The Saturday Down South staff returns for another week to give their ATS picks for some of the top college football games.
In Week 7, we have some massive matchups across the board. Top-10 teams go on the road to battle ranked opponents in the noon ET window. Indiana-Oregon and OU-Texas compete in the mid-day slots on CBS and ABC. And several juicy SEC matchups take center stage in the evening window.
Let’s dive in.
(Editor’s note: All odds for this piece might not necessarily reflect current odds.)
Week 7 college football picks
Here’s how the crew picked 10 of the biggest games in Week 7. If you want to bet alongside the guys, check out our guide on the best sports betting apps to score a sign-up bonus at your shop of choice.
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 17 Illinois
Spenser Davis: Here’s a stat I stumbled onto this week. Ohio State opponents have had 36 plays this season where they’ve faced third-and-8 or longer against the Buckeyes. They’ve converted twice. Sustaining drives has proven to be impossible against Ohio State. Illinois has a 43% success rate on late downs, according to CFB-Graphs, so there’s not much reason to think the Illini will be able to buck that trend in any significant way. PICK: Ohio State -14
Andy Olson: After watching Ohio State have to pull away late at Washington, I’m a little hesitant to lay 14 on the road, but I’ve talked myself into it. The Buckeyes just have so many advantages in this matchup that they should be able to get a cover. PICK: Ohio State -14
Derek Peterson: I’m on Ohio State this week. The Illini defense has some serious issues and the Buckeye defense is the best in the country. Any giveaway from Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer will turn this into a laugher quickly. Altmyer hasn’t been good when pressured, the defense has either produced turnovers or gotten pushed around, and the Buckeyes have allowed 2 offensive touchdowns in 20 quarters of football this season. PICK: Ohio State -14.5
Adam Spencer: I’m going to do this just to be different. I like Illinois. I picked the Illini to make the College Football Playoff this year. I also picked Ohio State to make the Playoff, but I digress. Bret Bielema has turned Champaign into a tough place to play. The Illini lose, but they cover the spread. PICK: Illinois +14.5
Ethan Stone: I am in desperate need of a good week here. Ohio State is the best team in the country until proven otherwise, and Illinois has been exposed against superior competition already. PICK: Ohio State -14
No. 8 Alabama at No. 14 Mizzou
SD: This is a really tough spot for Alabama. The Tide have faced 2 very strong opponents over the past couple of weeks in Georgia and Vanderbilt. They also have Tennessee on deck to look forward to. Mizzou also has a potential game-breaker with Ahmad Hardy. It’s an ideal set of circumstances for the Tigers and I think they will take advantage. PICK: Mizzou +3.5
AO: Mizzou couldn’t ask for a better setup to face Alabama than after back-to-back taxing wins over ranked opponents. While I’m still high on this Crimson Tide, getting 3.5 makes feel good about the chances of an MU cover at home. PICK: Mizzou +3.5
DP: On the road, after an emotional victory that had the full focus of every person in the Alabama locker room, against a better Missouri team than the Vandy unit they just faced, I’m fading the Crimson Tide. PICK: Mizzou +3.5
AS: This is a tough spot for Mizzou. The Tigers are legit and deserving of respect, but Alabama and QB Ty Simpson are hitting their stride. I think this will be a back-and-forth game, but Alabama covers at the end with a walk-off field goal – the latest in a long line of disappointing losses for Mizzou in my lifetime. PICK: Alabama -2.5
ES: My gut tells me to take Alabama here. I love Ahmad Hardy and the Mizzou offense, but Alabama is the toughest team they’ve faced yet this year. PICK: Alabama -3
No. 7 Indiana at No. 3 Oregon
SD: A week ago at this number, I probably would have picked the Ducks. After seeing Penn State put up absolutely zero resistance against UCLA last weekend, I have to downgrade the Ducks a bit. I like the Hoosiers to cover here. PICK: Indiana +7.5
