We’re now past the halfway point because that’s how time works. What does that mean? You sort of are who you are.
Yes, we could see exceptions to that. A team like 2024 South Carolina looked like a different team in the latter half of the season, though some of that was because LaNorris Sellers was able to stay healthy in ways that he couldn’t in the first month.
The vast majority of SEC teams have an identity that can give us an idea of what to expect week to week. Or at the very least, we have enough data on these teams against Power Conference competition to project how these matchups should look.
No SEC team is off in Week 8. In fact, we’ve got nothing but conference matchups.
Here are some early thoughts on a full Week 8 slate in the SEC:
No. 10 LSU vs. No. 17 Vanderbilt — If Brian Kelly doesn’t work at LSU, we’ll look back on a game like this
Don’t get it twisted. That’s not my way of saying that Brian Kelly is getting left on the tarmac in Nashville if he fails to take down the fightin’ Diego Pavias. It is, however, the type of game that could prove massive for LSU‘s Playoff chances with the schedule that awaits. We all said that in Year 4, not making the Playoff would be catastrophic for Kelly’s long-term outlook at LSU. After an offseason of spending — that included $1 million of his own money to the NIL efforts — that would be a disastrous result. Suffering loss No. 2 with a schedule that still features 3 top-15 teams after Vanderbilt is something that just cannot happen for Kelly and Co. After a hobbled Garrett Nussmeier was limited once again, it’s safe to say that LSU going into Vandy and pulling off an upset — the Commodores are 2.5-point favorites (via BetMGM) — is by no means inevitable.
A lot is on the line for Kelly at Vanderbilt … just as we all thought in August.
No. 14 Oklahoma vs. South Carolina — The Gamecocks’ protection issues simply have to be cleaned up against this defense
You know it’s an issue when you get a midseason offensive line coach firing. After parting ways with OL coach Lonnie Teasley and putting Shawn Elliott in that role, Shane Beamer is set on rectifying an obvious Achilles’ heel in order to protect South Carolina’s top asset. That is, LaNorris Sellers. Even when Sellers was knocked out of the Vanderbilt game, it came because of a free rusher. Sellers might be Superman, but he needs help, especially against an Oklahoma defense that ranks No. 3 in FBS with 22 sacks this season. R Mason Thomas might not be as decorated as Dylan Stewart (he should be), but he’s plenty capable of making this another frustrating day at the office for Sellers.
Think about how tough Sellers is to bring down, and now think about the fact that he’s still been sacked on 22.7% of the times that he’s been pressured (26th-highest rate in FBS among QBs with 30 pressured dropbacks). That’s a troubling thought for a unit that’ll face an angry Oklahoma defense after it struggled to get to Arch Manning.
No. 4 Texas A&M vs. Arkansas — Bobby Petrino isn’t getting the full-time job without a win like this
I don’t have to tell Arkansas fans how maddening the A&M rivalry has been since it became an annual occurrence in the SEC. A 1-12 mark in those games doesn’t tell the full story. Of those 12 losses, 7 of them have been by 1 score and only 2 of them came by 3 scores. History tells us that if something can go wrong for the Hogs in a key moment, it will. However, this is the first time since 2013 that A&M is coming to Fayetteville. Or rather, this is the first time that Texas A&M is coming to Fayetteville as an SEC member without Johnny Manziel. How’s that for perspective? If Petrino wins a game like this against a top-5 A&M team, at the very least, he’s winning over more of those important decision-makers. If he doesn’t win a game like this, it’s hard to imagine him turning necessary heads with upcoming games against Auburn and Mississippi State, both of whom are winless in SEC play.
And no, a close loss to cover a 7.5-point spread isn’t enough at a place where close losses are far too routine.
No. 5 Ole Miss vs. No. 9 Georgia — So, like, what if Georgia could avoid a double-digit deficit this time?
Just a wild thought for Georgia, who insists on trailing by double digits against all the non-Kentucky teams it faces in the SEC. We saw that play out against Tennessee, Alabama and most recently Auburn, and the fact that UGA went 2-1 in those games is a testament to that coaching staff for making the right adjustments. It’s also a testament to Gunner Stockton and CJ Allen, both of whom led their respective units to impressive second-half turnarounds. But against Ole Miss, who waxed Georgia in Oxford last year, now feels like a good time for the Dawgs to actually put a quality team on its heels. Ole Miss has also found itself comfortable playing in close games, specifically with a late lead. Hence, why 4 of those 6 wins have been 1-score games even with only 9:47 spent trailing in the second half this season, all of which came in a sleepy showing vs. Washington State.
Staring at a second-half deficit vs. Trinidad Chambliss, who might be the SEC’s best non-Ty Simpson quarterback right now, wouldn’t be an ideal development for Georgia. But perhaps in Chambliss’s first career road start, UGA won’t have to worry about that.
