It’s getting real.
The chase for Atlanta, and essentially an automatic bid into the College Football Playoff with a possible Round 1 bye, is getting real as we head into the 3rd Saturday of November. Still in the hunt for that are Texas A&M (6-0 in SEC play), Alabama (6-0), Georgia (6-1), Ole Miss (5-1) and Texas (4-1).
This week, that number will go down to 4 with Texas traveling to Georgia. Consider that an SEC Championship elimination game. If Texas wins, it’ll likely have another SEC Championship elimination game to close the season when it hosts A&M. Those are the only 2 remaining matchups involving those 5 teams, but as we saw last year, plenty of other SEC foes can have an impact on that race to Atlanta.
Let’s discuss the potential for that in Week 12:
South Carolina vs. No. 3 Texas A&M — No Mike Shula? Great, but LaNorris Sellers still has a Cashius Howell problem
In his first game with Mike Furrey as South Carolina‘s offensive coordinator, Sellers will travel to face an A&M defense who boasts the SEC’s sacks leader in Howell, who plays for the team who leads the nation in sacks per game (3.8). Oh, and Sellers has been pressured on 44.7% of his drop-backs, which is the highest among Power Conference quarterbacks (min. 75 pressured drop-backs). Not great. Also not great? A&M allowed 12 points per SEC home game. If South Carolina had any sort of ground game, perhaps that could be an area that could be exposed after A&M allowed multiple 100-yard rushers at Mizzou, but the SEC’s worst run game in yards/game and yards/carry doesn’t figure to find that in College Station.
This has the makings of a long day at the office for Sellers as a 3-score underdog (via BetMGM). Sadly, that’s been the story of his season.
Arkansas vs. LSU — Our first interim bowl of 2025!
Hey, it was inevitable. After all, 25% of the conference fired their head coach before Week 11. We were destined to get a matchup of interim coaches, and the college football gods blessed us with Bobby Petrino and Frank Wilson. Both fiery coaches have had notable sideline moments, with the former blasting officials and the latter blasting his own decorated QB1, Garrett Nussmeier, who was benched in favor of Michael Van Buren Jr. amid LSU‘s comeback attempt vs. Alabama. Neither one of these coaches figure to get their respective interim tags removed, which is all the more reason that this game could get sideways.
LSU being a 6-point favorite hardly feels like a lock, and while Blake Baker’s unit showed against Alabama that it was still fighting, facing an Arkansas ground game that’s averaging 6 yards per carry will test that. The Tigers will have to find motivation beyond clinching a bowl berth.
Tennessee Tech vs. Kentucky — Um, Tennessee Tech has won 15 in a row
Yeah. I didn’t realize that, either. That’s why you come to a place like this to learn things about FCS opponents who look like cupcakes, but might actually be as tough as a $2 steak. That’s terrifying. It’s terrifying because Mark Stoops has seemingly righted the ship with consecutive SEC wins against Auburn and Florida, who were held to 1 combined touchdown. Speaking of dominant defensive performances, during this 15-game winning streak, which dates back to Oct. 2024, Tennessee Tech allowed 24 points just once. That’s not something that should be ignored for Cutter Boley and a Kentucky offense that showed signs of life in a 38-7 beatdown on Saturday, albeit against a lifeless Florida defense.
And just in case that wasn’t enough to give Kentucky fans a little pause ahead of this matchup, Tennessee Tech coach Bobby Wilder looks like he came off the set of “Peaky Blinders.” Things could get weird in Lexington on Saturday afternoon.
No. 11 Oklahoma vs. No. 4 Alabama — The stat that has allowed Alabama to operate in such a unique way is …
Ty Simpson leads all FBS QBs with 780 passing yards while possessing a lead of 1-7 points. In those situations, he’s a 67% passer with a 162.6 QB rating and he’s thrown for 33 first downs, which trails only Marcel Reed (34) among FBS quarterbacks. Why bring that up? Well, it’s simple. Alabama can’t run the ball. At all. After a 56-yard performance on the ground against LSU — that was Alabama’s fewest rushing yards in a game since that weird 2023 game vs. Texas A&M — the Tide rank No. 15 in the SEC in yards/carry (3.5) and No. 14 in rushing yards/game (111.9). Ty Simpson is Alabama’s leader with 13 missed tackles forced as a runner while the Tide have just 798 rushing yards after contact, which ranks No. 14 in the SEC. It’s why the ball is seemingly always in his hands late in games when Alabama would ideally prefer to run the ball.
