It’s Rivalry Week across college football. Another name for Week 14? How about “Chaos Week?” Particularly in the SEC, there are several matchups in the final week of the regular season that could send the College Football Playoff bracket into chaos.
Let’s take a look at 3 of those and search for a few DFS angles to attack.
Week 14 DFS predictions
Below are 3 DFS picks from the Week 14 college football slate that can all be found across some of the best apps for daily fantasy sports on the market. New users can hit the banner below each player pick and our SDS sign-up bonus will be applied to your account.
Texas A&M WR Mario Craver higher than 56.5 receiving yards at Texas
The Mississippi State transfer exploded onto the scene this season with 8 catches for 122 yards in his first game with the Aggies. He followed that up with 114 yards against Utah State and then a 7-catch, 207-yard performance against Notre Dame on the road. Mario Craver hasn’t reached 100 yards in a game since.
He might do it against this Texas secondary in what is the biggest game of the Texas A&M season. Craver dressed for the Samford game, but he didn’t play, ultimately missing time because of a lower-body injury he suffered against Mizzou on Nov. 8 that limited him to 1 catch against South Carolina on Nov. 15. This week, he wasn’t listed on the injury report for Texas A&M at all, so he should presumably be ready to roll.
The Texas defense is a favorable matchup for fleet-footed receivers. Texas, for its reputation on defense, has been bad against the throw game all year. The Longhorns rank 84th nationally in passing success rate allowed and give up 10 yards on 27% of all attempts they face.
With KC Concepcion likely to draw a ton of attention from the Texas secondary, and Longhorn linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. questionable to play with an injury of his own, I like some of the potential matchups Craver can draw in this one. A big play or 2 from Craver is all we need.
Via Underdog Fantasy
Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia longest rush more than 18.5 yards at Tennessee
Vanderbilt has never won 10 games in a season before. That’s on the table for the Commodores in this game. So is (potentially) the College Football Playoff. Expect quarterback Diego Pavia to have even more fire than usual when the Commodores play rival Tennessee.
The Vols have decent rush numbers on defense this season. They give up 3.5 yards per carry (27th nationally) and face more volume (37.5 attempts per game) than the average defense. They stuff a fair amount of runs, but they are also susceptible to chunks on the ground, particularly from mobile quarterbacks.
Gunner Stockton had 38 rushing yards with a long of 14 in the Georgia win earlier this season. Taylen Green had 63 rushing yards with a long of 22 for Arkansas against the UT defense. Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer had runs of 22 and 21 yards to help propel the Sooners to a win in Knoxville. Even DJ Lagway broke a big gain last week in The Swamp, rushing for 38 yards on a carry in the second quarter.
The ball will be in Pavia’s hands a ton regardless of game flow on Saturday. He is Vandy’s leading rusher this season with 132 carries, and he has at least 12 rushing attempts in 5 of his last 6 games. Against Kentucky last week, Pavia broke a 21-yard run in the third quarter. That marked 3 straight games with a 20-yard gain on the ground for Pavia. He has a 20-yard gain on the ground in 5 of his last 6 games dating back to the meeting with Alabama. Mizzou has been the only defense to hold him in check over the back half of the season. I don’t expect Tennessee to join the Tigers in that regard.
Via Dabble
Alabama RB Jam Miller lower than 33.5 rushing yards at Auburn
The game script here could really shorten the game. Auburn can sit on the ball and drain the clock on offense, an approach that probably looks plenty intriguing with Ty Simpson on the other sideline. Volume just might not be there for Jam Miller, even with Alabama down one of its rotational backs for the game.
Beyond that, Auburn has one of the nation’s best run defenses and Alabama has one of the least efficient rushing attacks you’ll find at the major level. Don’t be confused by last week’s concerted ground-and-pound effort against Northern Illinois. In the 4 games prior, Miller averaged 20.3 yards on 9.8 carries a game. He has been largely ineffective against FBS defenses since running for 136 yards against Vandy on Oct. 4. AK Dear has been the best back on the team when he plays. Daniel Hill was the best back on the field when Alabama hosted Oklahoma.
Auburn has only given up 7 runs all season that gained 20 yards. The Tigers are second nationally in rushing success rate allowed, trailing only Oklahoma. Per Game on Paper, the Tigers rank in the 97th percentile or better in line yards allowed per carry, opportunity rate, and stuff rate. They don’t get moved off the line of scrimmage, they swallow lanes when an offense does manage to create some, and they stuff a ton of runs for no gain.
Georgia’s top back gained 24 yards against Auburn. Ahmad Hardy, the best back in the country, was limited to 58 yards on 24 carries. Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green had 14 yards on 7 carries. Kentucky’s best back gained 53 yards on 21 carries. Vandy’s top back gained 39 yards on 10 carries. Miller could be in for another rough day.
Via Chalkboard
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
