Well hello there, October. You got here quicky.
OK, so technically, I’m writing this in September. You’re also probably reading this in September, which might make that first sentence seem factually inaccurate.
But the way time works with all things, “early thoughts” means that we’re looking 5 days ahead. Saturday will be the first weekend of October, which means that for the “wake me up when September ends” crowd in college football (shoutout Green Day), you’ve reached the point where you can pay attention. Whether that’s being interested in single-game performances impacting individual awards like the Heisman Trophy or looking more macro at the Playoff picture, we’ve reached the point in the calendar when it just means more.
Sorry. I’ll show myself out.
With nearly half the SEC on bye in the first weekend of October, a light slate awaits, but it’s loaded with significance. Let’s dig into some early (October) thoughts on Week 6 in the SEC:
Kentucky vs. No. 12 Georgia — Say a prayer for Cutter Boley
To say that the young Kentucky quarterback is facing an uphill battle on Saturday in Athens would be like saying it hasn’t been an ideal couple of years for Mark Stoops. Understatement? Uh, yeah. It’s not just that Boley is trying to end UK’s 15-year losing streak to Georgia. Kentucky hasn’t even scored 18 points against Georgia since 2016, and the last time the Cats hit that mark in Athens was in 2009. Unlike last year, when UK played in a down-to-the-wire game against a herky-jerky Georgia team in Lexington, this game is on the heels of Kirby Smart‘s defense allowing 13 3rd-down conversions in a home loss to Alabama.
This game has “taking frustrations out” written all over it for Georgia. Kentucky’s only chance of staying afloat is leaning heavily on Seth McGowan and that ground game to keep Boley in non-obvious passing situations … and even that likely won’t be enough for Stoops to keep it within 2 scores in Athens for the first time.
No. 9 Texas vs. Florida — These defenses have to be salivating
Tell me which quarterback I’m describing with this sentence. A decorated former 5-star quarterback in his first full year of starting has struggled with accuracy issues, and will now face an experienced defense that’s been dominant against the pass. Is that Arch Manning or DJ Lagway? You pick. It’s true of both signal callers. Fortunately for them, they each got a bye week to reset, which could be the difference in whether Lagway plays after he was in a walking boot post-Miami loss. Unfortunately for them, those defenses also got an extra week to prepare. Hence, why there’s an over/under of just 43.5 points (via BetMGM).
Obviously, there’s a key difference between Manning and Lagway in terms of the competition they faced. Manning saw Ohio State’s championship-level defense in the opener, but then got 3 favorable matchups at home against inferior foes while Lagway struggled mightily Weeks 2-4 with USF and a pair of road games at LSU and Miami (FL). The former is No. 41 in FBS with a 154.1 QB rating, and he’s 5th in the SEC with 5 rushing touchdowns, all of which came in those favorable matchups. Lagway, on the other hand, is outside of the top 100 in FBS and last among qualified SEC quarterbacks with a 118.3 QB rating. If either of these signal callers come out slinging it at a high level against these talented, rested defenses, it would be a major development.
No. 16 Vanderbilt vs. No. 10 Alabama — In a weird way, maybe it’s better for Alabama that Vandy is this good
Last year, Vanderbilt‘s loss to Georgia State in September allowed the emerging Dores to fly under the radar going into that Alabama game. It set the stage for the most stunning upset of the 2024 season. Of course, it added to the shocking nature of the game that Alabama was No. 1 in the country and was fresh off the Georgia win. Once again, Alabama is coming off a Georgia win, but unlike last year, the Tide have already been humbled and Vandy is very much on the radar, which is why College GameDay will be in the house for Part II. Vandy would’ve still been on the radar if it had multiple September losses because of Diego Pavia, who already said that Tuscaloosa would be a “good, fun time” (via AL.com). Instead, Vandy is 5-0 with a No. 16 ranking having won each game by at least 3 scores. Pavia is No. 8 in FBS in quarterback rating for a Vandy offense that’s No. 4 in FBS in yards/play (7.9) and 3rd-down conversion rate (60.9%).
If you can believe it, that proven track record might actually be better for Alabama. Kalen DeBoer has more losses to unranked foes (4) during his time at Alabama than he has career losses to ranked opponents (3). He also hasn’t lost a home game since he became a Power Conference head coach in 2022. History is on the Tide’s side in that sense, though an 0-1 mark against Pavia and Co. matters, too. Whatever the case, it’s wild to think that these teams are playing as ranked opponents for the first time since 1937 (H/T Mike Rodak). Here’s hoping the first battle since the Franklin D. Roosevelt administration lives up to the billing.
Kent State vs. No. 5 Oklahoma — These are important reps for Michael Hawkins Jr.
To be clear, that’s not because Kent State is some sort of respectable test. The Golden Flashes haven’t beaten an FBS team since 2022. In 2 games vs. Power Conference competition this year, they were outscored 128-24. This shouldn’t be anything but a cakewalk for the John Mateer-less Sooners. But for Hawkins, this is a real opportunity to get reps in the Ben Arbuckle offense. Showing that he can run it at a high level is key both for him individually and for OU with and without Mateer moving forward. Even if Mateer returns in time for the Red River Rivalry, Oklahoma would still like to see Hawkins look the part with the first-teamers. With Mateer’s dual-threat style, there’s no guarantee that he stays healthy once he returns.
Hawkins also has a chance to improve his stock if he chooses to hit the portal at season’s end. One shouldn’t assume that’d be the case after he stayed in Norman amid Mateer’s arrival. But for someone who was thrown into the fire last year as a true freshman with disastrous surroundings, the circumstances for Hawkins are much better this time around. It’s up to him to take advantage of them.
Mississippi State vs. No. 6 Texas A&M — Don’t sleep on this being another test for the A&M offense
In Week 5, Mississippi State gave Joey Aguilar and the red-hot Tennessee offense everything that they could handle. In the first 58 minutes of regulation, Mississippi State’s defense allowed 1 offensive touchdown. The Bulldogs also forced 3 turnovers in what turned into a wild, back and forth game. Mind you, that was a few weeks removed from Mississippi State knocking off defending Big 12 champ Arizona State with decorated quarterback Sam Leavitt, who passed for just 82 yards on 22 attempts. This is a vastly improved Mississippi State defense — yards/play allowed are down to 4.7 from 6.3 last year — that could give Texas A&M some problems.
Sure, the Bulldogs did most of their defensive damage with cowbells rocking behind them in Starkville, but it’s not like Kyle Field fueled an offensive explosion from the Aggies in their SEC opener. After an opening-drive touchdown, A&M never reached the end zone again against Auburn. While Auburn appears to have one of the SEC’s better defenses, it was definitely a setback for a unit that showed all sorts of offensive versatility in the first 3 games. A bounce-back could be in store for Marcel Reed and the A&M offense, but one shouldn’t assume that’s imminent after an encouraging start from the Mississippi State defense.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