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Mississippi State vs. Florida — A Florida loss on Saturday would mean a Billy Napier firing on Sunday
Tell me I’m wrong about that. Ah, you’re gonna say that Scott Stricklin wouldn’t be able to pull the trigger? Nah. Think about the context here. You’ve got a home game against the coach, Jeff Lebby, who is searching for his first-ever SEC win. Mind you, he’s 0-10 in conference play in Year 2. This was a game that Florida dominated last year in Starkville, albeit with a season-ending, mid-game injury to Mississippi State quarterback Blake Shapen. You can’t turn around and lose that one, especially not for loss No. 5. Why is that significant? At 2-5, Napier would have matched last year’s loss total. In other words, he couldn’t have a better record and he would have 2 demoralizing losses in front of the Florida faithful. Losing as a double-digit favorite (again) would all but erase the good vibes from that Texas win, especially after the way the second half played out at Texas A&M.
Once again, Florida will be tasked with playing like Napier’s job is on the line. Perhaps that’s just what the doctor ordered.
No. 21 Texas vs. Kentucky — Tricky? Yes, but here’s a comforting thought for Texas
Kentucky is searching for its first Power Conference home win since Sept. 30, 2023 vs. Florida. That’s 9 consecutive losses in those matchups. I put the “home” caveat in there because there might be a sense that Texas is destined for a letdown after 2 disappointing showings in road atmospheres. But while Kroger Field can indeed be a hostile atmosphere, even Kentucky fans would tell you that it’s not The Horseshoe or The Swamp. And of course, the Kentucky offense still has to share a field with the Texas defense. Last year in Austin, Cutter Boley showed promise in the second half. Like, enough promise to get a pat on the back from Matthew McConaughey. Granted, that wasn’t until Texas was already up 3 scores. This year, nothing we’ve seen from the Kentucky offense suggests that it can sustain scoring drives against a decent SEC defense, much less against a unit who ranks No. 9 in the FBS in yards/play allowed.
Texas laying an egg in Lexington after making a loud Red River Rivalry statement would be a stunning development for a Playoff-hopeful team that doesn’t have a bad loss to give.
No. 11 Tennessee vs. No. 6 Alabama — Can either team stop the run?
What if I told you that Tennessee‘s defense would allow between 198-240 rushing yards in its first 3 SEC games of 2025? Alternatively, what if I told you that Alabama‘s defense would allow 5.8-7.1 rushing yards per play in 3 consecutive wins vs. AP Top 25 teams? Would you believe either possibility with what those units returned on the defensive line? Probably not. Yet to this point, they’re both 1-loss teams who’ll have favorable Playoff paths with a win on Saturday night in Tuscaloosa. Go figure. Tennessee’s run defense woes could get a break if Jam Miller is unable to return to action following a concussion that he suffered on a critical 4th-down conversion at Mizzou. After all, the Tide haven’t reached 4.0 yards/carry in any of their 5 games vs. Power Conference competition. You can overcome that sort of thing if you’ve got the best quarterback in the sport, which Alabama might just have in Simpson. One would think Simpson attacking a banged-up Tennessee secondary that’s been without its top 2 corners would be the ideal plan of attack if Miller is sidelined, but who knows? The Vols were gashed by less-talented teams.
But maybe the real question is whether Tennessee has a plan to stop the freight train that is 360-pound Kadyn Proctor. It’ll need one to win in Tuscaloosa for the first time since 2003.
No. 16 Mizzou vs. Auburn — Hugh Freeze needs Jordan-Hare magic to finally appear (and maybe get a call to go his way)
To be clear, Saturday night’s horrendous 180 showed exactly why Jordan-Hare magic is dead. It’s still an elite atmosphere, but “magic” implies that it’ll find a way to will Auburn to a win. Getting a brutal call on that Jackson Arnold fumble at the goal line led to all the air being taken out of the building. It’s safe to say that a 5-14 mark at home vs. Power Conference competition in the post-Gus Malzahn era isn’t magical. To shake off another 0-3 start to conference play and beat No. 16 Mizzou, Hugh Freeze can’t bank on the surroundings being the difference, though it’s wild to think that this is Mizzou’s first road game of 2025. It’s also the first career road start for Beau Pribula, who had a disappointing passing performance in Mizzou’s first loss of the season against Alabama. Keep that in mind, though it won’t be surprising if Mizzou opts to get back to a ground-heavy approach with Ahmad Hardy after his light usage in the Alabama loss. Shutting him down will be no small feat for Freeze and Co.
An 0-4 start to SEC play could be all she wrote on the Freeze era. If there was ever a time for Freeze to finally get some home cooking — both from Jordan-Hare and the officials — now is it.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
