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Year 4 is critical for college football coaches. It marks the completion of one cycle of recruits — not including redshirts — through the program.
It’s the minimum amount of time most schools — barring misconduct or exceptionally poor performance — allot to evaluate a coach’s performance, and perhaps make a change if believed warranted.
In 2016, Arkansas’ Bret Bielema, Tennessee’s Butch Jones, Auburn’s Gus Malzahn and Kentucky’s Mark Stoops are entering their fourth season at their respective schools.
Here’s a look at how each of the four have fared and the present outlook for their programs:
BRET BIELEMA
Record (SEC record): 18-20 (7-17)
Accomplishments in first three seasons: Bielema and the Razorbacks showed significant progress in the second half of Year 3, beating No. 10 Ole Miss, LSU and Tennessee while posting a 5-3 SEC record as part of an 8-5 season capped by a Music City Bowl victory over Kansas State. Arkansas proved itself to be one of the most physical teams in the SEC, rushing for 197 yards per game led by Alex Collins’ 1,577 yards and 20 TDs. Brandon Allen supplied the Hogs with a solid passing game. The Hogs once again showed resiliency, bouncing back from a three-game losing streak at the beginning of the season. While the SEC record was outstanding playing in the nation’s top division, the non-conference losses at home to Toledo and Texas Tech were disturbing. Bielema’s physical style of play and his in-your-face demeanor have made him popular with Razorbacks fans.
Future outlook: The Razorbacks have gone from 0-8 to 2-6 to 5-3 in SEC play in Bielema’s three seasons. The Hogs have shown they can hold their own against the best teams in the SEC. Arkansas now owns two straight victories over LSU and has played tight games against Alabama the past two seasons. Year 4 will be a test. Arkansas loses four key players on offense — Allen, Collins, star TE Hunter Henry and dominating tackle Sebastian Tretola. They also lost offensive line coach Sam Pittman to Georgia. Bielema’s most pressing task is to find a successor to Allen, whose brother Austin was his backup. Southern Cal transfer Ricky Town may be more talented, and he’s had a year to adjust to the system. Arkansas’ recruiting seems to be on an uptick. Home-state DE McTelvin Agim, a five-star prospect, should help fix a glaring weakness (only 13 sacks) last season. Running back Devwah Whaley is one of five four-star recruits. The Hogs face a tough game in Week 2 at Texas Christian. But the conference schedule sets up well with the toughest teams — Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU and Florida — all coming to Fayetteville.
BUTCH JONES
Record (SEC record): 21-17 (10-14)
Accomplishments in three two seasons: The Volunteers can compete with any team in the conference. That wasn’t true when Jones took over. The biggest remaining problem is the Vols still haven’t shown they can beat the best teams in the conference. Losses to Florida and Arkansas last season were disappointing, the first costing the Vols the East title. The losses to Oklahoma and Alabama were missed opportunities for signature victories. Tennessee should continue to build on last season’s six-game winning streak, which included a blowout victory over No. 13 Northwestern in the Outback Bowl. Quarterback Joshua Dobbs and RB Jalen Hurd, the team’s two offensive stars, return with seven other starters on that side of the ball. The defense, which got a boost when Jalen Reeves-Maybin opted to come back rather than enter the NFL Draft, got another when Jones convinced Bob Shoop to leave Penn State to take over as defensive coordinator. Though Dobbs enters his last season, the Vols seem to have found a successor in the current recruiting class with four-star dual threat Jarrett Guarantano. The Vols’ fast finishes the past two seasons have Big Orange fans excited about the future. Jones has rebuilt the Vols with three highly touted recruiting classes. This year’s recruiting class is smaller with fewer headliners.
Future outlook: It’s time for the Vols to start winning. Maybe it was too early in Jones’ rebuilding project to expect a division title, but the Vols missed great opportunities in the coach’s first three years with traditional powers Florida and Georgia slumping and dumping their coaches in successive seasons. There’s no excuses in 2016 — Jones’ highly touted recruiting classes should be ready. Dobbs is one of the top two returning quarterbacks in the conference and the best in the East. The schedule is easier, too. The top non-conference game will be a long-anticipated game with Virginia Tech at Bristol Motor Speedway. The Hokies are coming off a mediocre 7-6 season and the loss of legendary coach Frank Beamer. The key for the Vols will be their passing game. Dobbs needs to improve his downfield throws and a top-flight receiver needs to emerge. The success of the season will be determined early with a four-game stretch featuring home games against Florida and Alabama with games at Georgia and Texas A&M in between. Guarantano was an important pickup, giving the Vols a talented heir apparent to Dobbs.
