ESPN’s FPI predicts outcome for every game on Auburn’s 2025 schedule
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ESPN’s Football Power Index has released its winning percentages for each of Auburn’s games this fall, which embattled head coach Hugh Freeze needs to go well in order to get the program back on track.
Freeze came to the Plains with a ton of expectations in 2023, but so far the returns have been far less than applicable for a fan base that is always trying to keep up with rival Alabama and the rest of the SEC contenders. The Tigers went just 6-7 in Freeze’s first season in 2023, then followed it up with a slightly worse 5-7 mark last fall.
The 55-year-old Freeze is heading into a huge Year 3 at Auburn, because the combined 11-14 was pretty much a disaster during his first 2 years. So, what does ESPN’s FPI believe Auburn will accomplish in 2025?
To start with, Auburn is ranked 21st in the country by the FPI, which means the Tigers are expected to be a top 25 program this fall. The FPI has Auburn’s win-loss projection at 6.9-5.1, which wouldn’t satisfy fans who want a double-digit-win season but at least would produce the first winning season for Freeze at Auburn. For the real passionate fans who have visions of Auburn heading to Atlanta in December and even winning the SEC, the FPI believes that Freeze’s team only has a 0.7% chance to do just that.
On a positive note, the FPI gives Auburn a 12.4% chance to make the College Football Playoff, which isn’t bad considering what the past 2 seasons have produced. And for the fans with the biggest of dreams for Freeze’s 3rd season, FPI gives Auburn a 0.9% chance to make the national title game and a 0.3% shot to win it all.
Here are the full FPI winning percentages for Auburn’s 2025 schedule:
- Aug. 29 at Baylor — 48.2%
- Sept. 6: vs. Ball State — 96.5%
- Sept. 13: vs. South Alabama — 89.6%
- Sept. 20: at Oklahoma — 41.6%
- Sept. 27: at Texas A&M — 26.0%
- Oct. 11: vs. Georgia — 27.9%
- Oct. 18: vs. Missouri — 58.4%
- Oct. 25: at Arkansas — 46.8%
- Nov. 1: vs. Kentucky — 70.8%
- Nov. 8: at Vanderbilt — 63.0%
- Nov. 22: vs. Mercer — 97.8%
- Nov. 29: vs. Alabama — 27.0%
Cory Nightingale, a former sportswriter and sports editor at the Miami Herald and Palm Beach Post, is a South Florida-based freelance writer who covers Alabama for SaturdayDownSouth.com.
