Now that the dust has finally settled on all of the Playoff arguments, we can turn the page to the things that matter.
You know, the games. Specifically, these matchups.
In case you forgot what those are, here’s a reminder (point spreads via FanDuel):
- Friday, Dec. 19 at 8 p.m. ET on ABC: No. 9 Alabama (-1.5) at No. 8 Oklahoma
- Saturday, Dec. 20 at noon ET on ABC: No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M (-3.5)
- Saturday, Dec. 20 at 3:30 p.m. ET on TNT: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss (-16.5)
- Saturday, Dec. 20 at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon (-20.5)
In Round 1, we’ve got 4 games that are loaded with intrigue. While 2 of them are double-digit spreads — that’s what happens when 2 Group of 5 teams make the field — there are still plenty of storylines worth discussing.
Here are some early thoughts on Round 1:
No. 12 James Madison vs. No. 5 Oregon — Dante Moore’s improved accuracy under Will Stein will be pivotal
I’m old enough to remember when Moore was a 5-star recruit who struggled to complete half of his passes when he got starts as a true freshman at UCLA. A couple of years with Will Stein in the Oregon offense has completely turned that around. Not only is Moore ranked No. 3 in the FBS in completion percentage at 72.5%, but he completed at least 60% of his passes in every game this season. When he’s been under pressure, he’s No. 7 among Power Conference quarterbacks with a 73.5% adjusted completion percentage and a 100.7 NFL QB rating (min. 50 pressured drop-backs). On the season, Moore has just 8 turnover-worthy plays, but he’s also No. 4 among Power Conference quarterbacks with 24 big-time throws (via PFF).
Why is that significant in this matchup? Won’t Oregon just be able to dominate JMU in the trenches? It’s possible, but given the injuries that the Ducks have dealt with on the offensive line, that’s not a given. Bob Chesney’s squad allowed an absurd 49.5% completion rate, which is a mark that only 2 FBS teams have bested in the 2020s. Ten of their 13 opponents were held to less than that aforementioned 60% clip, and on 3rd down, JMU surrendered a 44% completion rate. Yes, JMU had a Sun Belt schedule, but that 49.5% mark for the season also included holding a Jeff Brohm-led Louisville attack to 13-of-23 passing for 151 yards, which was 76 yards below their season average. Moore’s ability to keep Oregon on schedule with his accuracy could be what keeps the Sun Belt champs at an arm’s length.
No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 8 Oklahoma — I’m not convinced that Alabama getting healthier flips the script in Norman
Kalen DeBoer didn’t want to pitch Alabama’s Playoff case to the selection committee after Saturday’s blowout loss to Georgia, but he did happen to reference how much healthier the Tide would be, especially on offense, in a hypothetical matchup 2 weeks away. He also happened to mention after a historically dreadful rushing performance that Jam Miller would be one of those guys, and that he was out for 2 of their 3 losses. Ironically, the 1 loss that Miller was healthy for was against Oklahoma, who ended up being Alabama’s Round 1 draw. On that day, Miller had 9 carries for 27 yards in Alabama’s first home loss to an SEC foe in 6 years. Alabama nearly doubled up OU in total yards, but it lost the turnover battle 3-0, which was the difference in a 2-point game.
Mind you, that came on a day in which Daniel Hill appeared to emerge as the go-to back with a career-high 15 carries for 60 yards, 28 of which came on the longest run by an Alabama player since the final minute of the Louisiana-Monroe game. Hill hasn’t had a 10-yard run since that game, though. After rushing for -3 yards against the nation’s No. 6 run defense, Alabama will now face the nation’s No. 5 run defense, who also ranks No. 2 with 2.47 yards/carry allowed. OU has allowed as many 10-yard runs (25) as Georgia. Healthy or not, Alabama’s historically disappointing ground game turning around on the road against an Oklahoma defense that hasn’t allowed 4.0 yards per carry in a game since Week 2 against Michigan — something that only happened because Alabama transfer Justice Haynes ripped off a 75-yard touchdown run — feels darn near impossible.
Even as a slight road favorite, DeBoer’s path to flipping an 0-2 script vs. Brent Venables could be an uphill battle, especially if R Mason Thomas returns from injury in time to terrorize Ty Simpson and the reeling Alabama offense.
No. 11 Tulane vs. No. 6 Ole Miss — Praise whichever coaching staff wins this game amidst suboptimal circumstances
And on the flip side, whichever coaching staff loses this game will probably face criticism, albeit for different reasons. But let’s stay on the positive for a second. If Ole Miss takes care of Tulane again — even if it’s not as decisive as the 45-10 beatdown that we watched in September — it’ll be no small feat for Pete Golding and Co. Yes, even as a significant favorite. It would be ideal post-Lane Kiffin optics to have a standalone home game wherein the Ole Miss faithful gets to witness the program’s first Playoff victory. If it’s equally dominant as the first matchup, Ole Miss can sell the notion that the program was more than 1 person. Granted, his development of Division II transfer Trinidad Chambliss and ability to recruit the portal with guys like Kewan Lacy and Pricewill Umanmielen might’ve contributed to the product on the field, but that’ll be an afterthought if Ole Miss prevails in its first game without Kiffin.
Alternatively, think about what it would mean if new Florida coach Jon Sumrall, while juggling 2 jobs, led the first Group of 5 victory in the history of the Playoff. After the rules were already changed because of Boise State’s Round 1 bye in 2024, it would dunk on post-Selection Sunday debates about stripping the Group of 5 of having an automatic bid. That’s the macro side. The micro side of Sumrall avenging a 35-point loss while juggling 2 jobs would send a loud message to his new fanbase that he’s the real deal. Ahead of the transfer portal window opening on Jan. 2, that would carry a ton of weight.
However this game turns out, the winning coach should get a universal salute … even if a humbling experience with Georgia awaits.
No. 10 Miami vs. No. 7 Texas A&M — This is a daunting draw for A&M because of the Canes’ ground game
Make no mistake. This is the premier matchup of Round 1. It’s the type of game that we hoped the 12-team Playoff would yield because in every previous version of the sport, these 2 widely discussed teams would be playing in a BCS/New Year’s 6 Bowl without a path to a title game. But it’s also a reminder that even in an expanded Playoff, daunting matchups await a 1-loss team like A&M. Miami has the ability to expose an A&M weakness down the stretch, which has been defending the run. We watched Texas have its first 100-yard rusher of the season against A&M, who had 4 games allowing north of 200 rushing yards this season, including 3 in the latter half of the schedule.
Miami dealt with the Mark Fletcher Jr. injury in early November, but if he looks healthy — he didn’t have a run longer than 8 yards in his 2 post-injury games — that’s huge in this matchup. He’s got 40 missed tackles forced on just 141 carries this season, and he racked up 479 rushing yards after first contact. That’s a drive-finisher that Miami desperately needs to ease pressure on Carson Beck, who’ll face a loaded A&M pass rush in front of 108,000 fans at Kyle Field. Miami has the ability to lean on teams with that offensive line, and while it’s not necessarily the most dominant unit at 150 yards/game, it ranks No. 5 in time of possession because of that rushing attack. If Miami can silence this crowd and keep the A&M offense out of rhythm with that ground game, it can become the first team to win a road Playoff game.
Perhaps of even greater historical significance, it could give the ACC its first Playoff/New Year’s 6 Bowl victory of the 2020s.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
