Taken in totality, the last 2 seasons of college football have effectively rewritten the narrative surrounding the Heisman Trophy.
When Jayden Daniels won the award after an undeniably great individual season for LSU in 2023, the mandate seemed clear. The Heisman would go to the most electric quarterback in the country, irrespective of team success. Daniels was the 12th quarterback in the previous 14 years to win the award.
The top 3 finishers that year were all quarterbacks.
Then, in 2024, a non-QB won the award for the first time since 2020. It took a unique effort to win it. Travis Hunter played multiple positions and wowed the electorate, even while his Colorado team failed to make the 12-team College Football Playoff or even play for a conference title. And Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty finished second.
Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel and Miami’s Cam Ward finished a distant third and an even more distant fourth, respectively. Maybe the stranglehold quarterbacks had on the award was loosening.
Not so fast. Voting for the 2025 award showed this is still very much a quarterback-first exercise. Absent a historically dominant season from a receiver (DeVonta Smith) or a running back (Jeanty), or a generational 2-way run (Hunter), the default is still to passers.
Quarterbacks took 3 of the top 4 spots in the voting. Quarterbacks Fernando Mendoza and Diego Pavia finished first and second. But even in a quarterback-dominant final tally, it still feels like we took another step away from where we’d been.
Pavia had better numbers than Mendoza. That much is an irrefutable fact. Pavia had more passing yards, more total offense, and more 10-yard completions. He had a better yards-per-pass average. He had a better EPA per drop-back average. He had a better passing grade from PFF and more big-time throws, as graded by PFF. He had a better adjusted completion rate.
Mendoza didn’t lead the nation in Total QBR. He didn’t lead the nation in passing. He didn’t lead the nation in touchdowns responsible for. He wasn’t the highest-graded passer in the country.
Yet he won, and it wasn’t particularly close. Mendoza fit into a sweet spot for the award — good enough numbers with an elite story. He took Indiana (Indiana!) to a Big Ten title and a 13-0 record.
That victory opened yet another pathway to the award for quarterbacks.
So, I’m keeping that in mind when looking ahead to the 2026 Heisman Trophy market.
2026 Heisman Trophy favorites
Below, you’ll read 5 names. When markets open to bet on the 2026 Heisman Trophy, these are the guys I’ll be looking for.
You’ll notice that Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and Missouri running back Ahmad Hardy aren’t on the list.
Regarding Smith, his ceiling might be capped. Because of the coverage he faces — weekly brackets, double-, and triple-teams — a (DeVonta) Smith-like season seems unlikely. Additionally, if Smith were somehow to produce a season with freakish numbers, Sayin would have to get some degree of credit. Sayin’s top-4 finish already suggests he’d have enough name recognition in the eyes of voters to finish ahead of Smith or take enough votes away to prevent either from winning.
Regarding Hardy, it’s more straightforward. Jeanty produced the second-best rushing season in college football history and finished second. He was the first running back to crack the top 3 in voting since 2017. With the way the game is played now, this award just feels unattainable for running backs.
So, who should be the favorite for the award next season? Here’s who I like.
Ohio State QB Julian Sayin
I touched on Sayin already, but he seems likely to be one of the betting favorites when markets open. Sayin finished fourth in voting this season after posting 3,323 yards (11th nationally), 31 touchdowns (second), and a 78.4% completion rate (first) against just 6 interceptions.
Sayin also led the country in passer rating (182.2) and ranked second in Total QBR (89.8).
After a redshirt season in 2024, Sayin took the reins of the offense and piloted Ohio State to a 12-1 record and a runner-up finish in the Big Ten. He’ll still have Smith to throw to next season, and the receiver room is set to add another elite youngster in 2026 signee Chris Henry Jr. He’ll have Bo Jackson to hand the ball off to; Jackson became the fifth true freshman in OSU history to run for 1,000 yards. He’ll have another dominant offensive line. He’ll have all the necessary tools.
Any step from Sayin would be a problem for the rest of the Big Ten. The Buckeyes’ scoring output was down this season (34.9) from where it was during the title run in 2024 (35.7). An improved Sayin with the weapons that are around him could be the mix that produces a 40 points-per-game offense.
Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss
Ole Miss has reportedly submitted a waiver to the NCAA for another year of eligibility for Chambliss, who played 3 seasons at D2 Ferris State before transferring to Ole Miss. He threw for 3,016 yards and ran for 470 with 24 total touchdowns despite not starting until Week 3.
Chambliss can do everything — run, throw, evade pressure, and pepper defenses with downfield throws. He had 23 completions of at least 20 air yards on 41 attempts this season. He had 7 300-yard passing games. He had 5 games with at least 3 total touchdowns and no interceptions. He also had a 100-yard rushing game against Tulane on Sept. 20.
Even though Lane Kiffin has left, Chambliss has the profile to put up an elite statistical season. If the Rebels were to maintain their current form and make another run at the CFP, he’d have a pretty strong narrative as well.
