First and 10: What’s at stake for LSU and Alabama? Only everything

1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …

Auburn took a shot, but it didn’t last. Georgia did, too – and is still taking swings.
LSU had an opportunity nearly 10 years ago, and whiffed in a rematch. And now the Tigers get another chance.

Another chance to supplant Alabama as the king of the SEC.

“These are the games you coach and play for,” LSU coach Ed Orgeron said. “The big ones.”

Yet there’s a twist this time: The game of the season has arrived, and there couldn’t be more uncertainty surrounding No. 1 LSU vs. No. 2 Alabama.

The Tua factor. The SEC race. The College Football Playoff race.

All that, and another chance for LSU to step in the box and take a big ol’ swing. Because unlike the last time LSU arrived in Tuscaloosa in 2011 with the same potential, this one doesn’t include zero help from the quarterback position and almost certainly won’t end with the teams combining for 15 points after overtime.

It also could be the beginning of something big for LSU, and maybe – just maybe – a move toward becoming the first team with a real opportunity to knock Alabama off a perch it has proudly owned since 2009.

Even when Auburn won it all in 2010, or when the Tigers got to the BCS National Championship Game in 2013, or when Georgia won the SEC and played in the CFP National Championship Game in 2017, it never really felt like Alabama was threatened long-term.

Saban won national titles, then followed up with recruiting national titles. Since 2009, his prolific success has forced out some of the greatest coaches in the modern SEC era, including 4 national championship coaches (Urban Meyer, Les Miles, Gene Chizik, Steve Spurrier).

His teams have run off the beloved (Mark Richt), and the hot young phenoms (Hugh Freeze, Lane Kiffin), and they’ve pushed out Saban protégés (Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain, Derek Dooley).

How in the world could LSU coach Ed Orgeron, whose previous head-coaching job in the SEC was an abject failure at Ole Miss, change the way we look at taking down the king of college football? Because this time it’s more than just the one season impact of mercurial quarterback Joe Burrow and passing game coordinator Joe Brady.

It’s Orgeron taking a program that couldn’t get out of its own way when recruiting/developing the most important position on the field, and turning it into the place to be (as long as Brady hangs around).

It’s Orgeron going head-to-head with Saban for elite recruits and winning. It’s Orgeron surrounding himself with an elite staff and giving them long leashes.

Dave Aranda is one of the top 3 defensive coordinators in the nation, and Brady could be a head coach in college football as soon as next season – or in the NFL soon after that.

There’s a reason LSU has risen to No. 2 for the 2020 recruiting class over the past 2 months – battling what many recruiting analysts were calling the greatest class ever assembled by Clemson. Orgeron has always been one of the nation’s best recruiters, but once he had the full weight of LSU behind him, everything changed.

The momentum of last season and the offensive metamorphosis of this season further greased the tracks and set in motion what could be a passing of the SEC mantle on Saturday.

There are so many other factors when assessing potential change at the top of the SEC (more on that later), most notably Saban’s ability to beat back all comers. But this time feels different, especially considering the looming turnover of the Alabama roster in 2020 and LSU’s trending momentum.

Everything is in play Saturday in Tuscaloosa: the lead in the SEC West Division, a spot in the SEC Championship Game and the CFP, and the Heisman Trophy. And yes, Saban’s longstanding dominance of the SEC.

2. The story on Tua

Saban says injured Alabama star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is practicing (he’s not full-go, and likely won’t be), and that it’s a “game-time decision” whether his balky ankle will hold up and allow him to play.

Either way, know this: It won’t be the same Tua. He’ll be hobbled and the Alabama offense will be affected. That means the Tide will need a Herculean effort from (at times) a struggling defense to keep LSU from simply scoring more points than an Alabama offense that was playing better than any in the nation before Tagovailoa’s injury 2 weeks ago.

We saw how different Tagovailoa played last season with a high ankle sprain (same injury last year, different ankle). After playing nearly flawlessly against Oklahoma’s sketchy defense in the CFP semifinals, Clemson’s stout defense arrived in the National Championship Game and Tagovailoa looked lost.

He made poor decisions, couldn’t extend plays by breaking containment and threw 2 interceptions (he also had a fumble that Alabama recovered). It was, far and away, the worst performance of his young career.