Keep that in mind against this Oklahoma defense, which has been mostly dominant, but a bit vulnerable against the pass in conference play. The Sooners have allowed 253 passing yards per SEC game, which ranks No. 12 in the SEC. One would think Alabama will again lean on that passing game instead of running it at an OU defense that hasn’t allowed 4.0 yards per carry since Week 2. Note that Alabama hasn’t had 4.0 yards per carry since Week 2 against Louisiana-Monroe, but when you’ve got Simpson playing at such a high level with big-time throws and just 1 interception, well, you can operate in a unique way.
New Mexico State vs. No. 21 Tennessee — I’ve given up hope that Tennessee’s cornerback duo will return in 2025
That is, Rickey Gibson III and Jermod McCoy, AKA Tennessee‘s top 2 corners who have played a combined 19 snaps this season. All of those came from Gibson in the season opener, when he suffered an upper-body injury that made matters worse for a Tennessee secondary that had already lost McCoy to a January ACL tear. That’s been at the forefront of Tennessee’s down defensive season. It’s not just that the Vols have allowed 33 passing plays of 20 yards (No. 14 in SEC). It’s that they have struggled with missed tackles in space. On the season, the Vols have 103 missed tackles. That’s the 4th most in the SEC. Teams like Auburn and Vanderbilt have been able to overcome that because they’ve been excellent against the run, especially in the red zone. Tennessee, however, ranks dead last in FBS with an 83.9% red-zone touchdown percentage allowed. That’s a year removed from ranking No. 5 in FBS in that area at 46%.
Why bring that up with McCoy and Gibson? Last year, McCoy had 3 interceptions within Tennessee’s 5-yard line. He was a momentum-flipping game-wrecker in that area of the field. There was hope early on that McCoy and Gibson would return for a potential Playoff push. But now that the Vols are out of that conversation, it doesn’t feel like anybody should be holding their breath for their return.
Florida vs. No. 6 Ole Miss — This is more than just a revenge game for Ole Miss
It’s a “let’s not screw up our Playoff hopes so that Lane Kiffin has all the reason in the world to stay at Ole Miss” game. That matters, too. A letdown to a lifeless Florida team would be an all-time bad loss for Kiffin, though given his team’s ability to avoid those potential land mines this year, that would feel completely out of character. Out of character for Kiffin would be to completely ignore the elephant in the room. His ties to the Florida job won’t be lost on him. His “spot the ball” tweets have felt like subtle jabs at Florida. My guess is that we’ll see plenty of those this week before and after Ole Miss takes care of business against Florida.
It’s worth noting that DJ Lagway got benched against Kentucky. A year removed from getting the biggest win of his college career by halting Ole Miss’s Playoff path, Lagway’s time at Florida could be done on the heels of Billy Napier’s firing. What a difference a year makes.
No. 10 Texas vs. No. 5 Georgia — Does Kirby Smart just have Steve Sarkisian’s number?
In both of those Georgia wins against Texas last year, the Longhorns failed to score 20 points and they were held to an average of 30 rushing yards without a rushing score. Those were the 2 worst rushing performances since the start of the 2023 season. Oh, and the Longhorns turned the ball over a combined 7 times in those losses. That feels … significant. Sure, those were different teams, but Smart has been a reminder that sometimes, the uniform matters (his 1-7 mark vs. Alabama supports that). Play callers matter. Those haven’t changed since those statements that the Georgia defense made.
Coming off its most complete game of the year in a blowout win at Mississippi State, Georgia looks like a team that could be rounding into form at the right time. If that is indeed the case, it’ll frustrate a 2-loss Texas team that’s kept its SEC Championship and Playoff hopes alive the last month. Smart getting to 3-0 against Sarkisian and being responsible for half of his losses since the start of 2024 would be quite the feather in the Georgia coach’s cap.
Mississippi State vs. Mizzou — Have mercy on the Mississippi State run defense
It was gashed by Georgia in every possible way. Nate Frazier is still running. He was at the center of a 303-yard rushing day for the visiting Dawgs. Mind you, that was a week removed from getting gashed for 239 yards against 2-win Arkansas. A defense that looked like it was on the rise now gets to close the season with games against Ahmad Hardy and Kewan Lacy. Why bring that up? Those are the 2 Power Conference leaders in missed tackles forced. That’s bad news for a Mississippi State run defense that has missed 110 tackles this year, which is tied for the most of any SEC team. Yikes.
With Mizzou, it’s not even just Hardy, who leads the conference with 1,046 rushing yards. Jamal Roberts is an ideal change-of-pace back with 538 rushing yards and 6.5 yards/carry. Among SEC backs with at least 60 carries, he’s No. 2 with an average of 4.2 yards after first contact. Who’s No. 1, you ask? Hardy. Say a little prayer for the Mississippi State defense.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
