ESPN’s SP+ model has updated its projections for all Power 4 conference championship odds after Week 5.
The outcome of the Alabama-Georgia game drastically impacted the percent chance each team has to win the conference. Alabama now has a 27.1% shot to win the SEC according to SP+, while Georgia fell to 5.3%. Texas, Tennessee and Missouri follow the Tide in that order, all with an 8% chance or greater. Notably, Ole Miss remained ahead of Georgia with a 6.2% chance to win the league following its loss to Kentucky.
Only 3 teams in the Big Ten have greater than a 20% chance to win the league, with Ohio State (41%) leading the way ahead of Penn State (24.3%) and Oregon (20.4%).
The Big 12 is as wide open as any league in the country, and SP+ reflects that. Seven teams have a 5% or greater chance to win the conference, with Kansas State headlining at 23.3% despite already having a conference defeat to BYU.
Miami has a strong lead in the ACC title race with the best ACC championship odds, as the Hurricanes are being given a 31.3% chance to win the league. But a steadily rising Clemson has a 20.1% chance according to SP+, and the likes of Louisville and SMU are not far behind.
Here’s a look at the P4 conference title odds per SP+:
P4 conference title odds per SP+:
ACC: Miami 31.3%, Clemson 20.1%, UL 19.7%, SMU 10.5%
B12: KSU 23.3%, ISU 20.2%, Utah 15.1%, BYU 8.7%, UA 6.9%, TCU 6.0%, CU 5.7%
B1G: Oh St 41.0%, PSU 24.3%, Oregon 20.4%
SEC: Bama 27.1%, Tex 26.8%, Vols 17.8%, MIZ 8.6%, Rebs 6.2%, UGA 5.3%
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 29, 2024
Parker is currently the sports editor for the Enterprise-Journal in McComb, Mississippi. He's a graduate from Mizzou who has experience covering the Tiger football and basketball beats for SB Nation, and he's worked for a variety of sports news outlets in the past.
