Another week in the SEC brings another slate of top-notch games between ranked opponents.
Let’s take a look at 3 of the top games on the slate and search for a few DFS angles to attack.
Week 12 DFS predictions
Below are 3 DFS picks from the Week 12 college football slate that can all be found on Underdog Fantasy. If you’re new to Underdog, grab Saturday Down South‘s exclusive Underdog Fantasy promo code SDS that will help you earn $100 in bonus credits when you enter your first $5 contest!
South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers longest run higher than 15.5 yards at Texas A&M
Because of South Carolina’s inability to protect its quarterback on a down-to-down basis, avoid the raw rushing total for LaNorris Sellers. He could finish with 60 rushing yards; he is South Carolina’s most-used rusher this season with 117 attempts. But he could also finish with negative yardage because of the sack numbers, something that has happened 4 times in his last 7 games.
But Texas A&M is weak against the run, and I don’t think the market has caught up to that fact yet. The Aggies rank 103rd nationally in EPA per run faced. We played Ahmad Hardy’s “longest run” pick last week and he cashed it on Missouri’s first drive of the game. Explosives are there to be had against this Texas A&M defense.
And for Sellers on Saturday, the volume will certainly be there. He has at least 14 rushing attempts and at least 1 explosive run in each of his last 5 games. If South Carolina is chasing the game, the ball will be exclusively in Sellers’s hands. If South Carolina finds itself in a fight, some of the QB-designed stuff is still in play. Either way, Sellers is a safe bet to produce at least 1 explosive run against A&M.
Alabama WR Ryan Williams higher than 50.5 receiving yards vs. Oklahoma
Oklahoma’s secondary is gettable. Slot receivers in particular have been a real problem for Oklahoma throughout the year. Alabama likes to move its top receivers all over the formation, meaning guys like Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard can line up in the slot on any given snap. With Williams’ spurtability, I trust offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb to have a plan that will put OU’s primary weakness at odds with Williams’s speed.
Tennessee’s primary slot receiver (Braylon Staley) had a 75-yard day against the Sooners. Ole Miss slot receiver Cayden Lee had 60 yards on 3 catches. Auburn slot receiver Eric Singleton Jr. had 60 yards on 9 catches. And South Carolina’s Jayden Sellers had 57 yards on 6 catches after entering the contest with no targets through the first 7 weeks of the season.
Williams has had a disappointing season to this point, it’s true. His touchdown catch against LSU was just his fourth of the year. Though he found the end zone, he finished with 33 yards, marking the fourth time in 8 games he has been held under 50 yards.
But Williams has also followed up duds with big games all year. After a 43-yard showing against Georgia, Williams caught 6 balls for 98 yards. After an 0-for day against Missouri, Williams made 5 catches for 87 yards.
Georgia WR Zach Branch higher than 62.5 receiving yards vs. Texas
Do I like going high on every single pick? Not particularly. And Georgia receiver Zach Branch is the obvious name atop the scouting report for the Bulldogs. But his target share is ridiculous and Branch has all the tools to make life unenjoyable for the Texas secondary.
The Longhorns play off, and quick-hitters have been burning them for weeks. Kentucky threw for 258 yards while completing 78% of its passes. Mississippi State threw for 382 yards while completing 63% of its passes. Vanderbilt threw for 365 yards with a 71% completion rate. You’d think with the way Texas puts pressure on opposing quarterbacks, the coverage would be better. It’s not. Texas ranks 83rd nationally in passing success rate allowed.
Branch has a ridiculous target share this year. He has 63 targets. The next-closest Bulldog has 29 targets. Georgia gets it to Branch immediately and lets him run; his average depth of target this season is 3.3 yards and he produces 10.2 yards per catch. Of the 103 FBS players this season with at least 60 targets, only 2 others have an ADOT under 5 yards and both of them are under 10 yards a catch.
Branch has at least 8 catches in each of his last 4 games. If that trend continues, he should clear his receiving number here with some room to spare.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
