The 2025 college football season is now (sadly) past the halfway point, and the Fearless Prediction has yet to swallow the bitter pill of defeat. This week we look to keep our record unblemished as we tackle Tennessee’s road trip to Kentucky.
For the second-straight week, it’s a border battle, and the Vols are much happier to be heading north for this one. Their journey south was another exercise in futility. Tennessee’s 37-20 loss at Alabama was the 11th-straight time that it has fallen in Tuscaloosa. Everything that went right for the Vols during the first 6 games of the season was nowhere to be seen against the Crimson Tide.
QB Joey Aguilar was sacked 4 times in that game. Tennessee’s offensive line had allowed 4 sacks all year to that point. Tennessee’s defense, which was leading the nation in sacks, didn’t record a single sack of Alabama QB Ty Simpson. The Vols’ offense, tops in the nation in points scored going into that game, was held more than 4 TDs off its average. Tennessee’s offense actually gave Alabama 9 points in the form of a safety on a brutal intentional grounding toss by Aguilar, and then a brutal goal-line throw by Aguilar which turned into a pick-6 at the end of the first half. Tennessee was also penalized 10 times in this game, mistakes which damaged multiple drives. Head coach Josh Heupel once again made some very questionable calls, including going for 2 (and failing) early in the third quarter while down 10 points (even Butch Jones’s chart doesn’t say to go for 2 at that juncture).
Nationally, the Vols are still ranked second in scoring offense (tied with Oregon at 44.1 points per game) and fifth in total offense (511 yards per game), but the Alabama performance was troubling. It was a lost opportunity… however, Tennessee still (probably? possibly? maybe?) controls its own destiny in terms of the College Football Playoff. Win out and the Vols would end up 10-2 for the second year in a row. That’s 10-2 while playing an SEC schedule, with your 2 losses against teams (UGA, Bama) who will likely each be in the field of 12. That is a compelling résumé for the committee to consider.
So, the sooner Tennessee can put the Alabama loss aside, the better, and there’s no better way to do that than against the team you have dominated for decades. Since 1985, Tennessee has played Kentucky 40 times, with the Vols winning 37 of those games and losing on only 3 occasions.
What do we know about this year’s Wildcats? Well, at 2-4 UK is still looking for its first SEC win. Last weekend, it took Texas to overtime before falling 16-13. In that game, Kentucky’s defense allowed only 179 yards of offense, by far its best performance of the season. Senior LB Alex Amari Jr. leads the team with 39 tackles and is second on the team with 3.5 sacks.
Offensively, UK is only gaining 342.2 yards per game, 103rd nationally. Scoring offense? Not much better at 22.5 points per game, 102nd in the FBS. But there is reason for optimism after redshirt freshman QB Cutter Boley had a big day against the Longhorns, completing 31 for 39 passes for 258 yards, while collecting 45 rushing yards. RB Seth McGowan, who came to Kentucky via Oklahoma, Butler CC and New Mexico State, is gaining nearly 80 rushing yards a game. Alabama transfer WR Kendrick Law leads the Cats with 22 catches, but for only 199 yards. Averaging 9 yards per reception won’t strike fear into the Vols’ secondary, even in its injured state.
Kentucky football is not in a good place right now. The Wildcats have lost 9 straight SEC games, and you can’t read about head coach Mark Stoops without reading the word “buyout.” If he’s fired, UK is believed to owe him approximately $38 million. Considering the Wildcats’ situation these days, a win over Tennessee would make their season.
Tennessee is still licking its wounds from the Bama loss, and the Vols have proven to often be a shaky group away from the friendly confines of Neyland Stadium under Heupel. But in this era of college football, where the only constant is change, there has to be something we can count on… right?
Fearless Prediction: Tennessee 31, Kentucky 21
Mark Nagi has covered Tennessee athletics for over 20 years. He is the author of “Decade of Dysfunction,” an in-depth look at all that led to the crazy coaching search of 2017 at Tennessee. The book is available on Amazon.
