Don’t freak out over seeing that double-digit number. I know. It’s daunting. It’s a reminder of how fleeting fall is, but I’ll again remind you, reader of his column, that there’s good news to be had.
We’ve still got more than 2.5 months until we crown a College Football Playoff national championship winner.
As the calendar turns to November, we’ve also still got more than a month until we crown an SEC Championship Game winner. Much can happen.
After an eventful Week 9 in the SEC race, let’s break down some early Week 10 thoughts with (some) eyes on that conference title:
South Carolina vs. No. 7 Ole Miss — Can Ole Miss get a rare comfortable win?
It’s a fair question to ask when you consider that Lane Kiffin‘s squad has played in a 1-score game in 5 of 7 contests this year. To its credit, Ole Miss is also 7-1 having only blown the Georgia game after leading by 2 scores in the 4th quarter. In theory, this should be a favorable matchup at home against a South Carolina team that can’t seem to get back on track after a preseason top-15 ranking. The Gamecocks have had, at least prior to the Alabama game, issues defending the run and getting explosive plays in the passing game.
It’s not a vintage Ole Miss run game under Kiffin, but it’s at least one that can be a tough task behind Kewan Lacy, who leads the SEC with 12 rushing touchdowns and is No. 2 among Power Conference backs with 58 missed tackles forced. Ideally, Ole Miss would have Lacy doing the heavy lifting while Trinidad Chambliss would continue to operate behind a well-blocked offensive line. You could argue that Ole Miss does all the things well that South Carolina’s offense wishes it could do well (protect the QB, get explosives in the passing game, run the ball, etc.). Seeing those differences play out in a rare lopsided game in Oxford would be a welcome sight for Playoff-hopeful Ole Miss.
No. 18 Oklahoma vs. No. 14 Tennessee — This is a different kind of Josh Heupel-OU reunion game than last year
Don’t get it twisted. The drama over last year’s Heupel reunion was sports movie stuff. You couldn’t script the former Oklahoma national championship winning quarterback returning to Norman under those circumstances a decade removed from his firing as OC. But this year, dare I say, the stakes will be even higher for Heupel. Timing is part of that. This is a November Saturday instead of a September Saturday. But it’s fair to call this a true Playoff elimination game. A pair of 2-loss teams who are lacking big-time wins would hardly fit the mold of the first 3-loss team to make the field.
OU’s passing game has somewhat quietly been stuck in neutral since John Mateer’s expedited return from his broken thumb. Connect those dots if you will, but Mateer is seeing a juicy matchup to turn things around. Tennessee‘s banged-up secondary yielded the No. 124 passing defense. That’s on the heels of allowing 330 passing yards and 5 touchdowns to Cutter Boley and a Kentucky offense that hadn’t hit 25 points under second-year OC Bush Hamdan. And yes, even though this game will be played in Knoxville, Tennessee surrendered an average of 275 passing yards in Neyland. That feels like it’ll have a massive say in who keeps Playoff hopes alive heading into the home stretch.
No. 9 Vanderbilt vs. No. 20 Texas — Arch Manning’s concussion protocol will dominate headlines, but how much will that matter?
Texas is a slight 3-point favorite for this one, so make of that what you will. Manning suffered a concussion that sidelined him at the end of the Mississippi State comeback, which would lead one to believe that the decorated Texas quarterback has a fairly decent shot of playing. But whether it’s Manning or Matthew Caldwell, who delivered that game-winning score, ask yourself this. Are we sure that either quarterback will have success moving the ball consistently against the Vandy defense? The Commodores have a top-20 run defense nationally and they’re No. 20 in FBS with 21 sacks this season.
At the very least, it’s unrealistic to expect Texas to string scoring drives together for the majority of this matchup. The Longhorns have yet to show that they can do that against Power Conference competition. Perhaps their first home game vs. Power Conference competition will change that around, but at this point, Texas is who it is. That is, an offense that lacks an identity and only looks the part when it trails in the second half. Vandy, who is more than capable of holding 1-score leads, figures to be a tall task if yet another slow start puts Texas in a deficit at the break.
No. 5 Georgia vs. Florida — Beware of the interim energy, Georgia
Go ask UCLA and UAB about interim energy. It’s real. As Penn State found out back in September, it can sometimes be challenging facing a first-time play-caller. That’ll be the case after Florida fired Billy Napier. Quarterbacks coach Ryan O’Hara is going to be calling plays for a Florida offense that’s been one of the more disappointing SEC units in 2025. Napier took heat for his play-calling and late-game decisions, but one thing he seemed to finally figure out was how to get Jadan Baugh involved. He had 22-30 scrimmage touches in the final 3 games of the Napier era, which feels like a wise strategy to continue against a Georgia defense that’s been vulnerable in SEC play.
At the same time, UGA’s lack of a pass rush could make DJ Lagway look as confident as he did against Texas when the Longhorns failed to bring him down. That could explain why this is only a 7.5-point spread. Florida has been in 1-score games deep into the 3rd quarter in all 4 of those losses. If the Gators come out looking like a team that’s relieved to have the Napier decision in the rearview mirror, nobody should be surprised if this is a down-to-the-wire Cocktail Party.
Mississippi State vs. Arkansas — The Bulldogs won’t be bowling without this game
That’s not bold, but it does need to be said for a team that started off 4-0 with a win against the defending Big 12 champs. Mississippi State should already be bowl-eligible having blown not 1, not 2, but 3 SEC games late. Instead, they’ve made some brutal late-game decisions that have proven costly. Whether that’s punting to Ryan Niblett, throwing the ball while in field goal range late or roughing the passer on 4th and 1 in a 17-point game, Jeff Lebby‘s squad can’t get out of its own way. Hence, why that 15-game SEC losing streak exists. It dates back to that dreadful 7-3 win at Arkansas in 2023.
Returning to the scene of the crime, Mississippi State has all the reason to show up desperate. It’s still a 4.5-point road underdog against an Arkansas team that can light up the scoreboard. It’s not often that a 2-5 squad ranks No. 3 in FBS in yards/play. Taylen Green and Mike Washington are capable of running all over an improved, but not elite, Bulldogs run defense. If that plays out in another devastating Mississippi State loss, Lebby and Co. can all but kiss those postseason dreams goodbye with remaining games vs. No. 5 Georgia, at No. 19 Mizzou and vs. No. 7 Ole Miss.
Kentucky vs. Auburn — Ashton Daniels, you’ve got nothing to lose
This is the best SEC matchup possible. At home, facing a Kentucky defense who just allowed 3 different Tennessee receivers to hit the 100-yard mark, Daniels should be set up for success. Auburn’s weapons haven’t gone anywhere. It’s just been easy to forget they’ve been there with the Jackson Arnold version of the Auburn offense. Assuming that Daniels is the guy moving forward, one would think that this will be an opportunity for him to pick up where he left off in the second half against the equally-porous defense he faced at Arkansas.
The frustration with Arnold was that he felt too afraid to make mistakes, and it limited the offense. He’s No. 14 among SEC quarterbacks with just 23 passes of 20 yards attempted. A week after Kentucky was gashed for 5 passing plays of 35 yards, there’s no reason why Auburn shouldn’t be willing to stretch the field with Cam Coleman and Co. As long as Daniels can hit on some of those explosive plays against a lost Kentucky defense, the Tigers should be set up for a rare multi-score SEC win at Jordan-Hare … which has only happened once since Nov. 2021.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
