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Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues with Duke. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 17-team ACC.
Previously: Boston College | Cal | Clemson
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It’s not that Mike Elko left.
Everyone in college football, even those at Duke, knew he was a hot coaching commodity and wouldn’t stay long.
It’s the way Elko left that created so many hard feelings. While also throwing the positive strides he made during his 2 seasons with the Blue Devils into jeopardy.
Elko’s departure for Texas A&M in the dead of night less than 2 days after telling athletic director Nina King that he was staying made the task of finding his replacement all the more pivotal.
Rather than looking for someone to blow things up and start over with a radically different system, this hire called for someone capable of maintaining the culture that already existed.
Only time will tell if Manny Diaz turns out to be the “exceptional” candidate King promised to deliver.
But with a defensive background similar to Elko’s and a solid resume that includes a winning record as a head coach and ACC experience, all the elements are there for a smooth and successful transition.
Or at the very least, smoother than the one his predecessor inherited from Jimbo Fisher in College Station.
“He embodies Duke values of trust, respect, inclusiveness and excellence,” King said at Diaz’s introductory press conference in December. “He’s the perfect fit for Duke.”
Diaz didn’t have much time to ease into the job. By the time he arrived, 7 starters from the Blue Devils’ 7-win Birmingham Bowl-winning team had already entered the transfer portal.
Although he lost a few, most notably top rusher Jordan Waters to NC State and run-stopping defensive lineman Aenas Peebles to Virginia Tech, the former Miami coach and Penn State defensive coordinator retained at least a portion of Duke’s returning core.
He then filled in the gaps with a transfer class highlighted by the arrival of Maalik Murphy from Texas, a former 4-star recruit rated as one of the top available quarterbacks on the free-agent market.
Diaz needs all the talent he can get in his debut season. After opening with a soft nonconference schedule, his team will have to negotiate a brutal league slate that gets progressively more difficult.
At least he’s starting with a solid foundation on which to build.
Transfer tracker
The Blue Devils did suffer some significant portal losses. In addition to Waters and Peebles, quarterback Riley Leonard and edge rusher RJ Oben went to Notre Dame, and linebacker Dorian Mausi Jr. landed at Auburn.
But Diaz filled most of the gaps by signing 19 transfers. Other than Murphy from Texas, wide receiver Javon Harvey from Old Dominion and offensive linemen Bruno Fina from UCLA and James Pogoric from Stanford, the bulk of Duke’s new additions are older players from smaller schools looking to finish out their careers against power conference competition.
It’s a group that includes experienced offensive linemen from Princeton (6-5, 305 Jack Purcell), Cornell (6-6, 328 Micah Sahakian), Holy Cross (6-3, 311 Eric Schon), Lafayette (6-4, 306 Mike Barr) and Elon (6-3, 285 Caleb Krings).
Murphy’s law
Even though incumbent starter Grayson Loftis played well when pressed into service because of injury last season, it would be an upset of epic proportions if Murphy doesn’t take the first snap when the Blue Devils line up against Elon on opening night.
His addition into the mix begs an obvious question: How did Diaz manage to beat out all those brand name programs for a former 4-star quarterback talented enough to push the likes of Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning for playing time at Texas?
The answer is a connection Diaz described as “pretty bizarre.” Murphy and his new coach have a relationship that started when the young quarterback was a 6th grader attending a summer camp at Miami, where Diaz was a Hurricanes assistant.
“When he went into the portal, that’s kind of how I made that contact with him. That’s how it all came about,” Diaz said. “You always say in this profession ‘you never know.’
“Duke should always attract great quarterbacks. That has been the secret to winning here in the past. Getting on the job, the first thing I wanted to do was install an offense that would attract quarterbacks by letting guys throw for lots of yards and touchdowns.”
Murphy’s familiarity with Diaz was only one factor that led to his decision to transfer to Duke. Even more important was the opportunity to play right away after being the third wheel in a crowded quarterback room at Texas.
“At the end of the day, there’s a great opportunity here,” said Murphy, who started 2 games – both wins – while throwing for 477 yards and 3 touchdowns for the Longhorns last year. “I couldn’t ask for a better chance at making myself better and being an asset to this team.”
More than a Feel-ing
David Feeley won’t play or coach a down for the Blue Devils. But he might just be the most important figure in maintaining at least some semblance of continuity through the transition from Elko to Diaz.