AO: Indiana made me eat my words against Illinois. So, yeah, I won’t doubt them as a favorite. But as the underdog? I’m still not sold on the Hoosiers. Feels like Indiana is about to become the latest Big Ten team to have a miserable long flight home. PICK: Oregon -7
DP: I like the Ducks here. They are very rarely a single-digit favorite at home, but when they have been under Lanning, they have blown expectations out of the water. This isn’t like when Ohio State came to town. PICK: Oregon -7.5
AS: I don’t want to disrespect Indiana. The Hoosiers were impressive in their embarrassment of Illinois a couple of weeks ago. But this game is out in Eugene. Autzen Stadium will be rocking. Fernando Mendoza is used to the West Coast, having played at Cal, but it’s a tough trip for the rest of the Hoosiers. PICK: Oregon -7
ES: Oregon has looked really, really good through the first 6 weeks of the season, and Indiana having to travel 3000 miles for this matchup brings very real fatigue. PICK: Oregon -7
No. 6 Oklahoma vs. Texas
SD: I don’t mean to pile on, but Arch Manning has been dreadful this year. He threw 2 picks against Florida and I think he was actually worse than his final stat line indicated. He’ll now face an Oklahoma defense that might be the best in the country. I think the Sooners should be favored in this game, all things considered. Truth be told, I think OU will close as a favorite in this game if Mateer continues to trend toward playing on Saturday. PICK: Oklahoma +2.5
AO: John Mateer is the big storyline, but I have a hard time seeing the Texas offense do much against the Oklahoma defense. I’ll gladly take OU with points while I can get it. PICK: Oklahoma +1.5
DP: The Texas offense sucks. The OU defense is amazing. And John Mateer might be back. Boomer, baby. PICK: Oklahoma +1.5
AS: This line has been all over the place. I get it. No one knows if John Mateer is playing. I don’t think it matters one way or the other, though. The story here is Oklahoma’s incredible defense against the struggling Texas offense. Oklahoma wins outright. PICK: Oklahoma +1.5
ES: Oklahoma’s defense has already made one talented young quarterback struggle this season. This Longhorns offense has been very underwhelming against teams with a pulse, and the Sooners have one of the best defenses in the country. Not to mention, John Mateer is back. That should about do it. PICK: Oklahoma +1.5
Arkansas at No. 12 Tennessee
SD: I don’t feel great about this, but I’ll take the Hogs to cover. Teams have generally performed well after coaching changes this year. I’m also on Tennessee’s team total under given some of the dynamics in this game. The Vols also have a trip to Tuscaloosa on deck, making it a look-ahead spot for them. PICK: Arkansas +13
AO: I’m not sold that offensive genius Bobby Petrino fixed the Arkansas defense by making some staff changes during the bye week after Sam Pittman’s firing. I’ll take the Vols to roll on Rocky Top. PICK: Tennessee -12.5
DP: Does Bobby Petrino want this job permanently? If he does (and there’s no reason he wouldn’t), this is a “gotta have it” kind of game. The total here is absolutely outrageous, and I don’t think Arkansas lays another egg offensively against a defense that hasn’t found its bearings yet this season. In a shootout, I’m backing the Hogs. PICK: Arkansas +12.5
AS: As of Friday morning, I’m getting this pick at Tennessee –11.5. I love that. I was worried a bit more with some of the higher lines earlier in the week, but now ESPN Bet has the Vols as 11.5-point favorites. Both teams will put up points, but the Vols will take control in the second half as Arkansas makes yet another critical mistake. PICK: Tennessee -11.5
ES: This might be a race to 40. Both offenses are great, and both have gargantuan holes on defense. Jermod McCoy isn’t going to be back for this one and this line is absolutely massive. Love Arkansas to cover here, but they aren’t winning in Neyland Stadium. PICK: Arkansas +12.5
Florida at No. 5 Texas A&M
SD: I like the Aggies this week. I’m not sure Texas A&M is actually a top-5 team in the country, but I’ll back them against a Florida team that has consistently underperformed on the road under Billy Napier. It helps, of course, that Florida is coming off a great performance at home last week against Texas. I’ll happily take a better price to sell UF as it goes on the road to face a strong opponent. PICK: Texas A&M -7.5