Aranda will bring exotic blitz packages to force Tagovailoa off rhythm and timing, and rush smartly to flush him out of the pocket and force him to either try to run on the ankle or make tough throws. The idea more than anything: keep him from throwing comfortably.

3. Changing of the guard, The Epilogue

For years we’ve come up with these grandiose ideas of how Alabama will eventually capitulate and cede power – and it never happens.

But consider this brewing storm: Tagovailoa is hurt, and LSU beats the Tide and the next thing you know, Tagovailoa is more concerned about staying healthy for what could be a top 3 (and maybe No.1 overall) selection in the NFL Draft.

It’s fiscally reckless for him to do anything else, especially with Alabama’s chances of reaching the CFP with a loss to LSU growing slimmer. Unlike previous seasons when the Tide’s nonconference schedule could help them overcome BCS/CFP warts, a win over Duke isn’t cutting it this time around.

Win or lose to LSU, Alabama could be looking at losing its starting quarterback (Tua), tailback (Najee Harris), top 3 receivers (Jerry Jeudy, DeVonta Smith, Henry Ruggs III), 2 offensive linemen and the nucleus of its defense (Raekwon Davis, Anfernee Jennings, Terrell Lewis, Trevon Diggs, Xavier McKinney) to the NFL Draft.

If ever Alabama were truly in a rebuild situation, it might just be the 2020 season. That’s what makes Saturday’s game so important for LSU: The Tide is vulnerable with an injured quarterback and a roster set to turn over in the following season.

If you’re going to get Alabama, better do it now.

4. How the SEC was won

There are 4 teams with legitimate chances of winning their respective divisions and playing in the SEC Championship Game (yes, Aubie, I know you’re not mathematically out). The wild breakdown of how each gets to Atlanta:

SEC West
Alabama (LSU, at Mississippi State, at Auburn):
1. Win out.
2. Lose to LSU, and win out; LSU loses twice.

LSU (at Alabama, at Ole Miss, Arkansas, Texas A&M)
1. Win out.
2. Lose to Alabama, and win out; Alabama loses to Mississippi State and Auburn).

SEC East
Georgia (Missouri, at Auburn, Texas A&M)
1. Win out.
2. Lose to Missouri, and Florida beats Missouri.
3. Can lose to Auburn or Texas A&M, and win out.

Florida (Vanderbilt, at Missouri)
1. Win out, Georgia loses 2 games.

Missouri (at Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, at Arkansas)
1. Win out (and either get no response from NCAA appeal, or NCAA appeal is approved).

The looming question is this: Can the SEC take itself out of the CFP? Absolutely.

If Georgia loses another game and reaches the SEC Championship Game (not such an unlikely scenario), and then beats LSU or Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, the path to the CFP for any SEC team is difficult.

Depending on how the other conferences play out, there might not be a spot for a 2-loss SEC Champion in the scenario. LSU is the only team in the SEC that has a strong enough résumé to make the CFP without winning the conference title (as long as the loss to Alabama is close).

And that brings us to the second looming question: Can the SEC get two teams in the CFP? Absolutely.

If Georgia wins out and wins the SEC over unbeaten Alabama or LSU in a tightly contested game, both teams could make the Playoff.

If Alabama wins in that scenario – after having beaten LSU in a tight game in Tuscaloosa – both Alabama and a 1-loss LSU could make the Playoff. There won’t be another 1-loss team with a better resume than LSU.

5. The Weekly Five

Five games against the spread:

• LSU (+6) at Alabama
• Vanderbilt (+25) at Florida
• Missouri (+14.5) at Georgia
• Tennessee (+2.5) at Kentucky
• Western Kentucky at Arkansas (-2.5)

Last week: 3-2 (.600)
Season: 24-27 (.471)

6. Your tape is your résumé

An NFL scout breaks down the draft prospects of an SEC player. This week: Florida CB CJ Henderson:

“He’s doing exactly what he needs to do: This is his year to make money, and he has turned up his level of play. I could easily see him being the first corner taken in the draft. There’s so much to like about him. He’s aggressive, he can run, he’s long – and he plays even longer, if you can believe that – and he has terrific ball skills.

“He kind of freelanced a lot early in his career, but you could tell the talent was there. He’s fluid, has great instincts and he really knows how to use his hands with leverage and deflection.”

