Fearless Prediction: Tennessee vs. Mississippi State

The Fearless Prediction is perfect so far this season, defying the odds and saddening the haters.

But this weekend it feels like we’ve got a tricky matchup to prognosticate as Tennessee heads to Starkville to play Mississippi State.

The Vols are 3-1, winning the games convincingly that that should be winning convincingly, while losing a heartbreaker against the current standard bearer in the league. One third into the season, Tennessee is a contender to get back into the College Football Playoff.

Let’s dive in to why the Vols are having early offensive success. While the 2024 Vols offense got the job done with a strong rushing attack, the 2025 Vols are putting up stats not seen since their historic 2022 campaign. Tennessee is ranked 6th nationally in both total offense (568.7 yards per game) and scoring offense (52.7 points per game).

In 2022 it was 6th-year college QB Hendon Hooker running the show. In 2025, it is 7th-year college QB Joey Aguilar controlling things. Now, there’s another conversation to be had about the appeal of picking up experienced QBs in the portal, letting them get their feet wet at smaller schools so they can be better prepared years later on the big stage. Aguilar certainly has proven he’s ready for prime time. Tennessee’s basically lost Nico Iamaleava and gained Aguilar… for less money, the greatest southern deal since the Louisiana Purchase.

Aguilar is completing 67% of his passes while averaging 281 yards through the air per game (while basically playing only the first half in the ETSU and UAB wins).

Tennessee has seen marked improvement from receivers Chris Brazzell II, Braylen Staley and Mike Matthews, the running game hasn’t missed much following the departure of Dylan Sampson, and the entire unit moves the football much more efficiently under Aguilar’s leadership.

Tennessee is ranked 85th nationally in total defense. Some key injuries aren’t helping matters, and this group has to get healthy in order to be more competitive as the schedule picks up a notch in the second half of the season. It’s no surprise that junior LB Arion Carter leads the team in tackles with 32.

The Vols are back in the national college football conversation. They have been for a few years and there’s no reason to believe that’s going to change. But this Saturday? If you look up “trap game” in the college football dictionary, you’ll see Tennessee vs. Mississippi State in the opening lines. Tennessee has a bye week coming up after this game. The Vols still have Alabama and Oklahoma coming up in the next few weeks.

But maybe the trappiest part of this game for the Vols? Mississippi State looks better than expected. The Bulldogs are 4-0, which includes a victory over Arizona State. Sixth-year QB Blake Shapen, a Baylor transfer, is completing 66% os his passes, throwing for over 220 yards per game. Brenen Thompson and Georgia transfer Anthony Evans III have combined for 38 catches, 581 yards and 5 TDs. The rushing attack isn’t very stout, but South Alabama transfer Fluff Bothwell is averaging 68 yards on the ground per game.

Defensively, MSU safeties Issac Smith and Jahron Manning and LB Nic Mitchell each have at least 21 tackles.

Is this a team that is going to be in the mix for what would be their first SEC championship in 84 years? No. Are they going to be more of a problem for SEC opponents than they have been in recent years? So far it looks that way.

Even though Mississippi State is nowhere near the toughest game on Tennessee’s schedule, there is reason for concern. Winning on the road in the SEC is never easy. Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel’s best SEC road win remains its 2022 victory over LSU in Baton Rouge. Other than that, the Vols just haven’t answered the bell against a good opponent.

But in this case, I just think that Tennessee’s roster advantage is too much for Mississippi State to overcome. The Vols have more talent in every aspect of the game.

Fearless Prediction: Tennessee 34, Mississippi State 24

Mark Nagi

Mark Nagi has covered Tennessee athletics for over 20 years. He is the author of “Decade of Dysfunction,” an in-depth look at all that led to the crazy coaching search of 2017 at Tennessee. The book is available on Amazon.