AO: I want to believe that after having a good game against Texas, DJ Lagway is back to the QB we saw last year. I want to believe that the addition of Dallas Wilson got the Florida passing attack on track. But as much as I want to tell myself the Gators can do it again, Texas A&M is undefeated for a reason and road games against good teams have not gone well for Billy Napier. PICK: Texas A&M -7.5
DP: Florida pressed its advantage at the line of scrimmage to overwhelm Texas last week at home. I don’t think the Gators can follow that same script on the road in College Station. A&M is for real. PICK: Texas A&M -7.5
AS: Billy Napier doesn’t win road games against ranked teams. Mike Elko doesn’t lose home games against unranked teams. The Aggies will set Cashius Howell loose on a hobbled DJ Lagway and things will get ugly for the Gators. PICK: Texas A&M -7.5
ES: Beating a bad Texas offense at home is nice and will keep Billy Napier his job for a while longer, but Texas A&M at Kyle Field is a different monster. I like the Aggies big here. PICK: Texas A&M -7.5
No. 10 Georgia at Auburn
SD: I picked Auburn to win outright in my money line upset predictions this week. I’ll stand by that here, obviously. I don’t like Auburn’s QB situation, but even with Jackson Arnold weighing the Tigers down, they have played Oklahoma and Texas A&M to within a 1 score game on the road this year. I don’t think this Georgia team is anywhere close to a juggernaut. I think Auburn could surprise a lot of people in its first major home game of the season. PICK: Auburn +3.5
AO: It’s a bit strange to have concerns about a Georgia team protecting its own quarterback and getting to the opposing QB. From what I’ve seen of this UGA team in SEC play, though, the Dawgs are still tough enough to go into Jordan-Hare and do enough to win – and cover. PICK: Georgia -3.5
DP: I don’t trust Georgia. I don’t think Georgia is anywhere close to the program we thought it was on the heels of consecutive national championships. But I also just can’t get there with this Auburn team. There are too many problems to fix on offense. Too many holes. Too many deficiencies. Too many inconsistencies. PICK: Georgia -3.5
AS: Georgia can’t rush the passer, which is unfortunate, as Jackson Arnold is horrible against pressure. I think Auburn will put up some points in this one as the Tigers remember Cam Coleman exists. However, I also expect Georgia to put up plenty of points. I like Gunner Stockton to make plays with his arm and his legs, leading to a Georgia win by a touchdown. PICK: Georgia -3.5
ES: Auburn is not a bad football team. The Tigers’ pass rush is legit, and the Georgia offensive line is struggling to put it lightly. The Tigers get the home crowd at their back. Auburn danced with Oklahoma and Texas A&M already this year and they got a bye week to work it all out. Everything tells me to pick Auburn, but I saw Gunner Stockton and Kirby Smart operating earlier this year in Neyland Stadium – and I still just don’t trust Jackson Arnold to get it done. Sorry, Tigers. PICK: Georgia -3.5
No. 15 Michigan at USC
SD: I think Michigan wins this game outright. I don’t trust this USC passing offense to remain elite against strong competition. On the other side of the ball, the Trojans have some injury issues at cornerback that could create opportunities for Bryce Underwood to throw the ball downfield. Lastly, it’s a lookahead spot for USC with Notre Dame on deck. PICK: Michigan +2.5
AO: This is one of those times I’m going to back the home team in what projects to be a close one. USC’s defense had a poor showing against Illinois, but the Trojans have had an extra week to work on things. I ultimately trust Jayden Maiava and the offense to score a little too much for Bryce Underwood on the road. PICK: USC -2.5
DP: Since the Trojans joined the Big Ten, conference teams that have flown to Los Angeles are 0-5 ATS. Though USC doesn’t have the kind of gameday atmosphere that really tilts the field, no one has really figured out the travel yet. Plus, USC has one of the best quarterbacks in the country to go at a defense that is pretty average defending the throw game. PICK: USC -2.5
