The season might only be in its early stages, but the Fearless Prediction is already in mid-season form following back to back correct prognostications. But this is when things get tricky. On Saturday, SEC play begins as Tennessee hosts Georgia.
The Tennessee-UGA series stretches all the way back to 1899, a 5-0 win for the Vols in Knoxville. Four years later, Georgia returned the favor, winning 5-0. The Fearless Prediction doesn’t anticipate another 5-0 result this time around.
We might only be 2 games into the campaign, and the competition might not exactly have been the tops in the sport, but Tennessee’s offense looks a lot more like the 2022 version than the 2024 group. The Vols are averaging 605 yards of offense a game, second-best in the FBS. They’re scoring 58.5 points per game, fourth-best nationally. QB Joey Aguilar is running the show like the veteran he is, despite only being on the UT campus since the spring. He’s completing 66% of his passes with 5 TD tosses and no INTs.
The Vols look like they’ve won their “trade” with UCLA.
Going into the season, Tennessee’s wide receiving corps was questioned, but so far they’ve been making some big plays. Chris Brazzell II, Braylon Staley and Mike Matthews have a combined 31 catches for 461 yards and 4 TDs. Another trio is turning heads as well in the running game. Star Thomas, DeSean Bishop and Peyton Lewis have combined for 368 rushing yards and 6 scores. Aguilar is commanding a balanced offensive attack.
As for the Tennessee defense, it’s no surprise that junior LB Arion Carter is the team leader in tackles with 13, including 2 tackles for loss. Redshirt senior DB Jalen McMurray leads the secondary with 10 tackles, second-best on the team.
But Tennessee will be without its 2 best cornerbacks against Georgia. Jermod McCoy is still recovering from a torn ACL he suffered last January, and Rickey Gibson will also be on the sidelines due to injury. This puts pressure on Colorado/Auburn transfer Colton Hood and true freshman Ty Redmond, who have each played very well this season. Hood has 5 pass breakups, best in the SEC. Redmond has 6 tackles and 3 pass breakups.
As for the Georgia Bulldogs, they look like their typical selves defensively. Currently 8th in the FBS in total defense (allowing 201.5 ypg) and 9th in scoring defense (allowing 6.5 ppg). They are allowing only 61.5 rushing yards a game. Their front 7 is a force, led by two junior LBs. Raylen Wilson leads the team in tackles with 14 and C.J. Allen is second with 11 tackles.
But UGA is coming off a fairly lackluster 28-6 win over Austin Peay. QB Gunner Stockton is more mobile than his predecessor Carson Beck, but not as willing or able to consistently challenge secondaries. He’s completing 69% of his passes, mostly only a few yards from the line of scrimmage. Stockton now has 4 starts for the Bulldogs, but this will be his first road game, in front of what will be a raucous “Checker Neyland” crowd.
Zachariah Branch and Colbie Young are Stockton’s go-to options, combining for 15 catches for 218 yards this season. The running game with Nate Frazier, Dwight Phillips Jr. and Chauncey Bowens is more than capable, with 320 rushing yards and 5 scores among that trio.
Back in 1990s, the Vols owned this series with Georgia, eventually winning 9 in a row. When the good times are rolling, they feel like they will never end. I was at Tennessee’s 22-3 victory in Athens, and watched as dejected Bulldogs fans walked out of Sanford Stadium with a few minutes remaining. A Tennessee fan held up a placard with the number 8 on it, signifying UT’s 8th-straight win in the series. He turned the sign sideways and yelled, “We beat you infinity times!”
Right now, Georgia is the team riding an 8-game winning streak over Tennessee, and none of those games have been close. The Bulldogs have outscored the Vols 303-104 during that stretch, an average beating of 37.9-13. Vols head coach Josh Heupel has had a lot of success against all comers in his 4+ years at the helm, especially at Neyland Stadium. But beating Kirby Smart is something he hasn’t been able to accomplish. They haven’t been able to score more than 17 points against the Bulldogs in his 4 previous meetings.
There is a lot to like about this Tennessee football team, and they are legit contenders to get back into the College Football Playoff. But the Fearless Prediction has been burned before, and won’t be fooled again. We need to see Tennessee win a game against Georgia… before we pick Tennessee to win a game against Georgia.
Fearless Prediction: Georgia 31, Tennessee 21
Mark Nagi has covered Tennessee athletics for over 20 years. He is the author of “Decade of Dysfunction,” an in-depth look at all that led to the crazy coaching search of 2017 at Tennessee. The book is available on Amazon.