Feeley is the Blue Devils’ director of football sports performance, which is a fancy way of saying he’s the team’s strength and conditioning coach. He was offered a similar position at Texas A&M. But he turned down because of his relationship with Diaz.
And more important, with the players in Duke’s locker room.
Feeley’s return played a major role in convincing several key players to stay. Including the likes of starting safety Jaylen Stinson, running back Jaquez Moore and edge rusher Ryan Smith – all of whom originally entered the portal before withdrawing their names.
“It’s been nice having Coach Feeley there as a constant in the weight room,” Duke’s other quarterback, Grayson Loftis, said. “Him staying was a big part of our request to administration and he’s been great through the process.”
Feeley isn’t just a trusted sounding board for his players. He’s also an effective influencer who played a key role in convincing Diaz to come to Durham.
“A big reason why I wanted to come to Duke was his presence,” Diaz said of Feeley. “The fact that he chose to stay when he had opportunities to leave showed how much he loves Duke. You hear coaches throw out words all the time like ‘we have to establish our culture.’ But I knew it was already established here.
“There were 3 or 4 coaches on the staff at Duke, including Dave, who I’d worked with at Miami. So I was getting kind of inside baseball from them. So when the job came open I was very interested.”
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: Elon (W)
The Phoenix did play the Blue Devils to a tie once. But that was in 1921. Elon is 0-8 against ACC teams since the conference came into existence in 1953. None of them have been close. This one won’t be, either.
Week 2: at Northwestern (W)
Duke has had its way with the Wildcats, even when it wasn’t very good. The Blue Devils have won the past 5 meetings dating to 2017. While Northwestern will be home, this game won’t be played in its actual home. Because of renovations, the team is using a temporary venue on the banks of Lake Michigan.
Week 3: vs. UConn (W)
This would be a must-see TV matchup if it was a basketball game. Not so much in football. The Huskies went 3-9 last season with one of the wins coming against FCS Sacred Heart.
Week 4: at Middle Tennessee State (W)
This is the kind of non-power conference road game ACC commissioner Jim Phillips wants his teams to avoid in the future. Besides the Blue Raiders, who threw a scare into Missouri last year, the greatest danger for the Blue Devils is looking past this game to next week’s rivalry showdown with North Carolina.
Week 5: vs. North Carolina (L)
The Victory Bell stays in Chapel Hill for the 6th consecutive year.
Week 6: at Georgia Tech (L)
Duke’s secondary will be tested by Haynes King and a Yellow Jackets’ team, which given its difficult schedule, can’t afford to give away 50-50 games at home.
Week 7: Open
Week 8: Florida State (L)
Not even the extra week to prepare will be enough to offset the disparity in talent between the Blue Devils and Seminoles.
Week 9: SMU (W)
For the 2nd week in a row, the opponent is a defending conference champion. This one, however, was in a conference a step down from the ACC.
Week 10: at Miami (L)
No wonder Elko decided to bolt in the dead of the night. The back half of Duke’s schedule is absolutely brutal.
Week 11: at NC State (L)
Running back Jordan Waters transferred to State from Duke. But don’t expect him or his Wolfpack teammates to show any mercy for his former team.
Week 12: Open
Week 13: vs. Virginia Tech (L)
The Blue Devils might be playing for bowl eligibility, but the Hokies will be playing for a spot in the ACC Championship.
Week 14: at Wake Forest (W)
Diaz caps his first regular season at Duke by beating an in-state rival and earning a trip to the postseason.
2024 projection: 6-6 (2-6)
#GoDuke
Getting fired is a humbling experience. It can also be a learning experience. And Diaz said he spent many hours during his climb back up the ladder as the defensive coordinator at Penn State thinking about what went wrong at Miami and how he’d do things differently if he ever got the opportunity to be a head coach again.
It’s a self-reflection, he believes, that will make him better prepared to lead a program this time around.
“What’s the old saying? No man walks through the same river twice. For it’s not the same river and he’s not the same man,” Diaz said, quoting the Greek philosopher Heraclitus. “We all learn. I’ve never been the same defensive coordinator twice. You’re always taking the lessons from the last season and your career and trying to become a better version of yourself. It’s the same thing you expect and demand from your players.”
Improving on last year’s 7-win season won’t be easy because of the schedule Duke will have to face. But if Murphy lives up to his hype and Diaz’s defense performs anywhere close to the level his unit at Penn State did while allowing only 223 yards and 11.4 points per game last season, both the new coach and the Blue Devils stand a realistic chance of being the best version of themselves they can be.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
