There are only 3 games taking place across college football in Week 9 that feature ranked teams on both sidelines. All 3 of those games involve SEC teams. Naturally, another week means another sampling of big-time matchups down south.
Let’s take a look at each of the 3 games and search for a few DFS angles to attack.
Week 9 DFS predictions
Below are 3 DFS picks from the Week 9 college football slate that can all be found on Underdog Fantasy. If you’re new to Underdog, grab Saturday Down South‘s exclusive Underdog Fantasy promo code SDS that will help you earn $100 in bonus credits when you enter your first $5 contest!
Oklahoma QB John Mateer higher than 39.5 rushing yards vs. Ole Miss
Oklahoma running back Tory Blaylock is coming off a season-best 101-yard rushing effort, but consistency has really been lacking in the traditional OU run game. Blaylock has alternated good games with poor games as his carries have fluctuated. The 19 attempts he had against South Carolina were a season-high as well.
That effort coincided with an 8-carry, 14-yard rushing performance from quarterback John Mateer. Prior to his hand injury, Mateer was carrying the load for the OU offense both as a passer and as a runner. He had 74 rushing yards and 2 scores against Michigan earlier this year, then followed that up with a 63-yard day against Temple on the road. A similar effort is possible against what is a really poor Ole Miss run defense.
Mobile quarterbacks have torched the Ole Miss defense week in and week out. Gunner Stockton had 59 yards for Georgia last week, including 22 on a single carry. Washington State’s Zevi Eckhaus also had a 22-yard run against Ole Miss. Kentucky quarterbacks Zach Calzada and Cutter Boley both had explosive runs against the Rebels. Tulane’s Jake Retzlaff had 51 total rushing yards and a 30-yard carry against Ole Miss. And Taylen Green topped the century mark.
The Ole Miss pass rush doesn’t get home with much frequency. The run defense gives up 4.7 yards per carry on average. Quarterbacks all year have broken big runs. Even if designed runs are still limited for Mateer as he works back to 100%, there should still be a few opportunities to break a big gainer.
Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy higher than 69.5 rushing yards vs. Vanderbilt
Unlike the previous defense covered in this column, Vanderbilt has actually shown an ability to stop the run this season. The Commodores are 27th nationally in run defense, allowing just 3.4 yards per carry this season. The Dores are 45th in allowed rushing success rate, per Game on Paper, and have generally been able to stuff runs at the line of scrimmage.
There is some necessary context, though. The ‘Dores have essentially faced only 1 quality offense this season — Alabama — and the Crimson Tide’s top tailback had his way with Vandy early in the game. Jam Miller ran for 136 yards and a score on 22 carries against Vandy on Oct. 4. He forced 2 missed tackles, generated 57 yards after contact, and broke 5 runs of at least 10 yards. Miller was also the guy who put the game away late.
I’d argue Mizzou running back Ahmad Hardy is a better pure tailback than Miller. And I think Missouri is going to approach this game with an emphasis on keeping its quarterback in rhythm. Beau Pribula had a season-high 47 drop-backs last week, a season-high 3 turnover-worthy plays, and 2 interceptions for the second-consecutive week. Missouri’s offense just looked bottled up.
After 5-straight games with more than 100 rushing yards to open the season, Hardy has been under 60 in each of his last 2 games. He averaged less than 3 yards per carry against Auburn, though he still ran 24 times. That Tigers’ front is a good one, and I don’t believe Vandy’s can match the quality, even in spite of what the metrics say. Missouri can’t keep turning the ball over, and that means Pribula needs to be able to operate from more advantageous downs and distances. Establishing the run will be a big part of the game plan, so I like Hardy to have the kind of day that reasserts his status as the SEC’s best back.
LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier longest completion lower than 38.5 yards vs. Texas A&M
LSU has just 6 completions in the pass game all season that gained at least 30 yards. With minimal ability to run the ball and an offensive line that struggles to protect, quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has gotten the ball out quicker this year compared to last year and he’s doing so without looking downfield as much. His average depth of target is down almost 2 full yards year over year, and the rate with which he throws more than 20 yards downfield has dropped by 4 percentage points.
Texas A&M has given up some chunk gains through the air this season, but the corners haven’t been tagged for a ton of YAC yardage.
Given A&M’s ability to pressure the quarterback without sending extra bodies, LSU is going to have to counter with some quicker route patterns. A&M was able to pressure Blake Shapen on nearly half of his drop-backs despite a 20% blitz rate. A&M got to DJ Lagway on 31% of his drop-backs but blitzed 21% of the time. The Aggies came after Taylen Green much more than they had in previous weeks, and they applied a similar amount of pressure.
I don’t like LSU’s ability to hold up in pass protection regardless of whether A&M sends extra numbers or not. That just doesn’t lend itself to a ton of downfield plays.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
