too focused on covering a running back. Considering DJ Lagway’s struggles, he may turn to Baugh as a high-percentage option out of the backfield.
Adam Spencer
Taylen Green, Arkansas QB: Higher than 317.5 pass+rush yards
Look for lots of points to be scored when Arkansas visits Memphis this weekend. And when the Razorbacks score points, Taylen Green usually has something to do with it. I think he could reach 318 yards through the air alone, so I’ll take the combo pass+rush yards with a smile on my face.
Ahmad Hardy, Mizzou RB: Higher than 90.5 rush yards
Hardy has been everything Mizzou could have hoped for after Eli Drinkwitz got him from Louisiana-Monroe out of the portal this offseason. The Tigers are going to try to make things miserable for South Carolina this weekend. If Mizzou can get a lead against the Gamecocks and their pitiful offense, look for Kirby Moore to dial up Hardy’s number often.
Sawyer Robertson, Baylor QB: Higher than 308.5 pass yards
Baylor throws the ball a ton against Power 4 competition. This is just a blind “higher” pick for me until a defense shows it can stop him. He threw for 440 yards against SMU and 419 yards against Auburn. This number seems too low for Robertson’s game against Arizona State this weekend.
Our Week 3 NFL Picks
And here’s who we’re riding with on Sunday in the NFL:
Andrew Olson
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs QB: Higher than 240.5 pass yards
Last week we faded Mahomes, this week we back him. They’re off to a rough start, but this is still the Kansas City Chiefs we’re talking about. This Giants defense just got destroyed by the Dallas Cowboys. This has get-right game written all over it.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons TE: Higher than 3.5 receptions
Many of us have been hurt by Pitts in fantasy over the years, but usage and the matchup both suggest back him in Week 3. In 2 games, Michael Penix Jr. has targeted Pitts 13 times for 96 yards on 11 catches. The Panthers have given up 11 catches to tight ends in their first 2 games.
Adam Spencer
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons RB: Higher than 81.5 rush yards
That’s right, folks. Two Atlanta Falcons picks this week! (What could possibly go wrong?) The Panthers have been atrocious defensively this year. Look for the Falcons to get a big lead early and then send a steady diet of Bijan Robinson at the Carolina defense in the second half.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks WR: Higher 74.5 receiving yards
JSN is an elite wide receiver. It’s not too early to say that. The Saints have shown some fight this year, but they are not a good team. JSN should be able to go for 75+ yards in front of a raucous home crowd.
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Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