AS: They say home-field advantage is about a 2-3 point swing for a line. I also think an Eastern time zone team traveling to the California coast should be worth 1-2 points on the spread. This is my way of saying I don’t think USC is getting enough credit here. The Trojans take care of business at home and win by at least a field goal. PICK: USC -2.5
ES: Michigan is by far the best defense USC has played this season. I don’t love that the Wolverines have to travel so far to play a great quarterback in Jayden Maiava, but I really don’t think the right team is favored here. USC’s defense is just not good enough to pressure Bryce Underwood and create problems for the Wolverines’ offense. PICK: Michigan +2.5
South Carolina at No. 11 LSU
SD: Look, it’s completely within the realm of possibility that LSU’s bye week was enough to fix its offense and get Garrett Nussmeier healthy. But if that didn’t happen, it seems like a good time to buy low on South Carolina. LaNorris Sellers has been much improved over his past couple of weeks. I like the Gamecocks here. PICK: South Carolina +9.5
AO: Neither QB has lived up to the preseason hype. I know South Carolina is feeling the pressure to get a win at the start of this 5-game gauntlet, but the Gamecocks still have Mike Shula calling plays against a standout LSU defense in Death Valley at night. I feel better about the chances of the Tigers getting right during the bye week than this Gamecocks team covering in the toughest SEC environment. PICK: LSU -8.5
DP: Low-scoring game for me. I think LSU’s defense can smother South Carolina a bit because of the lack of rushing success so far this season for the Gamecocks. LSU has yet to show it can really open up on a quality opponent. South Carolina had a lead at Mizzou going into the fourth quarter, and that Tiger team is better than this Tiger team. The Gamecocks ultimately lost by 9, so I’m glad I can still get 9.5 here. PICK: South Carolina +9.5
AS: I’m going to keep riding with LSU. South Carolina hasn’t been able to get anything going offensively this year and I think Blake Baker is going to coach circles around Mike Shula. I expect Garrett Nussmeier to at least look slightly healthier than he did his last time out. And Mansoor Delane is going to take away half of the field for LaNorris Sellers. LSU wins by 10. PICK: LSU -8
ES: LSU’s offense just isn’t good enough to take them to win this game by more than 2 possessions. Death Valley should win in the end, but I don’t see a blowout here. PICK: South Carolina +9.5
No. 21 Arizona State at Utah
SD: Arizona State can’t stop the run and Utah was impressive in a blowout win in Morgantown last time out. Both teams are coming off a bye. With the Utes at home, I think this number is too short. PICK: Utah -5.5
AO: They won’t be clanging cowbells in Salt Lake City, but I still have some concerns about this Arizona State team in a tough road environment. I naturally gravitate to Utah at home and I’m going to trust Rice-Eccles and the MUSS again this week. PICK: Utah -5.5
DP: Starting Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt is doubtful to play on Saturday, with head coach Kenny Dillingham saying it would take a “mini-miracle” to get him ready for kickoff. That means ASU will be turning to Jeff Sims as its starting quarterback for a night game at Rice-Eccles Stadium. That means I will be taking Utah at any number available. PICK: Utah -7.5
AS: I wish I’d gotten this line earlier in the week like these guys, but I’ll stick with the Utes. Arizona State has struggled on the road this year, losing at Mississippi State and barely escaping at Baylor. I think the Utes are significantly better than those squads, so they win by 8+ points over the Sun Devils at home. PICK: Utah -7.5
ES: Arizona State has played 2 close games on the road, and neither of the teams they faced were as good as Utah. As Spenser pointed out, the Sun Devils cannot stop the run and Utah is the best rushing team in the Big 12 at 242 rushing yards per game. These Sun Devils aren’t the same as last year’s. PICK: Utah -5.5
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