GUS MALZAHN
Record (SEC record): 27-13 (13-11)
Accomplishments in first two seasons: Only two years ago, Malzahn was the toast of the Plains, leading the Tigers to the SEC Championship and the national title game with Nick Marshall returning at quarterback for another season. Since then, the Tigers have stalled. In 2015, the surprise inability of QB Jeremy Johnson to make plays caught the Tigers with no answers on offense. Malzahn tried freshman Sean White and he didn’t do any better. The bright spot was the performance of RB Peyton Barber, who rushed for 1,016 hard-fought yards and 13 TDs. To Malzahn’s credit, the Tigers finished strong with a convincing defensive effort to beat Memphis in the Birmingham Bowl after a solid effort in an Iron Bowl loss to Alabama. Malzahn scored a coup last year, picking up Will Muschamp as his defensive coordinator. This year, he added expensive, much-traveled Kevin Steele. Malzahn has produced three top 10 recruiting classes and the upcoming class is close. But the key to success this season is improving the quarterback play. Former Florida State reserve John Franklin and four-star dual threat Woody Barrett should have an opportunity to win the starting spot. Malzahn recruited three four-star targets for the passing game — receivers Kyle Davis and Eli Stove and 6-5, 250-pound TE Landon Rice.
Future outlook: The Tigers took a step back in 2015. Finding an outstanding quarterback is essential in Malzahn’s hurry-up, spread attack. Without dramatic improvement, they won’t contend in the West. Muschamp didn’t seem to make much of an impact in his only season as defensive coordinator. The Tigers played their best defensive game of the year without Muschamp in the Birmingham Bowl. The pressure is on. Nick Saban has won national titles in four of the last seven years. Auburn is one of the other three teams to win a national title over that span, but the Crimson Tide’s success keeps the bar exceptionally high for Malzahn, whose incoming class includes several potential playmakers. Besides the receivers, the class has commitments from four-star defensive ends Marlon Davidson and Paul James as well as four-star CB John Broussard. Auburn must find a quarterback fast. Clemson with Heisman finalist Deshaun Watson at quarterback, travels to Jordan-Hare Stadium for the season opener.
MARK STOOPS
Record (SEC record): 12-24 (4-20)
Accomplishments in first two seasons: The Wildcats are on the brink. Next season looms as a make-or-break season for Stoops, whose 2015 team was in position to go to the program’s first bowl game in five seasons, needing only to beat Vanderbilt or Louisville down the stretch. The Wildcats squandered several chances in the first half against the Commodores in a humbling loss. They blew a 21-point lead in a devastating, season-ending defeat to the Cardinals. Patrick Towles, who played well early in the season, struggled down the stretch, lost his job to freshman Drew Barker, then transferred. The Wildcats did notch their first conference victory in four seasons over Missouri and held on for an early-season victory at South Carolina, which had beaten ACC Coastal champion North Carolina in its season opener. Kentucky had its chances — the Wildcats also lost 14-9 to East champion Florida, which was rolling at the time before Will Grier’s suspension. The Wildcats seemed to run out of gas after losing a much-anticipated Thursday night home game to Auburn. Kentucky has developed a capable rushing attack under Stoops. Bam Williams ran for 855 yards with an average of 7.1 yards per carry. Stoops has improved Kentucky’s talent level and made the Wildcats more competitive. Yet his program hasn’t turned the corner.
Future outlook: Stoops has recruited better than could be expected, especially in his home state. He’s on target for a third straight top 30 recruiting class. Barker, another four-state recruit from the Bluegrass State, could be a cornerstone for the next three years. Williams is one of the SEC’s top returning running backs, though he’s had some off-the-field issues with the coaching staff. A lack of playmakers on both sides of the ball has prevented the Wildcats from making the jump to bowl eligibility. Stoops has recruited solid players at the line of scrimmage. Kentucky has an opportunity. Traditional powers Florida and Georgia are in transition without solid quarterbacks. Missouri, Georgia and South Carolina have new coaching staffs and quarterback uncertainty. Only long-time nemesis Tennessee appears solid on both sides of the ball. Stoops is depending on new offensive coordinator Eddie Gran to fine-tune Barker’s play. The Wildcats need to find a big-play receiver to keep the defense from gearing up to stop Williams. Stoops’ incoming recruiting class includes three home-state, four-star prospects, highlighted by offensive linemen Drake Jackson and Landon Young. The Wildcats have two soft non-conference games, but they draw Alabama on the road. Crossover foe Mississippi State should be rebuilding. If Kentucky can beat the bottom half of the East, it should earn an elusive bowl bid.
