Florida game-by-game predictions: ESPN’s FPI projects Gators’ 2022 season

Florida finished its 2021 season with a disappointing 6-7 mark. A year after winning the SEC East, the Gators went just 2-6 in conference play.

It’s a new era of Florida football as the 2022 season begins Billy Napier’s tenure. The former Louisiana head coach assembled a new-look staff, declining to retain any of Dan Mullen’s assistant coaches.

The Gators turn to Gainesville’s own Anthony Richardson as the starting quarterback. In 8 appearances as a redshirt freshman in 2021, Richardson flashed eye-catching athleticism and impressive arm strength as a dual-threat QB, accounting for 6 touchdowns (3 rushing, 3 passing).

Richardson is the face of the 2022 team, but the Gators return other notable talents. Former 5-star recruits Brenton Cox, Gervon Dexter and Jason Marshall will help lead a defense under a new scheme. Napier turned to the transfer portal in the offseason to address needs at running back, wide receiver, defensive back and offensive line.

After settling a few starting spots in fall camp, the Gators enter a challenging September slate, kicking off with Utah. In addition to the usual conference schedule of SEC East rivals and LSU, Florida travels to Texas A&M for its rotating SEC West contest.

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), a simulation-based measure of team strength, has Florida favored in 7 regular-season contests. Here are the projections for every game:

• Sept. 3 vs. Utah – 52.1% chance of winning
• Sept. 10 vs. Kentucky – 51.1% chance of winning
• Sept. 17 vs. USF – 87.7% chance of winning
• Sept. 24 at Tennessee – 39.8% chance of winning
• Oct. 1 vs. Eastern Washington – 96.9% chance of winning
• Oct. 8 vs. Missouri – 78.3% chance of winning
• Oct. 15 vs. LSU – 44.7% chance of winning
• Oct. 29 vs. Georgia (in Jacksonville) – 9.6% chance of winning
• Nov. 5 at Texas A&M – 29.7% chance of winning
• Nov. 12 vs. South Carolina – 69.9% chance of winning
• Nov. 19 at Vanderbilt – 86.8% chance of winning
• Nov. 25 at Florida State – 44.3% chance of winning

Andrew Olson

Andrew writes about sports to fund his love of live music and collection of concert posters. He strongly endorses the Hall of Fame campaigns of Fred Taylor and Andruw Jones.