Powered Up

This week’s SEC Power Poll (and one big thing):

1. LSU: In Tigers’ 3 biggest games (Texas, Florida, Auburn), RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire has 357 yards rushing, 4 TDs.

2. Alabama: Who plays QB is of utmost importance. But Tide defense can carry the weight with a big game.

3. Georgia: Too much at stake now; Dawgs can’t stumble in a classic letdown game vs. Missouri.

4. Florida: Gators likely another one or two recruiting classes from becoming legit SEC title contender.

5. Auburn: All that’s left is the Iron Bowl and ruining Alabama’s season.

6. Texas A&M: Don’t let that 6-3 record fool you: Aggies are 3-3 vs. Power 5 teams, and 0-3 vs. P5 teams with winning records.

7. Missouri: Can the Tigers return to early October form and shake up the SEC East race?

8. South Carolina: Tricky game vs. App State, but a must-have if Gamecocks can reach 6 wins and get 15 extra bowl practices.

9. Kentucky: With all the injuries, UK could easily win out and reach 8 wins.

10. Tennessee: Now let’s see if those baby steps at home (South Carolina, UAB) can translate to the road.

11. Mississippi State: Forget about JoeMo leaving for another job, and focus on this team pulling out of a spiral and reaching bowl eligibility.

12. Ole Miss: Every Ole Miss game should come with a non-stop, camera-specific angle of OC Rich Rodriguez in the box.

13. Vanderbilt: The road to saving your job: upset Florida, and finish the season with an FCS cupcake and two 50-50 SEC games.

14. Arkansas: Tell me you can’t see this happening: Chad Morris out, Mike Leach in. Another Power 5 outpost (no offense, Hogs; I love NW Arkansas), another perfect fit for Leach.

8. Ask and you shall receive

Matt: I have no idea why we gave Todd Grantham so much money in the offseason. We should’ve just let him go and got another defensive coordinator. If you can’t stop the run and get off the field on third down in the SEC, you’re going to die in the SEC.

Pete St. James
Miami

Pete: Just a hunch: you weren’t blaming Grantham when his defense was suffocating Auburn. You want to blame something for the loss to Georgia, look at your beloved offense. The Gators were 8 games into the season, and couldn’t run the ball to save their very lives. Fourth and a foot, and Dan Mullen chooses to throw the ball – that should tell you all you need to know about the state of the Florida offensive line.

Mullen walked into a roster that was void of talent on the offensive line, and hasn’t landed an elite recruit in 2 years that could immediately help. In other words, you are what you are until you either recruit better linemen or develop the linemen you have into a more competent group against elite teams.

When you can’t run the ball, the defense pays for it because it’s constantly on the field. Eventually, the Gators simply wore down in the second half. I’m actually shocked they stayed within 7 points of Georgia. That said, all those issues on the line and Florida is primed for its 2nd consecutive 10-win season under Mullen. Considering where the Gators were under Jim McElwain, that should have Florida fans doing backflips.

9. Numbers game

17. Florida State on Sunday fired Willie Taggart 21 games into his contract. Taggart was one of a group of significant Power 5 coaching hires in 2018, including 5 from the SEC. Florida coach Dan Mullen has the most wins (17) of those 12 Power 5 hires. A look at the group and their records:

• Dan Mullen, Florida (17-5)
• Mario Cristobal, Oregon (17-6, including interim bowl L)
• Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M (15-7)
• Herm Edwards, Arizona State (12-9)
• Joe Moorhead, Mississippi State (12-10)
• Willie Taggart, FSU (9-12)
• Jeremy Pruitt, Tennessee (9-12)
• Kevin Sumlin, Arizona (9-12)
• Scott Frost, Nebraska (8-13)
• Chip Kelly, UCLA (7-14)
• Jonathan Smith, Oregon State (6-14)
• Chad Morris, Arkansas (4-17)

The SEC connection reaches beyond the 5 hires. Florida pursued Kelly and Frost before hiring Mullen, and Sumlin was fired by Texas A&M to pave the way for Fisher.

10. Quote to note

The only quote that matters this week, from Alabama coach Nick Saban on injured star QB Tua Tagovailoa: “It’s a game-time decision.”

Matt Hayes

Matt Hayes is a national college football writer for Saturday Down South. You can hear him daily from 12-3 p.m. on 1010XL in Jacksonville. Follow on Twitter @MattHayesCFB