We’ve reached the penultimate Saturday of the college football regular season, and don’t ya know it, we still have questions galore about the SEC.
Who is your SEC Coach of the Year? Who’ll be the first-team All-SEC quarterback? How many SEC players will earn Heisman Trophy invites? Who will get to Atlanta? Is Vandy going to the Playoff?!?!
All of these things are on the table ahead of a week that many know as “Cupcake Week.” Yes, there are only 4 Power Conference matchups in the SEC this week, and Mizzou–Oklahoma is the lone matchup of Power Conference teams with a winning record. But the slate nationally isn’t much better. In fact, the Big Ten has just 1 matchup of Power Conference teams with a winning record while the ACC and Big 12 have 2 apiece.
Perhaps nationally, this should be known as Cupcake Week. That’s probably a bit ambitious when all one has to do to try and show that the SEC schedules cupcakes is take a screenshot of the slate while conveniently ignoring that the conference posted a 10-4 record vs. Power Conference foes in nonconference play.
Hey, narratives!
Here are some narratives, or rather “storylines,” to watch for in whatever you want to call Week 12 in the SEC:
Samford vs. No. 3 Texas A&M — Well, avoiding a slow start seems obvious now
Just a thought. Maybe a 30-3 halftime deficit sent a loud message to Texas A&M that it can’t afford to sleepwalk, especially in these early kickoffs. Then again, A&M sort of had issues with that to start the season against UTSA and Utah State. That double-digit deficit at Notre Dame was also in the first half, so it’s not as if A&M has shown up as a dominant force all year. Against Samford, I’d expect the Aggies to be a dominant force by day’s end, but could that take a bit of time? Perhaps. After all, A&M is now a virtual Playoff lock at 10-0. With Texas on short rest, there could be a desire to have minimal Marcel Reed designed runs, and perhaps it’s a conservative game plan ahead of the postseason. Still, though. A&M has all the motivation to avoid another slow start.
Mizzou vs. No. 8 Oklahoma — OU hasn’t let up 4.0 yards per carry since Week 2
Go figure that it was against Michigan, who only got to that number because of a 75-yard touchdown run from Justice Haynes to start the second half. Outside of that play, OU held Michigan to 31 carries for 71 yards. In other words, this Oklahoma run defense is no joke. Against the top back in the SEC, Ahmad Hardy, that’ll be put to the test. Hardy is coming off a historic 300-yard rushing performance in a lopsided win against a reeling Mississippi State defense. Hardy had 146 yards after first contact alone. How many times has OU allowed 146 rushing yards total this year? Once … against Michigan. OU is the SEC’s No. 1 run defense in both yards/carry allowed and rushing yards/game allowed, and Hardy is running away with the SEC rushing title. This is an ideal strength-on-strength matchup that figures to determine if OU will hold onto its clear Playoff path.
Charlotte vs. No. 4 Georgia — Watch those Gunner Stockton runs
In a game like this, one would think those wouldn’t be needed. After all, Brent Key’s team is on deck and if recent history is any indication, facing Georgia Tech is going to be a dogfight, especially on short rest. Stockton started off the 2025 season by becoming the first Kirby Smart era quarterback to have 10 rushing attempts in a game, which is a feat he matched 3 more times. Mind you, that was a game against Marshall. Hence, why it’s worth remembering in a game against Charlotte when Georgia should again have a lopsided matchup. Only 4 SEC players have more rushing touchdowns than Stockton (8). He’s developed a remarkable nose for the end zone in his first season as a starter. The good news is that Stockton and Mike Bobo have been on the same page for the majority of the season. I’d expect them both to understand that taking unnecessary hits against Charlotte doesn’t make a whole lot of sense ahead of the stretch run.
Eastern Illinois vs. No. 10 Alabama — Let’s see Daniel Hill featured again
If there was a silver lining of another down day at the office for the Alabama run game, it was that we at least saw the 244-pound true freshman get a career-high 15 carries. He finished with 20 scrimmage touches while Jam Miller had 10. Hill also had a 41-33 snap count advantage, albeit in a losing effort. The pass protection issues might still make that snap count closer to a 50-50 split, but at this point, Alabama has to be willing to see if Hill can spark something in the ground game. Against the SEC’s best run defense, Hill not only had 47 yards after first contact, but he had a 28-yard run for an Alabama team who hadn’t had a run that long since AK Dear had a 56-yard run in the final minute of the 73-0 win vs. Louisiana-Monroe in Week 2. In a favorable matchup, it’d nice to see Ryan Grubb make Hill the face of that backfield just so that offensive line can build up some confidence.
Mercer vs. Auburn — This isn’t your older brother’s Mercer squad
Under Year 2 coach Mike Jacobs, Mercer is 20-4 and it enters Saturday at Auburn on a 9-game winning streak having scored at least 38 points in the last 8 games. Since taking over the starting job, true freshman Braden Atkinson has 33 touchdown passes and 3,253 passing yards. Keep that in mind because the way to beat Auburn is through the air. You’re better off trying to attack this secondary and make that group tackle in the open field than you are attacking that loaded defensive front in the run game. In the first game with DJ Durkin juggling interim coaching duties, Auburn’s defense was gashed for 544 total yards at Vandy. Has Auburn already turned the page to an Iron Bowl that’s now loaded with intrigue after Playoff-hopeful Alabama suffered loss No. 2? It’s possible, but it’d be a mistake to look past a Mercer squad that’s a bit more equipped than the 2022 squad that came into Jordan-Hare and got blasted by Auburn 42-14.
