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Missouri Tigers Football

ESPN’s FPI predicts the outcome Mizzou vs Oklahoma

Lee Ann Herring-Olvedo

By Lee Ann Herring-Olvedo

Published:

Mizzou (7-3,3-3 SEC) is set to travel to Norman for an SEC showdown against the No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners (8-2,4-2 SEC), with early odds favoring Brent Venables’s team by more than a touchdown as OU heads into this Week 13 matchup.

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) projects how it plays out for these two former Big 12 rivals in their renewed SEC clash, projecting a strong likelihood of an Oklahoma victory at 65.4%. Mizzou, on the other hand, has a 35.8% chance of pulling off an upset on the road.

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The Tigers enter this game following a decisive 49-28 win over Mississippi State in Week 12. Running back Ahmad Hardy led the way with a historic performance of 25 carries for 300 yards and three touchdowns. Quarterback Matt Zollers completed 8 of 15 passes for 112 yards, along with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception.

Meanwhile, the Sooners knocked off Alabama by a score of 23-21. Quarterback John Matteer threw for 138 yards on 15 of 23 passing attempts without any touchdowns or interceptions. He also rushed ten times for 23 yards and scored one rushing touchdown. Running back Xavier Robison added to the offense with ten carries for 34 yards and two receptions totaling eight yards.

After seven failed attempts in the overall series, the Tigers broke their winless streak in 2010. Mizzou was still in the Big 12 and the BCS was still intact.  Blaine Gabbert led the then-No. 18 Tigers to a surprising upset over the Sooners, winning by a score of 36-27 at home in Columbia. The Tigers would repeat history in 2024 but this time as members of the SEC. Zion Young would return a fumble recovery for 17 yards with 22 seconds left on the clock that led Mizzou to upset Oklahoma 30-23. However, both have been at home in Columbia. The Tigers haven’t won in Norman since 1966.

This could be another intriguing battle, particularly in third-down situations, where both teams’ defensive capabilities are comparable. Both squads are currently tied at No. 13 in FBS with a third-down conversion percentage allowed of just 31.1%.

Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET from Norman and will be broadcast on ABC.

Lee Ann Herring-Olvedo

Lee Ann joins the Saturday Down South team, bringing over fifteen years of experience covering the SEC as both a sports journalist and football scout. With her keen eye for talent, she has also flexes her skills as the Director of Recruiting for the Rebel Walk( Ole Miss) Herring, is a staff writer at USA Today Sports Wildcats Wire, where she dives into the thrilling world of Kentucky football and basketball. When fall rolls around, you can catch her on air as an analyst for the Wake up 502 College Football Show on Big X Sports Radio 96.1 FM—because who doesn't love a good game day chat? A proud Brown University alum, Lee Ann balances her time between the sidelines and press box with her passion for coaching her boys' youth lacrosse and savoring a fine glass of bourbon alongside a good cigar. So, whether she's dissecting plays or rallying the next generation of athletes, Lee Ann is your spirited insider ready to tackle all things SEC!

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