Oregon QB Dante Moore
Depending on the opening Heisman Trophy odds, Moore will be the guy most worth backing. He might jump into the 2026 NFL Draft, but if he stays at Oregon (he should), he’s in store for a massive season. Moore came to Eugene seeking development. Is one season of starting experience enough to satisfy that? Bo Nix benefited from several years with Dan Lanning, and I’d wager Oregon will try to leverage that situation to keep Moore in town for another season.
Moore threw for 2,733 yards and 24 touchdowns while completing 72.5% of his throws with 6 interceptions. He was the nation’s best deep-ball passer, with a 98.5 grade on throws of 20 yards or more, per PFF. He finished 16th in Total QBR and 16th in EPA per dropback.
A return to Eugene would send Moore into his fourth season of college ball. He had 1 season of experience at UCLA before joining the Ducks, then took a redshirt year behind Dillon Gabriel in 2024.
Moore also played the entire year without his No. 1 receiver. Evan Stewart tore a patellar tendon in June and hasn’t played since. Should he return, he’d pair with star freshman Dakorien Moore to give the Ducks one of the best 1-2 punches at wideout in all of college football. If Oregon’s pursuit of a national title ends in heartbreak, maybe a guy like Kenyon Sadiq — a breakout tight end this season — decides to run it back as well.
Though the Ducks have lost offensive coordinator Will Stein to Kentucky, the pieces are there for an explosive offense in 2026 if everyone returns.
Notre Dame QB CJ Carr
Carr finished eighth in Total QBR in his first season as a starter. The redshirt freshman won a camp battle for the job and then threw for 2,741 yards with 24 touchdowns against 6 picks. Carr became the first Notre Dame quarterback to throw at least 1 touchdown in each of his first 12 starts in more than a decade. His 24 passing touchdowns were the most by an Irish passer in their first 12 starts since 1966.
If Carr can kick his addiction to intentional grounding penalties, there is nothing left in his game that warrants concern. At times this season, he looked like a future All-American. His 354-yard, 4-touchdown day against Arkansas was spectacular. His 13-for-16 day against Navy was wonderful.
“Well, those defenses were overmatched,” you might say. To which I’d direct you to look at Notre Dame’s 2026 schedule. The Irish open the season against Wisconsin at Lambeau Field. They play Miami at home on Nov. 7, 2026. They might play USC, but they might not. The rest of the schedule features Rice, Michigan State at home, Purdue, North Carolina, Navy, Boston College, SMU, Syracuse, and Stanford.
Seven of Notre Dame’s 12 opponents next season have defenses that finished outside the top 75 in adjusted EPA per play.
After being bounced from the CFP field on Selection Sunday, the Irish could be a team that tries to run up the score on anyone and everyone in 2026. As it seeks to replace the NFL-bound Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price in the backfield, giving Carr more agency to move the ball seems like the move. The connection between Carr and a healthy Jaden Greathouse could be one of the best in the country.
A Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t thrown for more than 3,200 yards in a season since 2014. If Carr does that and the Irish blitz their schedule to make it back into the CFP, he’s a finalist at a minimum.
LSU QB (Insert name here)
Chambliss became the sixth Kiffin-coached quarterback to throw for 3,000 yards in a season in the last 7 years. Jaxson Dart missed the mark in 2022 (his first year with Ole Miss) by 26 yards. Kiffin also had 3,000-yard passers in 2 of his 3 seasons as the Alabama offensive coordinator.
The Kiffin offense produces big seasons for quarterbacks. To this point, it hasn’t yielded Heisman buzz, but that could change at LSU.
And, no, the subhead here isn’t a misprint. No one knows who Kiffin’s starting quarterback will be next season. Garrett Nussmeier is heading to the NFL. Michael Van Buren Jr. closed out the 2025 season as LSU’s starter. Kiffin will certainly look to the portal for a quarterback or 2.
Many have connected departing Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt to LSU. That would be a strong addition for Kiffin. Leavitt saw his 2025 season wrecked by injury, but he threw for 2,885 yards and 24 scores as a first-time starter in 2024.
Other portal options might include (but aren’t limited to) Michigan’s Bryce Underwood, NC State’s CJ Bailey, and Florida’s DJ Lagway. LSU will be linked to big names, but even if none of them eventually come, Kiffin has shown an ability to identify high-level quarterbacks. Dart was a gem. Chambliss was a stroke of genius, and Kiffin wasted no time pivoting to him when necessary.
LSU didn’t burn through cash to bring Kiffin aboard to miss another CFP. And Kiffin didn’t leave Ole Miss to have a worse season. Expect every resource to be made available to Kiffin to build this roster. If Kiffin lands a reliable option at the position and his usual numbers follow, LSU is in a prime position to make a run at the CFP, and that will put whoever is playing quarterback squarely in the mix for the Heisman Trophy.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
