The Fearless Prediction was stunned to see the Vols beat Florida in Gainesville for the first time since the Calvin Coolidge Administration. OK, it was only since George W. Bush’s first term, but 22 years can feel like a century when seeing your rivals celebrate time and time again.
It took 11 tries, but Tennessee was finally able to sing Rocky Top “all night long.” Now they have to put those good times in their rear view because a more stern test is on deck, with Vanderbilt making the short trip east to Knoxville in the regular-season finale.
A year ago, the Commodores had the opportunity to end the Vols’ Playoff hopes, but Tennessee won 36-23 in a game not nearly as close as the final score indicated. This season, the roles are reversed. Barring total chaos, the Vols will not be in the CFP, even with a win on Saturday afternoon. However, if Vandy wins, there’s a pretty good chance it’ll make the field of 12.
It’s no secret that the 9-2 Commodores will go as far as QB Diego Pavia will take them. Pavia has had a monster season, completing 72% of his passes for 2,924 yards and 26 TDs, while rushing for 661 yards and 8 scores. Those numbers, along with Pavia’s self-promotional efforts, could earn him a trip to Manhattan as a Heisman finalist. Pavia commands the 9th best scoring offense in the FBS at 38.9 points per game, and the 19th best total offense at 458.2 yards per game.
WRs Eli Stowers, Tre Richardson and Junior Sherrill are each more than capable of moving the football down field, combining for 134 receptions, 1,894 yards and 16 TDs. On the ground, Sedrick Alexander averages 40.5 yards per game, but is second on the team to Pavia’s 60 rushing yards per game.
Defensively, the Commodores have some playmakers, led by junior LB Bryan Longwell’s 62 tackles and 7.5 tackles for loss. Edge rusher Miles Capers has 9.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks.
As for the Vols’ offense, they continue to impress, now ranked 4th nationally in both scoring offense at 42.3 points per game and in total offense with 491.1 yards per game. QB Joey Aguilar has been so much better than Heupel would have dreamed of, completing 67% of his passes for 3,145 yards and 23 TDs. He’s assisted by a trio of really good WRs in Chris Brazzell II (56 catches, 926 yards, 8 TDs), Braylon Staley (58 catches, 771 yards, 6 TDs) and Mike Matthews (44 catches, 712 yards, 4 TDs). It’s the first time in the history of “Wide Receiver U” that 3 Tennessee WRs have had at least 700 receiving yards in the same season.
RB DeSean Bishop is only 114 yards away from 1,000 on the ground this season.
The 8-3 Vols are coming off their most complete performance of the season in that 31-11 win over Florida. Defensively, Tennessee’s LBs were terrific. Jeremiah Telander is coming off perhaps his best game as a Vol, making 10 tackles against the Gators. Arion Carter, fighting through injury, had 1.5 tackles for loss against Florida, and sits second on the team in tackles with 69. Redshirt freshman Edwin Spillman had 7 tackles and now leads the team with 72 tackles.
While the Vols have only allowed a combined 20 points the last 2 games, this defense is still ranked 74th in the FBS in total defense (378.5 yards per game) and tied for 83rd in scoring defense (27.3 points allowed per game). Pavia will have opportunities to attack, but remember that this is a Tennessee defense that can create some havoc, with 35 sacks and 6 TDs this season.
Tennessee’s coaches, players and fans are aware of Pavia’s trash talk, and would like nothing better than to shut him up. This is the first time this game is being played while are both teams are nationally ranked. It’s the biggest game in the history of the Tennessee-Vanderbilt rivalry, which now reaches 119 games. This would be a program defining victory for Vandy and head coach Clark Lea. For the Vols, it keeps alive a chance to win 10 games for the third time in 4 seasons.
This should be a close game. Neyland Stadium is one of the loudest environments in college football, but the Vols have lost twice there this season. We don’t anticipate a third.
Fearless Prediction: Tennessee 35, Vanderbilt 31
Mark Nagi has covered Tennessee athletics for over 20 years. He is the author of “Decade of Dysfunction,” an in-depth look at all that led to the crazy coaching search of 2017 at Tennessee. The book is available on Amazon.