Arkansas vs. No. 17 Texas — What way can Arkansas lose by 1 score this week?
I know that the spread is Texas -10 (via BetMGM), but let’s be honest. We know how this one ends. It ends the same way that Arkansas games have ended 6 times this year. That is, a 1-score loss. It’s actually remarkable that Arkansas is 0-6 in SEC play, but only -25 in scoring margin. That’s nearly impossible. Mind you, that’s not including the 18-point blown lead against Memphis, wherein the Hogs also lost that one by 1 score. The Notre Dame loss was the loudest because it was the nail in the coffin for the Sam Pittman era, but it’s turned out to be the outlier. In other words, don’t assume that Texas will take all of its Georgia anger out on Arkansas. The Longhorns haven’t blown out any Power Conference team with the exception of Oklahoma, who led at half. All signs point to Arkansas finding some ridiculous way to lose by 1 score. I’ll take a pick-6 from Michael Taaffe to break a late tie.
Kentucky vs. No. 12 Vanderbilt — Could this version of Cutter Boley spoil a Playoff bid?
Boley’s emergence has been at the forefront of Kentucky‘s 3-game winning streak. He looks more decisive, he’s trucking dudes as a runner and there’s a reason to believe that he’s established himself as a legitimate SEC starting quarterback. It’s why Kentucky is only a 9.5-point underdog against a Vandy team with Playoff life. He’s got an adjusted completion percentage of at least 79% in 4 of the last 5 games, and he’s up to 13 passing plays of 30 yards, which is 2 more than his Heisman Trophy candidate counterpart, Diego Pavia. Of course, Pavia has also been lethal as a runner with 613 rushing yards and 7 scores. Couple that with an SEC-best 166.8 QB rating and there’s no denying who the superior player is at this point of their careers. But what if Kentucky’s defense, which has allowed a total of 20 points the last 3 weeks, can get some help from Boley and put pressure in Vandy late? Will we see Pavia rise to the occasion like he did against Auburn? Or is there a world in which Mark Stoops gets his annual top-15 stunner on the road like he has the last 3 seasons? If Boley continues to progress, don’t rule it out.
Coastal Carolina vs. South Carolina — Dare I say, Mike Furrey might just be an upgrade at OC
I know that South Carolina got shut out in the second half at A&M, and it now owns the dubious distinction of being the first SEC team to blow a 27-point lead in conference play in over 2 decades. Part of that is on Furrey, no doubt. But that first half, which yielded 23 South Carolina points and a vintage LaNorris Sellers, felt like something to build on. Sellers didn’t get sacked in that first half, and it felt like there were big throwing windows for him. Does that mean Furrey has an opportunity to win the job as OC with a brilliant showing against Coastal Carolina? I wouldn’t go that far, but I would say this is a crucial stretch for Sellers’ future and finding a play caller with a clue post-Mike Shula firing was priority No. 1 for Shane Beamer.
No. 20 Tennessee vs. Florida — If not now, then when can Tennessee ever win in The Swamp?
I’m not sure if you’ve heard this, but Tennessee hasn’t won in The Swamp since 2003. That’s 10 consecutive wins in Gainesville for the home team in this rivalry, including 2 in the Josh Heupel era. At the same time, Heupel also has multiple wins against Florida. Of Tennessee’s 3 wins against Florida in the last 20 years, Heupel owns 2 of them. Can he become the first coach in the post-Phillip Fulmer era to beat Florida in The Swamp? The good news for the Vols is that much to the delight of their fanbase, this game will be played post-October for just the third time since these teams began playing annually in 1990, AKA the start of the Steve Spurrier era. The other good news for the Vols is that Spurrier won’t be on Florida’s sideline. It’ll instead be, for the first time in those 35 years, an interim head coach. The Gators showed fight on the road against Ole Miss, which turned out to be another game in which Florida collapsed late because that’s what 3-7 teams do. Florida’s receiver room is so banged up that Tennessee’s biggest area of weakness (the secondary) might not be exposed. If Heupel can’t get it done in The Swamp this time, it’s fair to wonder if Tennessee is forever cursed to lose that game.
Western Kentucky vs. LSU — Sneaky? Sure, but look at WKU’s strength of schedule
It’s No. 136 of 136. Woof. That’s the byproduct of having 1 victory vs. a team with a winning record. Tyson Helton’s squad doesn’t rank in the top 35 in scoring offense, scoring defense, yards/play, yards/play allowed, turnover margin, red-zone scoring percentage, or opposing 3rd-down conversion rate. Teams with that type of DNA typically aren’t rocking 2-loss records heading into the 4th Saturday of November. Just sayin’. We also saw LSU show that it still can compete for interim coach Frank Wilson. Sure, it was against lowly Arkansas, but LSU’s Whit Weeks-less defense still put up a fight for the second consecutive week, and the Tigers actually established the run. Hence, why an LSU team who has yet to exceed 25 points vs. FBS competition is a 22.5-point favorite (via FanDuel). Death Valley at night might not be what it once was, but this is still a lopsided matchup, despite what those records might suggest.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
