The Fearless Prediction typically does hours and hours of painstaking research, bringing in the world’s most well-respected mathematicians to assist in the selection of these games. It’s a process… and one we have never taken lightly. That said, we have known who we were going to pick in the Tennessee-Florida game well before the 2025 season even began.
Yes. We’ve seen this movie before.
In both 1995 and 1997, Tennessee featured one of the greatest QBs in the history of the sport… and lost at Florida.
In 1999, Tennessee was coming off 2 straight SEC titles and a national championship… and lost at Florida.
In 2005, Tennessee saw its punter go rogue… and lost at Florida.
In both 2015 and 2017, Tennessee gave up go-ahead 63-yard TDs in the waning moments… and lost at Florida.
Since 1977, the Vols have played against Florida in Gainesville 19 times… and won twice. Only the 2001 and 2003 Tennessee teams could break through, thanks to a QB who never seemed to get rattled in Casey Clausen, and a roster filled to the brim with NFL talent. This test in futility is now at 10 straight losses for the Vols.
Tennessee has finally gotten on a level playing surface when these teams meet in Knoxville, winning 3 of the last 5 at Neyland Stadium. But even those games are close, with the last 2 wins decided on the final play each time. It doesn’t matter if it’s Phillip Fulmer or Lane “Sing Rocky Top all night long at Florida” Kiffin or Derek Dooley or Butch Jones or Jeremy Pruitt or Josh Heupel as head coach, Tennessee just doesn’t win down there.
In fact, the Vols rarely play close to their potential, while Florida goes to another level. When these teams play in Gainesville, the Vols look like 2021 UMass while Florida looks like 2001 Miami.
But why is that the case? Yes, Florida had some really good squads under Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer, but quite often Tennessee has had as much talent, if not more than its (former) SEC East rivals. For whatever reason, Tennessee plays tight at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Some of those games, especially the 2015 and 2017 matchups, should have been won by the Vols, but Butch Jones panicked time and time again. Remember “The Chart?” Tennessee fans certainly remember “The Chart.”
It doesn’t matter if most of Tennessee’s roster wasn’t even born yet the last time the Vols won in Gainesville. That history hangs over the program, especially with #VolTwitter. Last weekend, when Florida nearly pulled the upset in Oxford, social media was loud with Tennessee lamenting how Florida finally looks decent just in time for Tennessee to come to town. This game haunts the soul of Vols fans.
Tennessee is 7-3 and out of the Playoff hunt (even if SEC commissioner Greg Sankey thinks the Vols are 1 of 8 SEC teams that should get into the field of 12). You can make a case that if a couple of bounces go their way, this is a 9-1 Vols team. On the other hand, Florida is 3-7, fired its head coach a few weeks ago, and got destroyed by Kentucky 38-7 in Lexington, only 2 weeks after Tennessee destroyed Kentucky 56-34 in Lexington.
The Vols are coming off a fairly lackluster 42-9 win over New Mexico State. QB Joey Aguilar is putting up historic numbers, completing 66% of his passes for 2,941 yards and 22 TDs, although the 10 INTs are troubling. Tennessee has the 2nd-ranked offense in the nation in both scoring, at 43.4 points per game, and total offense, at 495 yards per game. WR Chris Brazzell is a matchup nightmare with 873 receiving yards and 8 scores this season. DeSean Bishop has been solid, rushing for 770 yards and 10 TDs.
Florida’s offense? Not good. Tied for 111th in scoring with 20.8 points per game and ranked 106th in total offense at 339.5 yards per game. Sophomore QB D.J. Lagway has not lived to expectations, throwing more INTs (13) than TD passes (12), while averaging less than 200 passing yards per game. Sophomore Jadan Baugh has made a jump this season, with nearly 81 rushing yards per game to go with 6 scores, but overall this isn’t an offense which should strike fear into UT DC Tim Banks.
The problem? Tennessee’s defense is also not good. The Vols are giving up 28.9 points per game (95th nationally) and 390.3 yards per game (85th nationally). They can still get to the opposing QB, averaging 3.3 sacks per game, tied for 4th best in the country. But overall this isn’t a defense which should strike fear into UF OC Russ Callaway.
RELATED: Check out our favorite TN sports betting apps to get in on the action for Saturday night’s big game.
The Gators’ defense is led by LB Myles Graham, who has 60 tackles this season. They are allowing 366.3 yards per game (63rd in the FBS) and 23.6 points per game (tied for 62nd in the FBS).
Florida isn’t going to play in a bowl game. The Gators’ fans are tracking planes, hoping that Lane Kiffin decides to show up and save their program. Tennessee still has a shot at winning 10 games for the third time in 4 years, something that hasn’t been done since 2004. On paper, it’s Tennessee’s time to snap this losing streak.
Back in 2022, with Tennessee suffering a 15-game losing streak to Alabama, the Fearless Prediction said that we needed to see Tennessee beat Alabama before we’d ever pick Tennessee to beat Alabama. Well, Tennessee beat Alabama. So picking the Vols to win that game isn’t a weird thought these days.
But when it comes to Tennessee-Florida games in Gainesville… we need to see Tennessee leading Florida on the scoreboard when the clock strikes zero and the teams, the refs, and fans and maybe even the cleaning crews have left the stadium. Until then, we just can’t live with ourselves if we make the call for the Vols. We have decades of research telling us what’s going to happen Saturday night.
Fearless Prediction: Florida 25, Tennessee 23
Mark Nagi has covered Tennessee athletics for over 20 years. He is the author of “Decade of Dysfunction,” an in-depth look at all that led to the crazy coaching search of 2017 at Tennessee. The book is available on Amazon.
