ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) updates after each week of college football action.
After one of the wildest weekends in recent memory that featured multiple top-10 upsets, the model had some modest updates.
Texas still has the best chance to win the conference, sitting at 45.2%. Even after losing to Vanderbilt in a stunning upset, the Crimson Tide are at No. 2 with a 16.0% chance. Alabama moved down just 1 spot in FPI’s overall ratings, from No. 2 to No. 3. Ole Miss — which swapped places with Tennessee at No. 5 and No. 6, respectively — has a 12.8% to win the league after beating South Carolina in Week 6.
Here are the odds for each team:
- Texas — 45.2%
- Alabama — 16.0%
- Ole Miss — 12.8%
- Georgia — 8.4%
- Texas A&M — 7.2%
- Tennessee — 7.0%
- LSU — 2.2%
- Arkansas — 0.6%
- Oklahoma — 0.3%
- Missouri — 0.3%
- Vanderbilt — 0.1%
Notably, Tennessee’s chances are much slimmer after stumbling at Arkansas. The 4-1 Vols now have an uphill battle if they plan on winning the conference in 2024.
Texas A&M, now 3-0 in league play under Mike Elko, is in a good spot after easily getting by Missouri. The Aggies moved up 6 spots in FPI and as a result, A&M is now seen as the fifth-most likely SEC champ. Missouri’s odds are less than 1%.
Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt have less than a 1% chance, while Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and South Carolina have a 0% chance.
Week 7 has several games that could have SEC Championship implications. The top-ranked Longhorns will be looking to stay atop the conference as they take on No. 18 Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. Tennessee and Ole Miss face Florida and LSU, respectively.
Bryce Lazenby covers college football for Saturday Down South. A Nashville native, his previous stops include FanSided, Dimers, and The Leaf-Chronicle.
