Does Kirby Smart just own Steve Sarkisian? We’re 60 minutes from that being undeniable
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The sample size is small, but telling.
Last year, Kirby Smart led Georgia to 2 wins against a Texas team who played Ohio State down to the wire in the College Football Playoff semifinals. It didn’t matter that UGA won both games away from home, nor did it matter that Carson Beck got knocked out on a Hail Mary attempt just before halftime of the rematch in the SEC Championship Game. Both times, Smart showed up and beat Texas.
The question heading into Saturday night’s showdown between Texas and Georgia in Athens is obvious — does Smart just own Steve Sarkisian?
You could point to the 2-0 record and say that’s too small of a sample size and that we’re going to need more data before we can make such a declaration. You know, like the declaration that Alabama owns Smart, and a 2-0 record for Kalen DeBoer against Georgia is a sign that it’s not just a Nick Saban thing.
Both coaches would tell you that this year’s team is completely different than last year’s, and previous history is irrelevant. That’s fine. Three wins against Sarkisian in the first 2 years of Texas being in the SEC would be quite the feather in Smart’s cap.
Nobody would’ve made that argument upon Texas’s arrival. After all, Texas infamously had the “we’re baaaaaaaaack” declaration from Sam Ehlinger after the 2018 Sugar Bowl victory against Georgia. That wasn’t under Sarkisian, but he was Alabama’s offensive coordinator in 2020 when the Tide handed Smart 1 of his 7 losses in that matchup.
But those first 2 Georgia-Texas games in the SEC were telling
As Gunner Stockton rallied Georgia back to an overtime victory in the SEC Championship Game last year, Texas was held to less than 100 rushing yards for the 5th time in just 52 games under Sarkisian. Another one of those games came earlier in the year against Georgia, when the Dawgs delivered a historically dominant defensive showing in Austin. In those 2 games, Texas averaged 30 rushing yards and 1.1 yards per carry without a single rushing score. Mind you, that was with a decorated offensive line.
This year, Texas hasn’t been anywhere near as steady as that group. Whether that’s the byproduct of Tre Wisner and CJ Baxter being banged up or just what happens when an offensive line returns 1 starter, well, that’s in the eye of the beholder. Since stepping off the field in Georgia’s comeback win against Texas in the SEC Championship Game, the Longhorns have had 6 more games without hitting 100 rushing yards, including 3 in their 4 true road games this season.
Speaking of those road issues, Texas has 38 points in the first 3 quarters of those 4 games. Hence, why the Horns needed overtime to survive at Kentucky and at Mississippi State. Against a Georgia team that’s also been a bit of a slow starter — UGA hasn’t led at halftime 5 of 7 SEC games — perhaps that won’t surface. Alternatively, Georgia could just pick up where it left off when it went into Mississippi State and bludgeoned the Bulldogs in Davis-Wade Stadium in the exact way that Texas couldn’t. At least not until the 4th quarter.
The good news for Texas is that Trevor Etienne is off to the NFL after he had a combined 5 rushing touchdowns in those victories last year. The bad news for Texas is that Georgia just had its best rushing performance against an SEC foe since 2020, and stopping the likes of Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens could prove to be another daunting task.
Perhaps of equal significance, Stockton is a much better player than the guy who took the field in the second half of the SEC title game matchup last year. He’s not throwing inexplicable interceptions like he did in the 4th quarter of that game, nor is he being reckless as a runner. Stockton looks like a guy who has his legs under him with 10 starts now under his belt. He’s more decisive both as a passer and as a runner, which is why he’s first among SEC quarterbacks with 7 rushing scores and he’s No. 1 among SEC quarterbacks with a 75.8% adjusted completion percentage when under pressure. Hence, why 11 of his 15 touchdown passes have come against the blitz (Arch Manning also has 11 touchdowns against the blitz and has been better in those spots than some realize).
Add it all up and you’ll see a relatively clear path to a Georgia victory. We haven’t even gotten to the part where I mention that Alabama’s win in Sanford Stadium earlier this year marked Georgia’s first loss at home in a night game since 2009. Saturday against Texas will be under the bright lights, and for Sarkisian, his struggles against Georgia could be under a microscope if it’s another Texas loss in which the Longhorns are a walking turnover (UGA forced 4 takeaways in the first matchup and 3 in the second).
It’ll be magnified for a 2-loss Texas team who has been desperately trying to avoid that dreaded 3rd loss, which doomed every at-large team’s Playoff chances last year. It remains to be seen if that’ll be the case for Texas, who could still have a matchup against a potential 11-0 Texas A&M squad to close the regular season.
But if it’s another game in which Sarkisian’s offense looks lost against the Smart defense, questions will be asked. Or rather, a question will be answered.
Smart might just own Sarkisian.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
