Alabama vs. Oklahoma: Final thoughts on the Orange Bowl Playoff semifinal
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I have thoughts. Many, many thoughts.
That’s what happens when you get a month to dissect a matchup involving two of the most high-profile teams in the sport.
So instead of depriving you of those thoughts with one specific angle, I thought it would be fitting to give you, reader of this article, all of my thoughts ahead of Saturday night’s Orange Bowl. Some will make sense, some will contradict each other and some will be unpopular.
Whatever the case, these are my final thoughts ahead of the Alabama vs. Oklahoma Playoff semifinal showdown:
Is there a little Lincoln Riley gamesmanship?
Kyler Murray could indeed be sick. Don’t get me wrong. I’m not guaranteeing that the Oklahoma quarterback missed his media availability Wednesday without reason.
Having said that, the skeptic in me says it’s never that simple. I almost wonder if a slightly ill Murray or even a healthy Murray was held out of media availability just to make Alabama players question whether he will be at full strength.
Is that crazy? Perhaps, but consider this. Alabama is a 2-touchdown favorite, yet it has all the ammo in the world to shut down Murray after he won the Heisman Trophy over Tua Tagovailoa. I don’t think that’s lost on Riley. Would it be foolish to twist the narrative a little bit? Not necessarily.
The last thing Riley wants to see is a vengeful Alabama defense. Maybe, just maybe, he decided to give his quarterback a break from the media and just plant the slightest bit of doubt in the opposing defense’s mind that his star quarterback is at 100 percent.
If that is the case, there’s nothing wrong with a little gamesmanship ahead of the biggest game of the year.
As for the health of the other quarterback …
I’ve had this thought for the second half of the season with Tagovailoa and Saban. The Alabama coach is sort of like the hard-nosed dad who sees his kid take a slight fall and he tells him “just rub some dirt on it.”
That’s not my way of doubting the severity of Tagovailoa’s ankle/knee injuries the past couple months. But I do think that’s been Saban’s approach with handling his all-world quarterback. It’s almost like by declaring early on in that process that Tagovailoa will be fine, Saban is trying to give his young quarterback confidence that he’s not quite as injured as he might think.
Again, that’s just my thought. We might not find out the severity of Tagovailoa’s injuries in 2018 until after the season, but Saban knows. He also sees him in practice every day, which is probably the source of his “you’re gonna be fine” approach.
In a win-or-go-home game, though, I wouldn’t be surprised if Saban had a quicker trigger than usual with Tagovailoa. That is, if he recognizes his quarterback isn’t playing like he’s fine, we could see Jalen Hurts in the second half.
You know, just in case the plot wasn’t think enough already.
It’s not disrespectful to say Oklahoma’s defense is really bad
I was watching ESPN when I saw a report from Laura Rutledge that Oklahoma players hear the noise about their bad defense. Oh, do they not like when people say their defense is bad? Well, how else would you describe a pass defense that ranks dead last in FBS?
Certainly not average or decent. In fact, bad is putting it mildly. How about horrendous? Putrid? Porous?
I love that players just think we in the media make up these narratives. Nah, man. We just watch you fork over 40 points against Kansas and make our opinions off that.
And yeah, part of it is that they play in the Big 12, which is where high-powered spread offenses are king. But goodness. This team fired its defensive coordinator midseason and gave up 40-plus points in each of its final 4 regular season games. It’s not disrespectful to say they aren’t good.
You want us to believe in you? Hold a Power 5 team under 21 points more than once, maybe. Then we’ll talk.
But it is disrespectful to say Oklahoma’s offense is just a product of the Big 12
Yeah, don’t be fooled. The Sooners are legit offensively. Murray, Hollywood Brown and CeeDee Lamb can take the top off any defense in America (assuming Brown is at full strength). That includes Alabama’s. To think that they only put up the nation’s top offense because of the conference they played in would be a mistake.
Oklahoma is getting that 28 points. To me, that seems like a lock. Riley is too good at getting guys open in space and keeping defenses off-balanced for his group to have some 14-point effort. That won’t happen.
And while he won’t admit it, Saban knows that the Sooners are going to get theirs. That’s just what they do. It’s just getting some stops and capitalizing when those small windows open.
That Quinnen Williams soundbite was my favorite
By now, you’ve seen this:
Here we go ? Asked @AlabamaFTBL stud DT @QuinnenD1 about @TheKylerMurray and Quinnen almost spoke his mind about the @HeismanTrophy winner: "I feel like Kyler Murray is not… nah, I'm good." #Sooners #CrimsonTide #OrangeBowl pic.twitter.com/Cr03Zu2RP8
— Jeff Kolb (@JeffKolbFOX4) December 27, 2018
You could literally see Williams going through the thought process of “what happens if I say the rest of this sentence?” Rare it is to see someone swallow the word vomit. Props to the All-American for holding the bulletin board material down.
We’ll never know what Williams was going to say, though based on the fact that he stopped himself, it’s safe to say he wasn’t going to say, “Murray is not getting the respect he deserves.”
Can someone like this provide any motivation to the Oklahoma locker room? Probably not. Well, unless they play a game of Mad Libs to fill in Williams’ blank.
The height factor actual matters
Speaking of Williams, he’ll obviously play a major part in deciding how comfortable the 5-9/10 Murray gets. While I’m not one to dismiss a quarterback’s abilities because of his height — or lack there of — I do think Murray’s height against that Alabama front will be significant.
Raekwon Davis is 6-7, Isaiah Buggs is 6-5 and Williams is almost 6-4. Even if they can’t get to Murray, just getting a hand up to cause a deflection could slow the Oklahoma offense down. We all know that no defensive lineman in America is better at pressuring the quarterback than Williams. If Murray is dealing with hands in his face all night, he won’t settle in like he did throughout 2018.
I think Alabama’s defensive line and its ability to fluster Murray without bringing pressure is going to be crucial in this game. Hits, hurries and deflections on the elusive quarterback could get Alabama off the field on third down, and it could be the determining factor by game’s end.
A Saban stat I can’t ignore
Since arriving at Alabama, Saban is 6-1 in games in which he had multiple weeks to prepare for a game with national title hopes still on the line. The only time he lost one of those games was of course the 2014 Sugar Bowl Playoff semifinal against Ohio State.
In the 3 semifinal games since that loss, Saban’s teams won by a combined score of 86-13. Is Oklahoma better than 2015 Michigan State, 2016 Washington and 2017 Clemson? Possibly. The Sooners clearly have better offenses than all of those groups.
But with a month to prepare, it’s hard to argue against the G.O.A.T.
My original thought hasn’t changed
I had the same thought that tons of other people did when watching the Heisman Trophy. After Tagovailoa lost to Murray, that all but clinched Alabama’s semifinal victory. Just seeing the way Alabama players reacted to that, I think that was all the motivation they needed not to come out flat against the Sooners. Tagovailoa’s Heisman snub matters to the guys in that locker room.
So will it be a little like 2005 with Vince Young losing the Heisman to Reggie Bush? Maybe, though unlike Texas, Alabama has been No. 1 as the overwhelming title favorite all year.
There’s a reason for that. This Crimson Tide team put together one of the great regular seasons in college football history. They had their fair share of injuries and reasons to slip up. That didn’t happen, though.
This team has depth, balance and discipline like few we’ve seen in this sport this century. Saturday serves as a reminder of that.
MORE ORANGE BOWL COVERAGE
Jalen Hurts: Why I didn’t quit, didn’t leave and didn’t stop believing
The Ultimate Orange Bowl Preview: Oklahoma will score, but can it score enough?
Saivion Smith: The long, twisting journey to the Playoff
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
