In Week 11 of the college football season, we have a top-25 showdown in Columbia, and we have multiple SEC programs making their return to the field for the first time since dismissing an underperforming head coach. As is the case every week, all eyes will be on the Southeastern Conference.
Let’s take a look at 3 of the top games on the slate and search for a few DFS angles to attack.
Week 11 DFS predictions
Below are 3 DFS picks from the Week 11 college football slate that can all be found on Underdog Fantasy. If you’re new to Underdog, grab Saturday Down South‘s exclusive Underdog Fantasy promo code SDS that will help you earn $100 in bonus credits when you enter your first $5 contest!
Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy longest rush higher than 20.5 yards vs. Texas A&M
Mizzou is going to try and run the ball to make life easier on quarterback Matt Zollers in his first start. Of course, Texas A&M knows this and will likely be selling out to stop the run on early downs to create late-down opportunities to rush the passer. That being said, this Aggie defense has been susceptible to explosive runs all season long.
The Aggies have only given up 100 rushing yards in a game 3 times so far. Those numbers require a bit of context, though. Auburn, Florida, and LSU were all held under 100 yards against A&M, but none of them topped 30 ground carries. Five teams have run at least 30 times against the Aggies this year; those 5 teams have gained an average of 152.4 yards per game with a 19% explosive run rate.
UTSA had 3 runs of at least 20 yards. Utah State popped a 30-yard run. Notre Dame popped a 24-yard run. Mississippi State broke a 22-yard run. And Arkansas had 6 runs that gained at least 20 yards. Ahmad Hardy, still the SEC’s leading rusher despite being held under 100 yards in 3 straight games, is one of the most difficult running backs in the country to bring down. Given an opening or 2, Hardy should break loose. He has 8 runs this season that have gained at least 20 yards. With plenty of carries in the game plan, I like his chances of adding to that total.
Auburn WR Eric Singleton Jr. higher than 36.5 receiving yards at Vanderbilt
Interim head coach DJ Durkin said earlier in the week Ashton Daniels will draw the start for Auburn on Saturday against Vanderbilt. And that means Auburn’s receivers are worth targeting on the DFS market.
Vanderbilt’s defense hasn’t been reliable this season, but the ‘Dores have been able to work around that because of the style of play. The exposure is low. Still, Vandy ranks 71st in defensive success rate, per Game on Paper. They’re in the eighth percentile nationally (horrific) for explosive pass rate allowed and the fourth percentile for passing EPA per play. Third downs (typically passing downs) have been an issue all year. Nearly 30% of all pass attempts against this secondary have gained 10 yards.
Daniels struggled last week against Kentucky. As such, none of Auburn’s receivers had respectable days. Eric Singleton Jr. had his worst outing of the season — 2 catches for 12 yards. I expect a better performance from the pass game when Daniels makes his second start. With Hugh Freeze out the door, maybe there’s new life in the Auburn offense. This feels like a buy-low spot for Singleton, who still leads the team in receptions this year.
Alabama QB Ty Simpson lower than 272.5 passing yards vs. LSU
Alabama’s leader at quarterback hasn’t thrown for more than 260 yards in a game since Oct. 4. He had 340 in the win over Vanderbilt that day. He had 276 the week prior against Georgia, and 382 against Wisconsin 2 weeks before that. That 3-game stretch is the only time all season Simpson has cleared 272.5 yards in a game. And the LSU defense has only given up that kind of yardage through the air twice this season.
The defense was certainly an issue at home against Texas A&M a few weeks ago. Off a bye, and with a reconfigured coaching staff, the expectation is that LSU will show some grit. LSU’s defense has played poorly in consecutive games. Will it do so in a third straight? I’m not so sure.
And if the Tigers get any sort of help from their offense — which will be under the direction of a new play-caller — we could be looking at one of the better performances of the season from LSU. Of course, the Crimson Tide could also turn a 2-game skid into a 3-game skid by handling a reeling LSU squad. In that case, Simpson likely wouldn’t be throwing the ball around at all in the latter stages of the game.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
